NFL Survivor Picks

If your Survivor pool looks anything like Circa Survivor, it has been absolute carnage through the first two weeks. Over 72% of the Circa Survivor field is done and an “Empathy Package” has been put together by the team at Circa to give free nights to those whose Survivor dreams were completely dashed over the first 32 games of the NFL season.

The Year of the Underdog may or may not continue this week, but we’ll have plenty of cautionary tales to tell heading into next season. With the way that the preseason is handled by coaches nowadays, Weeks 1 and 2 just feel like extensions of the preseason, except the starters are playing the entire game. We’ve seen some shocking results to be sure, but the underdog truly earned the win in a lot of those games. Not all of them. But a lot of them.

 

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And, so, we head into Week 3 with a lot of gun-shy pickers and a lot of anxiety. After all, if your entry is still alive, regardless of the size and buy-in amount for your pool, your entry (or entries) have gained some extreme value with so much dead money in the pot.

I, too, am dead money. The Bengals were the article pick in Week 1 and the Ravens were the conclusion in Week 2. Many of the Survivor entries I was a part of have gone in the trash can. But, I’ll keep writing the article as the season goes along, keeping in mind the time of the year and the teams that may or may not be available to those still standing.

I’ll also keep sharing the very cool NFL Survivor and NFL Pick ‘Em tools over at PoolGenius, which will be a tremendous help to you moving forward now that so much equity has been gained if you are still alive. Check out this article from them about the Circa Survivor field and projecting pick popularity.

Week 3 NFL Survivor Teams to Consider

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6.5) over Denver Broncos

I have to be honest. If you had Detroit last week, that was a bad, bad, bad beat in Survivor. The Lions more than doubled the Buccaneers in yardage, but went 1-for-7 in the red zone and all of those failed chances were simply too much to overcome. But, the Bucs won and went home 2-0 with a great chance to go 3-0 against Bo Nix and the Broncos.

This will not be the first road start for Nix, but it will be his first taste of a 10 a.m. game. It will also be absurdly hot, with gametime temps around 92 and the usual humid conditions of Florida at this time of the year. That can’t possibly help the Broncos, who do experience heat in Denver, but not with the wet conditions of Florida.

The Broncos have one offensive touchdown to this point and just 4.2 yards per play. While I think most contests will still make it very deep into the season, the Buccaneers don’t play the Panthers until Weeks 13 and 17, with the Week 17 game at home. I’m not sure it’s worth saving anybody at this point – aside from the holiday considerations in Circa Survivor and similar contests, but you could wait on Tampa Bay.

That being said, I don’t see another good time to take them until Week 13 in Charlotte or later, so it may be wise to fire away now while Baker Mayfield is still healthy.

PoolGenius has the Buccaneers at 69% to win this week.

Las Vegas Raiders (-5) over Carolina Panthers

How much will Andy Dalton help the hapless Panthers? The Panthers offense has mustered one touchdown and just 3.5 yards per play to this point, leading first-year head coach Dave Canales to sit Bryce Young down.

The optics aren’t good any way you slice it with the Young decision, but it was hard to watch the kid continue to suffer and maybe a little downtime and a chance to catch his breath is a good thing.

Meanwhile, the Raiders just ruined the day for a lot of Survivor players by upsetting the Ravens and now have what will be their biggest favorite role of the season. Gardner Minshew is getting the job done and the Raiders fight, scratch, and claw. They are a physical crew. They should win the effort battles in the trenches here in the home opener and there is no better time to use the Black & Silver.

Remember, you’ll probably need 18 of the 32 teams to win, even with so many contestants out early. If you want to give the Raiders a go, this is the optimal week to do it. Thanksgiving is not a consideration because they play at Arrowhead on Black Friday and if you’re taking the Raiders there, you already f’d up.

The Raiders are 64% to win per PoolGenius.

Cincinnati Bengals (-7) over Washington Commanders

If you are still alive to take the Bengals following their Week 1 debacle, this isn’t a bad place to do it. This is a road game on Monday Night Football for rookie QB Jayden Daniels and one against a highly desperate, 0-2 Bengals bunch. Only one team since 2000 has made the playoffs starting 0-3 and that is the 2018 Houston Texans. The Bengals do not want to try to become the second.

Tee Higgins has been practicing. Ja’Marr Chase should be getting in better form. Joe Burrow looked fine last week in a toss-up game against the Chiefs. If you can stand waiting until Monday night for your fate, this is another interesting option.

PoolGenius puts the Bengals second on the confidence meter at 71%, trailing only the 49ers.

NFL Week 3 Survivor Pick

Cleveland Browns (-6.5) over New York Giants

I think there are a couple of teams to pick between this week and they are the Browns and Raiders. Simply because it is really hard to find another time to use them. But, the Browns, who are now 1-1, play the next three games on the road. They figured some things out last week and, while it wasn’t always pretty, it was a win nonetheless and one where Deshaun Watson looked a whole lot more comfortable.

To me, the Browns have a huge coaching edge here, and it’s not Kevin Stefanski vs. Brian Daboll. It is Kevin Stefanski vs. Shane Bowen. Waldron’s Giants have allowed 6.1 yards per play thus far and 5.3 yards per carry. They’ve had major holes in the run gaps and have been susceptible to misdirection.

We’re seeing more pre-snap motion and unbalanced lines from Stefanski as he tries to navigate his QB’s shortcomings and also the injuries at the tackle position. However, it does appear that Jack Conklin was a full participant this week and both Dawand Jones and Jedrick Wills were at practice.

Opponents have scored points on 55.6% of their drives against the Giants so far and their red-zone success is likely to regress.

The Browns play three in a row on the road and then three at home with the Raiders, Commanders, Eagles, Bengals, Ravens, and Chargers. Then they play the Saints, Steelers, Broncos, Steelers, Chiefs, Bengals, Dolphins, and Ravens. To me, the only other spot, as of now, to consider them is at Denver on Monday night in Week 13 with tons of time to prep, but they’re not even the best option that week.

In my eyes, now is the time to take Cleveland, a team that should be more trustworthy than Las Vegas.

The Browns are 69% per PoolGenius to win the game.

Survivor Pick: Browns

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