NFL Survivor Picks

Harsh reminders of how difficult a simple concept can be usually don’t happen in Week 1, but the Bengals lost to the Patriots and knocked out a ton of Survivor contestants in the process. On the surface, a Survivor contest looks so easy. The team that you pick just has to win. Taking the biggest favorite on the board feels like a reasonable course of action, but it didn’t work out.

I can’t even say that there was a lesson to be learned. The consensus worst team in the NFL beat a team favored to make the playoffs. It was just bad luck and there is no room for bad luck in Survivor because you have to survive to advance and can’t advance if you don’t survive.

 

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Cincinnati falling short knocked out over 34% of the Circa Survivor field and likely much higher percentages of contestants in private or public Survivor pools. For those still alive, your buy-in and entry have a whole lot more equity right off the bat, so it is a great position to be in.

As I said last week, I would treat this column like a Survivor entry until I couldn’t anymore. Well, the Bengals were the official pick, but at least I don’t have to worry about the question of whether or not to allow teams I’ve used back into the mix because there was only one of them. I did lose some of the Circa Survivor entries I am a part of, but we opted not to use the Bengals with some of them.

Either way, I’d still be doing this column all season and my goal remains the same to present the top options and the one that I would ultimately take.

Also, our friends at PoolGenius have some very cool NFL Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em tools to check out. I will be working those into the analysis this season as well. This was also an interesting article from PoolGenius regarding the Circa Survivor field and projecting pick popularity.

Week 2 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5) over Carolina Panthers

En route to being one of the final 13 entries left standing last season, my partner Marc Goldberg (@FightOnSpooky on X; SpookyExpress.com) and I never picked a road team. There is a certain level of concern with taking a team that has had to travel to a hostile environment. In the case of the Chargers, it is a long trip for an early kickoff, but probably about as docile of an environment as you will find these days.

The Panthers looked terrible in Week 1, trailing 17-0 after the first quarter and 47-10 when the final seconds ticked off the clock. It is hard to expect a big turnaround from one week to the next, given that Bryce Young still didn’t play well and the run defense will take a hit with Derrick Brown out for the season.

The Chargers want to run the rock and should find success doing so. And who knows, maybe Justin Herbert will look better in Week 2 after missing the preseason.

PoolGenius likes the Chargers to win 68% of the time.

Detroit Lions (-7.5) over Tampa Bay Buccaneers

If you are in a Survivor pool without holiday considerations, the Lions, Cowboys, and Texans are on your short list. The Texans play the Ravens on Christmas and the Lions play the Bears on Thanksgiving. Even though you probably don’t want to take the Texans against the Ravens, you still want as many of those Christmas teams available as possible. That’s why I’m not writing up the Texans, even though they should beat the Bears. If that isn’t your concern, by all means take a deeper look at Houston.

The Lions are an option because the Cowboys face the Giants on Turkey Day, though you do have to be cognizant of the fact that injuries do happen and taking Dallas may not seem as surefire as it is now.

If November 28 doesn’t have to be on your radar, the Lions indoors as more than a touchdown favorite seem pretty attractive. If it does, you may want to hold off. Hell, you may want to hold off anyway because the Buccaneers offense looked quite good last week, but the Lions are a big favorite and all big favorites are worthy of consideration by default.

PoolGenius has the Lions tied as the top pick at 80%.

Jacksonville Jaguars (-3) over Cleveland Browns

The Browns are a Hot Mess Express right now. Not only does Deshaun Watson look cooked, but he’s dealing with yet another lawsuit. Apparently he’ll at least start at QB for Cleveland, but this could be a week where Jameis Winston hears his name called at some point. Honestly, that would scare me a little, since Winston at least gives Kevin Stefanski the downfield dynamic he had with Joe Flacco last season.

But, for now, the Browns are a soap opera per usual and the Jaguars certainly played well enough to beat the Dolphins last week. As a Browns fan and avid watcher, I’ve found Cleveland’s major defensive deficiency to be an aerial passing attack. As I wrote about in my Week 2 NFL Predictions column, Trevor Lawrence has no problem going deep and has weapons like Christian Kirk and Brian Thomas Jr. with which to do it. If Myles Garrett is truly dinged up, Lawrence should have more time to throw.

You could save Jacksonville for one of the two London games against the Bears and Patriots, which do seem safer, but I do like them to win and cover.

The Jaguars are 57% at PoolGenius, slightly less than what the betting market currently implies on the moneyline.

Philadelphia Eagles (-6.5) over Atlanta Falcons

Kirk Cousins didn’t look right planting and throwing off of his right foot in last week’s loss to the Steelers. I’m not sure that gets better from last week to this week and we’ve seen the Eagles get bumped into a bigger favorite over the Falcons. Jalen Hurts is about as healthy as he’s going to be and you don’t hate that.

That being said, this is kind of a token mention of the Eagles because you’d like to save them if possible. They are an option in Week 6 vs. Cleveland, Week 7 at the Giants, Week 11 on a short week against a rookie QB in Jayden Daniels, Week 14 vs. Carolina, Week 15 vs. Pittsburgh, and, if you make it, Week 18 against the Giants at home. But, I can’t hate on taking them here and there are no holiday worries.

The Eagles are at 69% (nice) per PoolGenius.

NFL Week 2 Survivor Pick

Baltimore Ravens (-8) over Las Vegas Raiders

Well, let’s try this again with a big AFC North favorite. The situation might be a bit different here, as the Ravens are a more buttoned-up ballclub than the Bengals and their QB doesn’t seem to be favoring his right wrist. The Ravens are on extra rest off of losing to the Chiefs, potentially by a toenail, and the Raiders are not, with a long trek to the East Coast making it something of a short week.

This is the biggest coaching mismatch of the week with John Harbaugh up against Antonio Pierce. Baltimore racked up 6.1 yards per play on the KC defense and they don’t have to worry about Patrick Mahomes or a bunch of explosive weapons this week.

As great as the Ravens are, their challenging strength of schedule makes it tough to find spots as good as this one. Maybe Week 6 against Washington or Week 9 against Denver. Also, for whatever it’s worth, the Week 1 loss with Dallas, Buffalo, and Cincinnati coming up adds a little urgency to not taking it easy on the Raiders this week.

i also wouldn’t want to take them against the Texans on Christmas unless CJ Stroud was hurt, so I’ll take them here and figure that out later.

PoolGenius has the Ravens at 80% and I have the Ravens as this week’s pick.

Survivor Pick: Ravens

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