NFL Week 8 Best Bets, Picks and Predictions from Wes Reynolds:

Let’s take a look at my NFL Week 8 best bets and predictions:

 

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Baltimore Ravens (-9; 44.5) at Cleveland Browns

After a 10-0 deficit to end the first quarter, the Ravens put together 34 unanswered points to pull away at Tampa last Monday night. Lamar Jackson threw five touchdown passes and became the new betting favorite for MVP.

Now, the Ravens stay on the road to face Cleveland, whose QB situation is far less certain. Jameis Winston will get the start in place of Deshaun Watson, who is now out for the season with an Achilles injury. Winston did lead a touchdown drive in the fourth quarter in the Browns’ loss to Cincinnati, where they outgained the Bengals 336-223 but got behind early due to a kickoff return TD, 80 yards in penalties, and two turnovers.

It is not just a change in QBs for Cleveland. This week, it is also a change in play-callers, as Ken Dorsey takes over that responsibility for Kevin Stefanski.  Dorsey was previously the offensive play-caller in Buffalo before being fired midway through last season. The Bills ranked 2nd in offensive DVOA in 2022 in Dorsey’s last full season with the team.

Nick Chubb had 11 carries and three targets (one catch) in the passing game last week. He should have a little more impact this week, considering last week was his first back from injury.

The Browns’ defense has also gotten healthier of late and will need to be against this Ravens attack that has scored 30 or more each of the last four weeks.

Nevertheless, this is another big game on the Ravens’ schedule. After losing by a toenail at Kansas City, they inexplicably lost to the Raiders. Since then, they have been on a five-game winning streak. They nearly blew a 28-6 lead at Dallas. Next, they trounced Buffalo on SNF. Then, they came back and won in OT at Cincinnati and followed it up with a victory over upstart DMV rival Washington. Finally, they capped it off with a road win on MNF in Tampa. Could the Ravens be a bit out of energy here?

As an aside, Lamar Jackson is 8-18-1 ATS (31%) in his career when favored by over 3 points.

Cleveland is certainly going to give its max effort for Winston, who is popular in the locker room, and the Browns should keep this close.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Cleveland Browns +9

Kansas City Chiefs (-10; 41.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Chiefs picked off Brock Purdy three times to win in San Francisco and remain the NFL’s lone unbeaten team.

Certainly, the Chiefs would not lack motivation after losing at Arrowhead on Christmas Day last season to the Raiders. Plus, the whole Mahomes/Kermit the Frog puppet video from Raiders training camp that went viral over the summer.

However, how do you lay double digits on the road in a divisional game without your top three receivers and your top running back just back from injury?

It will be Gardner Minshew for the Raiders at QB, as Aidan O’Connell is out with a thumb injury. There is not much difference between the two, except O’Connell is better on deep balls, but the Raiders may want the quick, underneath stuff that Minshew brings to combat Steve Spagnuolo’s heavy blitzing.

Despite the mini-dynasty of the Chiefs, Kansas City rarely gets a big margin of victory. They went seven straight dating back to last year before winning by 10 or more in the last two games. The premium is now in the number.

Home underdogs of +7.5 or more have gone 48-29-1 ATS (62.3%) over the last five years. Cleveland, listed above, also applies to this situation.

NFL Week 8 Best Bet: Las Vegas Raiders +10

TOTAL OF THE WEEK
Bills/Seahawks UNDER 47

BEST OF THE REST
Dolphins/Chargers ML Parlay (+102)
Eagles/Bengals UNDER 48
Jaguars +4.5 vs. Packers
Giants +6.5 at Steelers

For more NFL Week 8 analysis and best bets, visit the NFL Week 8 Hub exclusively on VSiN.

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