NFL Week 3 Best Bets from Matt Youmans:

It did not take long for the NFL world to get turned upside down. The eight biggest underdogs went 8-0 against the spread in the first two weeks, with the most popular favorites on the board — Cincinnati in Week 1 and Baltimore in Week 2 — taking a hard fall. Unpredictability and upsets are the best friends of the bookmakers, who have been crushing the betting public. The Circa Survivor handicapping contest reflects the unprecedented chaos on display so far. A starting field of 14,266 entries has dwindled to 3,877 going into this week. I have one entry remaining (after starting with two), and my Survivor life is riding on the Bengals, who are 7-point home favorites against Washington on Monday night. Here are my NFL Week 3 best bets:

 

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Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. (FOX)

Even if Chargers quarterback Justin Herbert toughs it out and plays with a high right-ankle sprain, his mobility will be limited. Chargers coach Jim Harbaugh’s commitment to the ground game is admirable, but it will be less effective against a Pittsburgh run defense that ranks No. 3 by allowing 76.5 yards per game. The Steelers will focus on slowing down J.K. Dobbins, the league’s leading rusher with 266 yards, and forcing Herbert to make more plays. If Herbert doesn’t start, Harbaugh will likely go with Easton Stick, who’s a bad backup.

Pittsburgh is plus-5 in turnover margin after ugly victories over Atlanta and Denver. While the Justin Fields-led offense has not committed a turnover, it has produced eight field goals and only one touchdown, so I don’t trust the Steelers to win by much of a margin. I do trust Pittsburgh to win and bet this Tuesday on the moneyline at -125. The current price is no bargain, but I’m sticking with the home favorite.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Pittsburgh Steelers -3

Philadelphia Eagles at New Orleans Saints (-2.5)

1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

Prior to Philadelphia’s meltdown on Monday night, the Eagles were laying 3 to 3.5 in this game. The favorite has flipped to New Orleans -2.5 to 3, a line move that would typically scare me away. However, similar to my Steelers bet, this is one I played early Tuesday and took the Saints +1.5, so I’ll stick with the home team.

The Eagles are not stopping the run, allowing 157.5 yards per game (163 yards to Green Bay and 152 to Atlanta) to rank 25th in the league. The Saints rolled up 190 rushing yards in a blowout win at Dallas as Alvin Kamara went for 115 on 20 carries. Derek Carr has the hot hand; he’s confidently pulling the trigger on the offense, and New Orleans is a better team in all aspects right now. Eagles quarterback Jalen Hurts misses his top receiver, A.J. Brown, who’s out with an injury again this week.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: New Orleans Saints -2.5

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-2.5)

Sunday, 1:00 p.m. ET (FOX)

My top play on the Packers paid off last week, but what worked for Green Bay in the home win against Indianapolis is not going to work in this matchup in Nashville. The Packers rushed for 261 yards on the Colts while keeping the game plan simple for quarterback Malik Willis. There is a chance that Jordan Love returns from a knee injury and Willis goes back to the bench, but how effective will Love be if he does make the start as a game-time decision? I’m guessing Love does not play, but I’m on Tennessee either way.

The Titans are 0-2 and close to being 2-0, if not for a few horrible mistakes by quarterback Will Levis. Tennessee, which is strong on the offensive and defensive lines, is desperate for a win and generally underrated. Levis has been the weak link. I’ve lost twice with the Titans and should have won both times, so I’ll be stubborn and torture myself again.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Tennessee Titans -2.5

Baltimore Ravens (-1) at Dallas Cowboys

Sunday, 4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

No team is more desperate for a win than Baltimore, which is two plays from being 2-0, and coach John Harbaugh and quarterback Lamar Jackson can be counted on to deliver in this situation. Jackson and running back Derrick Henry should punish the Dallas defense. On the flip side, the Ravens boast the No. 1 run defense (49.5 ypg), and the Cowboys have a one-dimensional offense that lacks a running threat. I doubt Dallas will go down without a fight, and the Dak Prescott-CeeDee Lamb combo has the potential to turn this into a high-scoring shootout. This is not going to be easy, but I have to bet on Harbaugh avoiding the 0-3 start.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Baltimore Ravens -1

Kansas City Chiefs (-3) at Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, 8:20 p.m. (NBC)

Injuries are piling up for the Chiefs, who are without speed receiver Marquise “Hollywood” Brown and running back Isiah Pacheco, a battering ram who added a physical element to a finesse offense. Atlanta’s pass defense will be tested because Patrick Mahomes will be throwing it more often without Pacheco in the backfield.

Kirk Cousins and the Falcons might have found something in Monday’s comeback win at Philadelphia. Cousins finally got into a groove on the winning drive, and the Chiefs are getting shredded through the air. Kansas City is lucky to be 2-0, but that luck could run out.

NFL Week 3 Best Bet: Atlanta Falcons +3

Last week: 2-2-1 against the spread

Season: 4-5-1

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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