NFL Week 2 Best Bets and Predictions:

We had a wild NFL Week 1 featuring major upsets (I’m looking at you, Bengals) and wild finishes starting with Thursday Night Football. Leading into NFL Week 2, there is going to be a lot made of quarterback play.

The three rookie quarterback starters struggled, but each showed glimpses of why they were drafted so high. I did not make any major adjustments to their rankings. I will be keeping an eye on Bo Nix’s rushing props. He’s clearly going to get more run opportunities than I expected, as is Jayden Daniels, who carried the ball 16 times in Week 1.

 

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The major quarterback adjustments for me came from the four injured quarterbacks who returned to the field: Kirk Cousins, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, and Joe Burrow. None of them look close to 100% healthy. Of the four, Cousins is the furthest from being “back.” He could not move at all in the pocket, and because of it, the playcalling was very predictable. When the Falcons were in shotgun, they passed. When they were in pistol, they ran. It was that simple.

Cousins is someone who has always excelled in play-action. That is a problem when you cannot move. Cousins averaged 3.1 yards of movement on all throws, nine total feet. He didn’t have the drive on the ball we have seen before and could not push it downfield. All that being said, the biggest issue is now everyone knows it. Going into last week, the Steelers prepared for last year’s Kirk Cousins. Now the Eagles can prepare for Week 1 Kirk Cousins. That is going to be a problem for the Falcons.

Jones, Rodgers and Burrow also looked less than themselves in Week 1. Rodgers still has the arm talent, but the mobility is still in question. Burrow had no interest in pushing the ball downfield, which could change with a healthy receiving core, but it is something to keep an eye on. Then there is Jones. He was bad, very bad, in Week 1. His knee, which he is returning from ahead of schedule, does not look 100%. If he can’t run, there will be problems. While no one was high on the Giants coming into the season, this just worsens things. I am noting it because if he does improve health-wise, there may be a time the market is low on this team.

Now let’s look at the biggest two power rankings adjustments that I made from the games this week:

Move them up: Dallas Cowboys

This would be the 49ers, but they are already the #1 team in my rankings. If they are not yours, your regular-season rankings are incorrect.

This Cowboys team seemed to be written off as dead this offseason. The market gave up on their chances to win the NFC East, and the Cowboys missing the playoffs became a hot take turned cold by the number of people running with it. While the demise of Big D may need to wait, the offense looked good outside on the road against a good Browns defense. That is the side of the ball with my biggest question marks, and they answered the bell.

Move them down: New York Jets

The Panthers fell to last in my rankings in a two-team race with the Patriots, and the Falcons dropped simply because of Cousins’ health, but this has to go to the Jets. While the offensive line was okay, the lack of playmaking outside of Wilson was noticeable. Additionally, this defensive line was a mess. They played a middling offensive line in the 49ers and got zero pressure on Purdy. The entire defense was predicated on getting pressure from the front four, and there was none. They have awesome cornerbacks, but if an NFL quarterback has a clean pocket all day, it doesn’t matter; they are going to get cut up. In the offseason, they lost three pieces on the D-line, and the replacements simply could not cut it.

Early Week 2 plays:

I locked in Seahawks -3 on Ready, Set, Bet on Sunday. That’s already moved to -3.5, so we will have to look elsewhere for this week’s play. Make sure you are watching on Sunday during the Sunday Night game. We went 3-0 on in-game plays while also locking in two bets that have already moved.

Let’s go to Monday Night Football for this week’s play. I mentioned that the Eagles now have a script to beat the Falcons. I expect that will create massive issues for Atlanta’s offense in this spot. Right now, the Eagles are -6.5 at home. They should have no problem scoring versus this Falcons defense, which cannot generate pressure and will be able to gash them on the ground as well.

I’ve got this game at Eagles -8 after the downgrade for Cousins’ health and the upgrade of the Eagles offense after the adjustments we saw under new offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. Let’s lay it before this hits 7.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Eagles -6.5

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