NFL Week 2 Best Bets:

Let’s look at my NFL Week 2 best bets.

 

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Indianapolis Colts (-3) at Green Bay Packers

1:00 p.m. (FOX)

When a star quarterback goes down, the quality of the backup immediately goes up for debate. In the case of the Packers, who lost starter Jordan Love to a knee injury in a season-opening loss in Brazil, there is no debate. The unanimous opinion is that Malik Willis is not a quality backup.

The lookahead line for this game showed Green Bay as a 5-point favorite against Indianapolis. With Love lost, the line shifted in the Colts’ favor, surging as high as -3.5 early this week. The adjustment of eight points is a sign of disrespect for Willis, who was acquired in an Aug. 26 trade with Tennessee. Willis has made three NFL starts, all during his 2022 rookie season, with a record of 1-2. He did not pass for at least 100 yards in any of the starts, so it seems the Packers are in big trouble if Love is inactive Sunday, as expected.

Still, a case can be made that the major adjustment is an overreaction. Packers coach Matt LaFleur will form a game plan that plays to Willis’ few strengths and hides his many weaknesses. Green Bay can do that by running the ball, something it did well against the Eagles by rushing 21 times for 163 yards (7.8 per carry), and setting up Willis for short throws to a talented group of wideouts, tight ends and running backs. Josh Jacobs, who carried 16 times for 84 yards against Philadelphia, will be the focus of the offense instead of Willis.

In a loss to the Texans, the Indianapolis defense was on the field for 76 plays and allowed 417 total yards, including 159 rushing yards to Joe Mixon. The Colts also have an inconsistent and inexperienced quarterback, Anthony Richardson, who’s not going to trot onto Lambeau Field and remind anyone of Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck.

If Green Bay gets a little efficient play from Willis and a lot more from its ground attack and defense, that should be enough. The Packers will be hungry home ‘dogs. While the line has dipped to 2.5 at most books, DraftKings still is offering +3, so take it.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Packers +3

Seattle Seahawks (-3) at New England Patriots

1:00 p.m. (FOX)

New England will not win many games this season, and it certainly won’t win due to its quarterback play, but the Patriots can prevail in this one with a strong running attack and a defense that held the Bengals to 224 total yards in Week 1. Rhamondre Stevenson carried the ball 25 times for 120 yards in the 16-10 win at Cincinnati. Seattle’s offense is not at full strength, with right tackle George Fant (knee) and running back Kenneth Walker (abdominal strain) listed as questionable. It’s possible the Patriots could start 2-0 and not win again in the next two months.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Patriots +3

New York Jets (-3.5) at Tennessee Titans

1:00 p.m. (CBS)

Tennessee blew a 17-0 lead in a 24-17 loss at Chicago — handing me an early betting battle scar — but there were plenty of positive takeaways for the Titans, who showed a much-improved defense. The Bears were limited to 148 total yards and 2.8 yards per play. It’s not a given that Aaron Rodgers and the Jets will bounce back from a lopsided loss at San Francisco on Monday. Rodgers looked old and slow and triggered few big plays. Meanwhile, the New York defense was physically punished up front and allowed 401 yards, including 180 on the ground. The Titans would be wise to run Tony Pollard and Tyjae Spears and keep the ball out of the hands of error-prone quarterback Will Levis as much as possible.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Titans +3.5

Cincinnati Bengals at Kansas City Chiefs (-6)

4:25 p.m. (CBS)

Overreactions are common mistakes made by NFL handicappers. The teams that looked bad last week are often the teams to bet on this week. The Bengals, who were especially bad in a loss to the Patriots, are capable of turning things around in Kansas City. Joe Burrow, who has three head-to-head wins against Patrick Mahomes, will be motivated to quiet the critics and prove his wrist is not injured. The Chiefs were exposed as vulnerable on defense in a season-opening thriller against the Ravens, who totaled 74 plays and 452 yards. The Bengals could come up short, but they should hang tough and stay within the number.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Bengals +6

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5) at Denver Broncos

4:25 p.m. (CBS)

This was supposed to be Russell Wilson’s homecoming game in Denver, and the Broncos were supposed to be hellbent on beating their former quarterback who was disliked by most of his teammates. But Justin Fields, who led the offense to six field goals in a win at Atlanta, is getting another start for the Steelers instead. Pittsburgh’s obvious advantage is a T.J. Watt-led defensive front that will pressure Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix. Steelers coach Mike Tomlin is at his best as an underdog, which he proved again last week. The coach in that role here is Sean Payton, and Denver looks like an underrated home ‘dog.

NFL Week 2 Best Bet: Broncos +2.5

Last week: 2-3 against the spread

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