NFL Week 17 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Here are my NFL Week 17 best bets:

 

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Indianapolis Colts at New York Giants +8

The New York Giants are the front-runners for the No. 1 pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. The G-Men have not won a game since October 6th and have lost ten consecutive games. They are an absolute mess. However, as a lifelong Colts fan and a former season ticket holder, I must ask, “Who the hell are the Colts to be laying over a touchdown to anyone, especially on the road?”

Anthony Richardson is still a major work in progress and ranks second worst of 34 qualified quarterbacks in turnover-worthy play rate. He only threw 11 passes last week vs. Tennessee and the Colts scored 38 points. That is highly unlikely to happen again.

Hold your nose on this one.

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: New York Giants +8

Detroit Lions at San Francisco 49ers +3.5

Last year, the Lions and 49ers met in the NFC Championship. San Francisco rallied from a 17-point deficit to win 34-31 and reach the Super Bowl. The 49ers closed as 7.5-point favorites in that game and now find themselves as 3.5-point underdogs.

This time around, the Lions are playing for an NFC North division lead and trying to put themselves in the driver’s seat for home-field advantage throughout the playoffs. Meanwhile, the 49ers are already eliminated from the playoffs and have been done in by injuries to star players like Christian McCaffrey, Brandon Aiyuk, and Trent Williams.

While Detroit has everything to play for, they also have a defense that is banged up and is 30th in EPA/play over the last month. The Lions have been able to mask their defensive woes by outscoring teams with lackluster offenses like Chicago, Indianapolis, and Jacksonville that could not keep up in a shootout. 

The Niners are clearly down but still rate Top 10 in Offense DVOA. They are also very good against the pass defensively (5th DVOA) and now have Nick Bosa and Talanoga Hufanga to bolster that unit.

The stakes and the trends all favor Detroit, and yet we have not seen much line movement towards a club that has been one of the best in the league ATS (10-5) against one of the league’s worst (5-10 ATS).

NFL Week 17 Best Bet: San Francisco 49ers +3.5

BEST OF THE REST
Cardinals +7 -120 at Rams
Saints +7.5/Packers +7.5 (6-point teaser)
Panthers +8.5 at Buccaneers

For more NFL Week 17 best bets, visit the NFL Week 17 hub exclusively on VSiN.com.

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