NFL Survivor Picks

Week 17 is a rough one for Survivor players using the rule from the Circa contest. The “Christmas Week” only features the two games on Wednesday and the one on Thursday. For a lot of contestants, teams like the Chiefs and Ravens have been used at earlier times, leaving very few options for what we’ll call “Week 17a”.

Most contests don’t use those rules, so it’s just business as usual in those for people who are still left standing. I’ve been using the Circa Survivor rules throughout, so much like I did for Thanksgiving, I’ll be looking over the Christmas options.

 

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This will be a shortened look, but I wish all of you a happy and healthy holiday season.

(Leaving this in from last week) The question always comes up about hedging. When my partner Marc Goldberg (Spooky Express) and I got deeper into the season, we started trading and swapping pieces and parts of entries with our Circa Survivor competitors so that we had some equity in other people that had different teams than we did. That is definitely an option for you if you are in a contest that big or even in a smaller contest. Reach out to those still alive and see if some 10%, 15%, etc. swaps would interest them. That way, you don’t leave empty-handed for all of the hard work to this point.

If you don’t want to get others involved, you can play against your pick or on/against the available teams of others, but that can be a deep rabbit hole that can be very costly. It’s an option, but make sure you plan it out really well, as you would any option at this point.

It is still critically important to look at the team schedules the rest of the way and make sure that you are using the team in question at the most optimal time possible. The Survivor tools over at PoolGenius can help with that, and so can this week’s article.

Christmas/Day After

Baltimore Ravens (-5.5) over Houston Texans

Let me preface this by saying that I made myself a rule that I would not duplicate teams when I could help it. Even though my Survivor “entry” with this article was done back in Week 1, I haven’t repeated a team yet. My goal late in the season is to give those still alive a chance to take a team that they likely have.

I picked the Ravens back in Week 2 when they lost to the Raiders at home. This week, they’re on the road against the Texans, but it seems as though Houston may be resting some guys or not going full throttle at a minimum. Houston could move up to No. 3, but the difference between No. 3 and No. 4 is nominal at best. With Tank Dell going down last week, it may make sense to protect Nico Collins at all costs and protect other key players as well.

As a result, we’ve seen this line jump. This may be a skeleton crew for the Texans based on the line action and that makes the Ravens a decent look. The Ravens are 70% to win per PoolGenius.

Christmas/Day After Pick

Seattle Seahawks (-3.5) over Chicago Bears

The Seahawks are going on a business trip. The Bears would rather be anywhere else on the Christmas holiday. It’s likely that the fans would rather be anywhere else as well. It is a long trip on a short week for Seattle on Thursday, but they still very much have something to play for and the Bears do not.

Caleb Williams looked a lot better last week, but Chicago has still lost nine in a row. The other element of this handicap is that I do think that more contestants will have Seattle than Baltimore, so I feel a bit better about that. These two offenses are actually pretty similar in EPA/play since Week 11, but Seattle’s defense has taken a massive step forward as the season has gone along.

They’re sixth in EPA/play since Week 11. The Bears are dead last and that was thought to be the strength of their defense. I fully expect Seattle to hold down Chicago’s offense and get the win. PoolGenius lists the Seahawks at 65% to win.

Christmas Survivor Pick: Seahawks

Week 17 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Indianapolis Colts (-8) over New York Giants

This is just a numbers play. The Colts will be a popular pick for a lot of people given that they are still available and they are over a touchdown favorite, as flawed as they are. The Giants looked awful last week, have looked awful for most of the season, and there is tremendous incentive to be as bad as possible in hopes of getting Shedeur Sanders.

The Colts are not mathematically eliminated from the playoffs yet, though they will likely be by Sunday’s kickoff. So, that’s the chief concern here, as going outside to play at the Meadowlands might not matter much.

The Colts are 78% to win per PoolGenius and 43 of the remaining 45 in Circa Survivor have Indy available.

Buffalo Bills (-9.5) over New York Jets

I can’t imagine a lot of entries in your pool have the Bills available. Only seven of the remaining 45 in Circa Survivor have them. But, again, based on the number alone, this is an obvious consideration. The Jets have had one of the worst defenses in the league this season and the Bills can exploit that.

One thing that is a worry is that what happens on Wednesday can dictate whether or not the Bills still have a chance at the No. 1 seed. I’m not sure they’d bench Josh Allen outright, but you never know.

The Bills are 78% to win per PoolGenius.

Week 17 NFL Survivor Pick

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-8) over Carolina Panthers

The Buccaneers are still on my available list and are available for 20 of the 45 Circa Survivor entrants, so I feel confident in taking them here and suggesting them as a pick for those who might be seeking some guidance.

The Bucs lost control of their own destiny in the NFC South with last week’s loss to the Cowboys, but they still have a lot to play for. The Panthers are much improved, but they’re still lacking defensively as a bottom-five unit in EPA/play since Week 11. The Bucs are actually second in EPA/play on defense and a top-10 offensive unit in that span.

I don’t mind taking the Colts either; I’m just worried about their mindset based on Saturday’s outcomes. Keep in mind that you can likely play it by ear with this and wait it out as long as your contest allows.

The Bucs are 75% to win per PoolGenius.

Follow the link for the rest of our NFL Week 17 content.

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