NFL Week 3:

The transition from Week 2 to Week 3 is underway, as we have a new set of games to look at and a new set of betting lines to consider. Well, unless you’re our Follow The Money host Mitch Moss, who was already looking at the Week 3 lookahead lines on Wednesday. Not only is Mitch’s article and the subsequent conversation on the show extremely valuable, but it also provides us with a great look at how the oddsmakers have adjusted their thoughts now that Sunday’s games are in the books.

The NFL Week 3 schedule is light on marquee games, but there will be some very desperate 0-2 teams and some highly questionable 2-0 teams in action, which always makes for good theater on the odds screen.

 

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These are DraftKings odds as of Sunday night, but shop around as always.

Here is the Week 3 NFL Odds Report:

New England Patriots at New York Jets (-6.5, 39)

Thursday, 8:15 p.m. ET (Amazon)

The Jets and Patriots drew the short straw for Week 3, as they’ll have the quick turnaround for the Thursday Night Football game on Amazon. Both teams come in with 1-1 records, which is not terribly surprising for the Jets, but remains a big surprise for the Patriots. It is a big number for the Jets, but there will be a lot of bettors willing to fade rookie head coach Jerod Mayo on the short week. 

At least he has a veteran QB in Jacoby Brissett, who has played extremely well to this point, but Aaron Rodgers and the Jets have their home opener here and that’ll likely get this one to 7 market-wide before we settle in and see if there are some brave souls on New England. I think there will be.

Los Angeles Chargers at Pittsburgh Steelers (-2.5, 38)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

The Chargers are 2-0 in the Jim Harbaugh era and have a chance at a lot of team bonding this week. LA did not go back to California after the win over Carolina, so don’t think about a bad travel spot impacting this game. There won’t be one. In fact, the travel spot may very well be worse for Pittsburgh, effectively losing Monday with the late arrival back at home after beating the Broncos.

The Steelers have scored just one offensive touchdown in two games and are 2-0. The betting market loves to fade teams in line for regression to the mean and we’ve got one here. That said, Justin Herbert was hobbled in Week 2. I still think we see people, especially recreational bettors, way more excited to back LAC.

New York Giants at Cleveland Browns (-7, 39)

1 p.m. (FOX)

The stat sheet wasn’t terribly impressive for Deshaun Watson in Week 2, as he was 22-of-34 for 186 yards and got sacked twice. But, he looked better and that is a big reason why the Browns went to Duval County and knocked off the Jaguars. It’ll be interesting to see if bettors are eager to back the Browns at a big number or swallow a tough pill and back the Giants getting a touchdown.

New York just lost because Graham Gano was unavailable and, ironically, the Commanders kicked seven field goals in the 21-18 win. My guess here is that we’ll see some Giants interest early in the week, as bettors will view the Vikings loss in a better light after Minnesota upset San Francisco. The Giants also had six yards per play against Washington and probably deserved a better fate.

Denver Broncos at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-7, 40)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

This is a game where Sunday’s results influenced the oddsmakers’ opinions. Tampa Bay was -5.5 on the lookahead lines as of Wednesday, but Bo Nix struggled badly against the Steelers and the Buccaneers won at Detroit. Tampa Bay probably didn’t deserve to win, as the Lions went 1-for-7 in the red zone and outgained the Bucs by 247 yards. But, that’s how it goes sometimes.

This is also a pretty big number with a low total, so I’ll be curious to see how it sets up. It’s also worth noting that some of the sportsbooks that cater to sharper bettors, both in the U.S. and overseas, still had this 6.5 while DraftKings had it 7. Guess we’ll see if those so-called sharper bettors are interested in Denver at 7.

Green Bay Packers at Tennessee Titans (-1.5, 37.5)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Malik Willis Revenge Game! The Packers went on the road and beat the Colts with Willis at the helm instead of Jordan Love. Love was reportedly in the mix to play, but I don’t think anybody really believed that at any point. The Packers relied heavily on Josh Jacobs, who had 32 carries for 151 yards, but Willis was 12-of-14 for 122 yards and didn’t actively hurt the team in any way.

The Titans could very well be 2-0, but Will Levis has made some egregious decisions at the worst possible times. The rest of the roster looks like a 2-0 team to this point. We’ll get to deal with the “Will Jordan Love play?” saga throughout the week, but the line certainly implies he won’t be, otherwise GB would be favored here.

Carolina Panthers at Las Vegas Raiders (-7, 38)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

Another game impacted by Sunday’s results. The Raiders were a smaller favorite than this (4.5), but they went and beat the Ravens and the Panthers looked about as bad as they looked in Week 1. There are some extremely unpalatable favorites on the board for this week and this seems to be one of them.

That being said, I still don’t think we’ve reached rock bottom for Carolina from a perception and value standpoint. We’re probably getting pretty close and if they get trucked by the Raiders, we may get there. There was a little bit of interest in Carolina as a home dog to the Chargers during the past week. I don’t think we’ll see much of that here.

Miami Dolphins at Seattle Seahawks (-6.5, 42)

4:05 p.m. ET (CBS)

This was Dolphins -1 in Mitch’s article on Wednesday, so you can see what the absence of Tua Tagovailoa did to the line. Skylar Thompson will get the call for Miami here. The Seahawks needed OT to beat the Patriots, but New England has honestly been low-key impressive thus far, so that’s still a pretty good and gritty win.

The total was also adjusted down 5.5 points with Tua’s absence. This is a tough spot for the sportsbooks – not that anybody will feel sorry for them. Thompson is an unknown with a ton of weapons. Perception is probably that the Seahawks are a bit of an underwhelming 2-0 with one-score wins over the Broncos and Patriots.

Thompson’s two starts in 2022 were not good, as he got benched for Teddy Bridgewater in the first one and was 20-of-31 for just 152 yards in Week 18 in an 11-6 win over the Jets.

Detroit Lions (-3, 51.5) at Arizona Cardinals

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

This is the most interesting line of the week to me. As mentioned, the Lions lost, but the box score would tell you a very different story. They more than doubled up the Bucs in yards, but hurt themselves with some poor red-zone execution. They were 1-for-7 scoring TDs inside the 20. Even if they go 3-for-7, they may very well win by double digits.

Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Jr. and Kyler Murray put on a show in a blowout win over the shorthanded Rams. Detroit was a 4.5-point favorite on the lookahead and we’re down to 3 at most shops, with some 2.5s even popping here in Vegas. These two teams have a common opponent and the Lions got all they could handle from the Rams in Week 1 and the Cardinals beat them by 31. Different circumstances, different personnel for the Rams with their injuries, but it looks like Arizona is getting a lot of respect here.

Baltimore Ravens (-1, 48) at Dallas Cowboys

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Another big game in the late window. The Ravens are desperate. Only one team since the Y2K scare has made the playoffs with an 0-3 start. It was the 2018 Houston Texans, who wound up going 11-5 to win the AFC South. You hate to call a Week 3 game a must-win, but in the rough-and-tumble AFC North, it might be for Baltimore.

The Cowboys played well against Cleveland in Week 1, but they got humbled at home by the Saints in Week 2, as New Orleans hung another 40-burger. The Cowboys were actually -1 in the lookahead market, so we have a flipped favorite scenario here, if it holds. Baltimore did win the box score pretty handily, something that does influence early-week betting action.

San Francisco 49ers (-7, 45.5) at Los Angeles Rams

4:25 p.m. ET (FOX)

Everybody seems willing to look the other way about what the 49ers did in Minnesota. Christian McCaffrey will be unavailable this week after hitting the IR, but the Rams won’t feel any sympathy whatsoever with their long list of injured and hobbled players. Puka Nacua was the biggest name on the list, but he was hardly the only one. Now Cooper Kupp is added to the mix with a left ankle injury.

There are some 7.5s out there on the 49ers as well. The Rams are in that desperate 0-2 team bucket this week, but the circumstances don’t look ideal for them at all. This line was in the 4.5 range coming into the weekend, but the Rams loss coupled with their injury issues are the driving forces behind the adjusted number.

Jacksonville Jaguars at Buffalo Bills (-6, 46.5)

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

The Bills were beating up on the Dolphins before Tua’s concussion, so an adjustment was likely coming for this game no matter what. But, then the Jaguars looked very disjointed on offense against the Browns and so this one went from -3.5 to -6. The Jaguars do have an extra day to figure things out, but the Bills have the “half-bye” week after playing on Thursday and then on Monday.

Buffalo’s win over Arizona also looks a lot better now. Keep that in mind, as the NFL is subject to so much overreaction because of the endless coverage. Jacksonville is in that 0-2 crop of teams, but desperation doesn’t always equal winning more football games.

Washington Commanders at Cincinnati Bengals (-7.5, 48.5)

8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)

I guess we’ll call it a MNF doubleheader, even though the games will be running at the same time. Cincinnati came up short against Kansas City, but the Bengals looked so much better than they did in Week 1 that there is a lot more market confidence in them. They do very much fit the 0-2 team narrative this week. And while they looked better, 10 of Joe Burrow’s 23 completions went to tight ends, which isn’t how the offense usually operates.

Ja’Marr Chase is still getting into the season. Tee Higgins is still hurt. Andrei Iosivas had two touchdown catches for seven combined yards. Is this a team poised to go and blow somebody out? And Washington isn’t great by any means, but the Commanders have played tough in the first two weeks and Jayden Daniels doesn’t look overwhelmed. I think we see Commanders interest early and fairly often here.

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