Packers-Cowboys Trade
The longstanding debate of how much an NFL player is worth in a betting context will keep going on and on, but the Packers-Cowboys Trade with Micah Parsons heading to Green Bay turned his new team into the favorite to win the NFC North. DraftKings Sportsbook had the Packers as the second choice at +260, but between a price adjustment and probably some notable investment, Green Bay is now the +170 favorite.
To say that there was an impasse between Jerry Jones, Parsons, and David Mulugheta, Parsons’ agent, would be an understatement, but few thought it would truly come to this. A week before opening up the season in the 2025 NFL Kickoff Game against the Eagles, the Cowboys are now without their best pass rusher and one of the league’s best at getting after the quarterback. That sounds like a problem going up against Jalen Hurts and the high-flying Eagles attack.
The Parsons trade caused a bit of a ripple effect for that line as well, as the Eagles went out to -7 with extra vig and even a rogue -7.5 popped at DraftKings. Similarly, Green Bay became a slightly larger favorite for their Week 1 clash against the Lions, who are the second favorite at +180 to win the NFC North.
How Micah Parsons Fits With The Packers
What also stands out for the Packers here is that they gave up Kenny Clark, a defensive tackle who played in all 17 games, but only had one sack and 37 tackles with a 63% snap share. Parsons will be an every down player, so that’s the first point. Also, they gave up two first-round picks, which is a big deal, but not for 2025.
The second point is that the Packers were already a top-10 team in sacks last season with 45 and did so with the second-lowest Blitz% in the NFL per Pro-Football-Reference.
This is a Packers defense that was fourth in Dropback EPA, thanks to the sacks and 17 interceptions, but also 28th in Dropback Success Rate against. So when it wasn’t a big or a sack, they had issues, as they were in the bottom 10 in completion percentage against.
Certainly in a division with Jared Goff, Caleb Williams, and J.J. McCarthy, all on teams with good offensive minds as either the head coach or the offensive coordinator, Parsons can have a tremendous impact. Along with those six division games, the Packers will face Jayden Daniels, Joe Flacco, Dak Prescott, Joe Burrow, Kyler Murray, Aaron Rodgers, Bryce Young, Jalen Hurts, Russell Wilson/Jaxson Dart, Bo Nix, and Lamar Jackson. There are some very good, and maybe most notably, mobile QBs in that group.
Now that he’s signed, Parsons is +600 to win the Defensive Player of the Year Award and favored over new division rival Aidan Hutchinson.
Now What For The Cowboys?
Well, I was on record in our 2025 NFL Betting Guide as saying that Donovan Ezeiruaku was a good bet to win Defensive Rookie of the Year. Of course, while I assumed that he would be playing opposite Parsons, he’s now a premier pass rusher for Dallas with DeMarvion Overshown out for most of the year, if not all of it. Dante Fowler Jr.’s profile is also elevated for those in IDP fantasy football leagues.
By the way, you can get your copy of the 2025 NFL Betting Guide by becoming a VSiN Pro Subscriber for just $9.99 for the first month!
Even with Parsons, the likelihood was that the Cowboys would have to be carried by Prescott and the offense, but this is a huge mental blow a week before the start of the season. It also has long-ranging impacts, as players will be reluctant to deal with the owner/GM moving forward when a big pay day is drawing near.
Obviously not paying Parsons the four-year, $188 million deal gives Dallas more flexibility down the line, but to what end? Parsons is a top-five defensive player. Who will they get that can have that sort of impact? Time will tell, but for the guys in that locker room, including the few on long-term contracts like Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Jake Ferguson, this was far from the preferred outcome.
Dallas is now out to +900 to win the NFC East and bettors are now bearish on their season win total odds, which are now pretty juiced at Under 7.5 across most of the market.
Check out our DraftKings NFL Betting Splits and Circa NFL Betting Splits to see where the action is on Week 1.
