NFL Week 4:

The Year of the Underdog continued in Week 3 and setting lines for NFL games has to be a much more interesting process than we’ve seen in years past. As an oddsmaker, you still have to respect the talent of the teams that have lost in favorite roles, but you also don’t want to fully downplay what the underdogs are doing.

Also, you need to profile the clientele and recreational bettors are by and large going to be playing on the favorites, so you don’t want to set a number too low and then get caught with your pants down when a team finally plays to expectation. On the flip side, the sharper, more respected bettors can go in any direction and sniff out a bad line in any context. It’s been quite the NFL season so far and it will only get more compelling from here, for both bettors and bookmakers.

 

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Let’s look at the Week 4 opening lines and see what’s going on.

Here is the Week 4 NFL Odds Report:

Dallas Cowboys (-5, 44) at New York Giants

Thursday, 8:20 p.m. ET (Amazon)

A dud from the Cowboys and a spirited road win for the Giants definitely led to some adjustments in this one. It is a short week with travel from Dallas to the Meadowlands in New Jersey, so the road favorites have a little bit of a compromising situational spot. Also, New York’s win over Cleveland – a Browns team that has looked bad at home twice – is a little bit tough to gauge and evaluate. Most shops are between -4 and -5 on this one, as adjustments have been made. This was -7 at DraftKings last week.

Pittsburgh Steelers (-1.5, 39) at Indianapolis Colts

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (CBS)

Underdogs are rattling off wins like crazy and passing is at a low point, but at least one thing remains the same. Mike Tomlin just finds ways to win. The Steelers are 3-0 and already have a two-game lead in the AFC North. The Colts got their first win of the season, but this line flipped favorites from where the lookahead market had the game. The Steelers were a short pup and now they’re a short favorite heading to Lucas Oil Stadium.

By the way, make sure you check out Follow The Money host Mitch Moss’s Lookahead Lines column every Wednesday so that you can use it as a frame of reference when thinking about where the oddsmakers re-released the lines following Sunday’s action.

Minnesota Vikings at Green Bay Packers (-2, 44)

Sunday, 1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Speaking of flipped favorites, how about this one?! The Vikings, who beat the Texans as home underdogs, were favored over the Packers last week. But, Malik Willis is now 2-0 as a starter and it seems like the injury reports on Jordan Love were pretty positive throughout the week. The Vikings have been one of the best and most consistent teams in the NFL thus far, and yet here they are an underdog with some QB uncertainty for Green Bay. I think it’s a strong statement from the books. I also think it means they’re probably expecting Love to play, or at least protecting heavily against the possibility of it.

Los Angeles Rams at Chicago Bears (-1, 41)

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

Perhaps the most shocking results of Sunday came from the Rams, who beat the 49ers without Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua. Not only that, but they erased a 10-point deficit over the final 10 minutes of the game. The Rams are clearly getting some love for what they accomplished, as this line was -4 heading into the weekend. Also, the Bears stunk again, even though Caleb Williams did throw for 363 yards. He also did it on 52 pass attempts. This was a pretty big adjustment, especially going right on through a key number.

Denver Broncos at New York Jets (-8, 38.5)

1 p.m. ET (CBS)

It is always interesting to see how wins are evaluated. The Jets suffocated the Patriots on Thursday night and the Broncos went out on the road and beat a pretty good Buccaneers team. And through all of that, this line is the same as what it was last week. I think there were some people who viewed the Bucs as a paper tiger and I don’t think that the oddsmakers had fully bought it. After all, this line implies that the Jets are 2.5 points or so better on a neutral, given that most shops closed Bucs -5.5. Is that something you agree with? Aaron Rodgers definitely looked better against New England, but we all believe the Patriots to be awful.

Are the Broncos 1.5 points worse than New England? You do have back-to-back travel and Bo Nix on the road, but the Jets were -6.5 against the Patriots on the short week and are now laying over a touchdown against the Broncos. Just some food for thought. I don’t have a strong opinion one way or the other, but it is an intriguing comparison.

Philadelphia Eagles (-2.5, 46.5) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

1 p.m. ET (FOX)

The playoff rematch between the Eagles and the Bucs is just dripping with intrigue. Early markets were trending towards the road Eagles, as DraftKings had this -1 last week and the initial action was on Philly to bump the line up. Like I said, a lot of people believed that Tampa Bay was a paper tiger and a regression candidate and those opinions were very much validated on Sunday. However, the Eagles aren’t really in sync either and Nick Sirianni is getting blasted for his game management. I’ll be curious to see if this line gets to -3 early in the week. Even with all of Philly’s problems, I think there’s a good chance it does and then we’ll see what happens.

New England Patriots at San Francisco 49ers (-10, 40.5)

4:05 p.m. ET (FOX)

The Patriots get the benefit of the “half-bye” here after playing on Thursday in Week 3, but they also draw a matchup with a very angry 49ers team. This isn’t a must-win game for the Niners, but they’re off to a 1-2 start and they do not want to fall to 1-3, even if the NFC is littered with parity and a lot of 1-2 teams. They shouldn’t and they’ll be a popular Survivor pick in a year where absolutely nobody is a lock. But, I am curious to see where this goes. Even with San Fran’s loss to the Rams, this one got to double digits and stayed there, moving up to -11 at Circa and South Point out here in Las Vegas.

Cleveland Browns (-1, 38.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

This is a pretty ugly game based on what we saw this past Sunday. The Browns were atrocious against the Giants and had all of 42 offensive yards at halftime. The Raiders lost at home to Andy Dalton and the Panthers in a non-competitive showing. This line was -1 in the lookahead markets and that’s precisely where it is now for the most part. Circa was dealing PK on the game at time of writing, but the rest of the market still had Cleveland favored. The total has been adjusted down after the laughable offensive performances of both teams last week. 

That’s one of the more notable total moves, along with Bengals vs. Panthers, which I didn’t write about because Cincy plays on MNF. That total went from 42.5 up to as high as 46.

Kansas City Chiefs (-9, 39.5) at Los Angeles Chargers

4:25 p.m. ET (CBS)

The sportsbooks made a six-point adjustment off of the lookahead line here because Justin Herbert left injured against the Steelers. Herbert said that he “hopes” to be able to play on Sunday. Meanwhile, head coach Jim Harbaugh said he wrestled with not even starting the hobbled Herbert in Pittsburgh. Sounds like we have a really good chance at seeing Taylor Heinicke here and the market has adjusted accordingly.

Tennessee Titans (-1, 38) at Miami Dolphins

Monday, 7:30 p.m. ET (ESPN)

We get another MNF doubleheader this week, but I’m not sure how many people will be watching this one. Will Levis is a walking turnover and the Dolphins may have to use Tim Boyle or somebody signed off the street for this game. Skylar Thompson left hurt for the Dolphins against the Seahawks after going 13-of-19 for 107 yards. He was sacked five times for 37 yards. But, who wants to take Levis as a road favorite? This is a brutal game to watch, to bet, and to even acknowledge its existence.

Seattle Seahawks at Detroit Lions (-4.5, 48)

Monday, 8:15 p.m. ET (ABC)

This is a line to watch closely. I think this is likely to go up. Detroit went on the road and beat what has been an impressive Arizona team to this point. The Seahawks, as mentioned, just beat the hapless Dolphins. I think it was pretty impressive that the Lions held the Cardinals to 5.2 yards per play and only gave up 207 yards after Arizona’s first drive of scripted plays. The Lions offense is still working out some kinks and Jared Goff really doesn’t look great, but they were 1-of-7 in the red zone against the Bucs, or we’d be talking about a 3-0 team and a line that looked more like 6 or 6.5, if not 7. 

I get that the Seahawks are 3-0, but they’ve beaten two of the lowest power-rated teams in the league in the Broncos and Patriots and then Skylar Thompson and the Dolphins. This strikes me as a sizable step up in class.

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