NFL Week 3 Early Best Bets from the T Shoe Index:

As much as any sports betting market, the NFL is as efficient as they come; therefore, getting lines early in the week is imperative to giving yourself the best chance at profitability long-term. Using tools like my T Shoe Index can help identify mispriced lines early on, but in most cases, by gameday, those prices are gone. TSI has had a good first couple of weeks in the NFL market, going 17-11-4 on all sides. Totals have gone just 12-16-4 as the model adjusts to some new coaches and offensive systems but is 5-2 on best bet totals.

 

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Another huge nugget I uncovered this morning is something I posted on my X account:

Let’s see where the early lines have exposed some value for us in Week 3:

Pittsburgh Steelers (-2; 35.5) vs. Los Angeles Chargers

We’ll get to the underdog thing in a minute, but I’m not sure oddsmakers can set a total low enough for these two teams. I think oddsmakers, like TSI, may not have adjusted quickly enough to the Jim Harbaugh version of the Chargers’ defense, which is a stark contrast from the shootout-every-week team we’ve seen the last couple of years. Pittsburgh is always the Iowa of the NFL, so no surprises there, but I think we can get ahead of the market this week on a Chargers team allowing just 6.5 points per game (37% of opponents’ projected averages) going against Pittsburgh, allowing just 8 ppg (41% of opponents’ projected averages). These teams are trending toward having the top two defenses in TSI, so I’m on “Under” watch until further notice. TSI projects just 30 points in this matchup, and using only the on-field data so far would project just 17.5 (!) points.

NFL Week 3 Early Best Bet: Under 35.5 (Play to 34)

Arizona Cardinals (+3; 52.5) vs. Detroit Lions

Ok, now for the underdog thing I mentioned before. Arizona’s prior data that impacts lines is awful, but that’s because Kyler Murray missed most of last season and Marvin Harrison Jr. was wearing scarlet and gray in Columbus, Ohio. This looks to be a totally different team and I don’t think the market has caught up to that. Meanwhile, the Lions, fresh off a Super Bowl appearance, have been sluggish to start, beating a banged up Rams team and losing to the Bucs as 7.5 point favorites. TSI projects Arizona as a 2-point favorite here, and the on-field data makes it more like a touchdown. The number loves it, and TSI has been lights-out picking underdogs to win + cover so far, so I wouldn’t even mind splitting the unit and putting a little something on the moneyline here.

NFL Week 3 Early Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3 (Play to pick)

For more NFL Week 3 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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