NFL Week 3 Potential Betting Traps and How to Avoid Them:
We have worked our way through two weeks of NFL betting and it’s been an unusual season already. We’ve seen some incredible games, some bewildering betting results, with seemingly two different games from half to half. Unfortunately, we are now dealing with some key injuries to quarterbacks that will affect the lines and the results in the coming weeks. There are 10 undefeated teams left, with three in the NFC West alone, as well as 10 other teams that have yet to win, with the Chiefs and Texans being perhaps the most surprising.
Of course, the early results are just a small indicator of how quickly things can turn in the NFL. Typically, after two weeks of games, bettors are already forming distinctive opinions about all of the teams, and in turn, those setting the odds try to take advantage of this. I will try to help you avoid some traps this week.
Regardless of what has happened in the first two weeks, historically, Week 3 has had a penchant for evening the scales, so tread cautiously this weekend, and perhaps, have the courage to go “against the grain” in terms of what we’ve seen so far. Bettors who have done so have normally reaped the rewards.
I’m going to look at some Week 3 NFL handicapping systems that have thrived in recent years, using logic that might not seem all that sensible. Backing these types of angles helps bettors avoid traps. Let’s take a look at six concepts you’ll want to consider as you prepare your wagers for this weekend and figure out the games that will be affected:
1. NFL teams that start 0-2 SU are 31-27 SU and 40-17-1 ATS (70.2%) against 1-1 teams in Week 3 since 2010
A tidal wave of negativity gets associated with the winless teams after two weeks, and while they remain typically bad when matched against undefeated teams, they do perform quite well against middle-of-the-road opponents. In most cases, 1-1 teams have shown early signs of inconsistency, and I don’t know any bettors who are actively looking to bet teams like that. Trust that the desperate 0-2 teams will bring their best effort into this week’s game, motivated by the fear of going 0-3 and what that has historically meant to teams’ playoff chances.
The 0-2 teams in 2025, with their prospective matchups for Week 3 against 1-1 teams are as follows:
CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. Atlanta
HOUSTON (+1.5) at Jacksonville
NEW ORLEANS (+7.5) at Seattle
CHICAGO (-3.5) vs. Dallas
Typically, 3.9 games per season qualify for this angle, so we’re right on that number this year. Last year, we had seven qualifiers, and those teams went 5-2 SU and ATS. If percentages hold up, three of these four teams will cover their point spreads, with an outright upset or two to boot. Based on the lines of these four games, one team is likely to go 0-3, but the chances of still covering are pretty strong, while Chicago is the only winless club that is favored. Houston figures to be the most desperate team of the group, as the Texans were once again the AFC South favorite heading into the season. The Bears have been the biggest disappointment as they were a popular pick to be one of the most improved teams. Now they are in a position of having to win over an explosive Dallas team to avoid the dreaded 0-3 doomsday scenario.
2. Winless teams are 23-35-1 SU but 39-20 ATS (66.1%) in Week 3 when playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more since 2010
This system reeks of pure desperation by the 0-2 team. Surely, you’ve seen the stats indicating that only six teams since 1980 have reached the postseason after an 0-3 start. That’s essentially only one team every 7+ years. In other words, you can almost kiss the playoff chances goodbye for the teams below should they lose this week. That’s enough to fuel even the worst team’s effort level. Last year, the motivation proved to be enough, as the three qualifiers on this angle all won outright. Here are the winless teams playing as underdogs of +3.5 points or more this week:
MIAMI (+12.5) at Buffalo
CAROLINA (+3.5) vs. Atlanta
CLEVELAND (+9.5) vs. Green Bay
NY JETS (+7) at Tampa Bay
NEW ORLEANS (+7.5) at Seattle
NY GIANTS (+5.5) vs. Kansas City
If history serves, expect at least four of the teams above to be very competitive this week, and perhaps even threaten upsets. Recognize that bettors in past years have also faced this same difficulty of choosing to back a team that looks hopeless at this point, like the Saints, for instance, and may be facing better teams, but for whatever reason, they do bring a solid effort in most cases. Note that one of these teams is a big underdog at home and faces an 0-2 team that is in desperation mode after winning the AFC title five of the last six years. The Giants have no chance against the Chiefs, right? Or do they?
3. Teams allowing more than 6.50 yards per play in the first two weeks have rebounded in Week 3 with a record of 27-16 SU and 28-15 ATS (65.1%) since 2015.
This absolutely goes against all logic when it comes to bettors and the choices they make. The teams that have allowed more than 6.5 yards per play have shown to be the league’s worst defensively in the first two games. Why in the world would any self-respecting bettor back a team like this in the third game? Well, this is exactly how the sportsbooks entrap their clients. Typically, teams that were that bad defensively in the early going rebound, as they are motivated by the bad press about them and/or make adjustments. In many cases, the Week 3 matchup is also against a lesser offense than they faced in the first two games.
In 2023, only one team allowed more than 6.5 yards per play, and that was the Chargers, who went into Minnesota in Week 3 and won 28-24 as one-point dogs. In 2024, three teams had allowed 6.5 yards per play or higher, but two of them played against one another. Only Philadelphia qualified on this system, and the Eagles went into New Orleans and upset the Saints 15-12 as 2.5-point dogs. Yes, you read that right, the eventual NFC champs were 2.5-point dogs to a team that eventually finished 5-12. For 2025, two teams are allowing 6.5+ yards per play on defense:
NEW ENGLAND (+1.5) vs. Pittsburgh
CHICAGO (-3.5) vs. Dallas
Interestingly, despite the brutal defensive start, the Bears still find themselves in the role of a mid-sized home favorite against the 1-1 Cowboys. Dallas has scored 90 points in the first two games and has the offense to exploit the Bears’ porous defense. This is about as interesting a game and line scenario as there is on the Week 3 slate. What do the experts behind the counter know?
4. The league’s best defensive teams after two weeks, or those allowing 14 PPG or less so far, are 25-21 SU but just 14-31-1 ATS (31.1%) in Week 3 since 2005 when favored by three points or more.
It’s obvious from this system and the last one that bettors shouldn’t put too much stock into the defensive performance of teams in the first two weeks. Often, the numbers that a defense puts up in the early going are more a reflection of the opposing offenses that they’ve faced. Those that played bad offenses have fared well, while those that faced the elite attacks are probably being misjudged. Again, this is a trap that many bettors fall into. After two weeks, the Rams boast the league’s top defense. Unfortunately, they won’t fall into this system as they are established as a sizable underdog at Philadelphia.
NO QUALIFYING PLAYS — watch Chargers line if it approaches 3 points
There was also no qualifying game for this system last year. In fact, the last qualifier was the 2023 Cowboys, who traveled to Arizona in Week 3. In that one, a seemingly dominant Dallas team was upset 28-16 as an 11.5-point favorite.
5. Teams gaining more than 6.75 yards per play in the first two weeks have continued their impressive play in Week 3 with a record of 20-8 SU and ATS (71.4%) since 2015.
So, this system wouldn’t be considered a “trap,” per se, but the reason I have included it is to remind people that it is good offense that continues to rule the day in the NFL and is the more consistent factor. Only one team has been truly elite offensively so far, and to be perfectly honest, it’s not a surprise. The Ravens lead the league with 6.88 yards per play, followed by the Colts at 6.6 and the Rams at 6.56. What makes these numbers so impressive is that no one else is above 6.36. These offenses are clicking, and yet the Ravens are only 1-1 after their surreal opening-week loss at Buffalo. Historically speaking, it makes no sense to step in front of the train until a key injury or other factor has a negative impact.
BALTIMORE (-6) vs. Detroit
This is a very interesting game in that the Lions come off a tremendous offensive performance of their own, a 52-21 rout of Chicago. That game was at home, of course, so this is an entirely different animal. Many bettors will assume Detroit has what it takes to stay in this game. Is a 6-point spread a mistake by oddsmakers, or are they smarter than us?
6. Since 2008, the league’s best undefeated teams after two weeks, those having outscored teams by 25 points or more, are 27-24 SU but 18-31-2 ATS (36.7%) in Week 3.
These are the teams that oddsmakers tend to shade the lines heavily toward in Week 3, as they have put up the most sterling performances in the early going. Some of the teams may have actually warranted the respect. Others, though, may have been the beneficiary of turnover luck or favorable scheduling in the first two weeks to get to where they are. If you’re backing a team that has won its first two games by a combined 25 points or more, you are probably paying too high a price, so be prepared to see your team struggle to cover an overinflated point spread. For 2025, only one team has met the 2-0 criteria for outscoring teams by 25 points or more in the first two weeks: the Colts. Quite the surprise. Green Bay is next closest at +23 and 2-0.
FADE INDIANAPOLIS (-3) at Tennessee
Indy -3 isn’t the usual price you’ll typically see regarding prolific undefeated teams after two weeks, so we’ll see how that affects the system. The biggest change for the Colts this week is that this trip to Tennessee will be their first road game of the season. It is also their first divisional game. Still, with a rookie QB in Cam Ward leading an underdog Titans team that was 2-15 last year and is already 0-2, this is a tough system for bettors to swallow. Winning ain’t easy.
