On Monday, November 24, the San Francisco 49ers host the Carolina Panthers in what could be a fun Monday Night Football matchup. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 12 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Panthers vs. 49ers
When: Monday, November 24 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Panthers vs. 49ers Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, November 23. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: 49ers -395, Panthers +310
Spread: 49ers -7.5 (-105), Panthers +7.5 (-115)
Total: Over 49.5 (-110), Under 49.5 (-110)
Panthers vs. 49ers Analysis
Our VSiN betting splits are interesting heading into this Monday Night Football game. DraftKings Sportsbook opened with San Francisco laying 7, but the 49ers are now 7.5-point favorites there. Meanwhile, Circa Sports opened with San Francisco as 6.5-point favorites, and the book has moved the 49ers to -7. However, it is intriguing that Circa doesn’t have San Francisco at 7.5. Circa is known as one of the sharpest books around, so it’s telling that their oddsmakers aren’t budging and making Carolina available at +7.5 — despite seemingly all of the action coming in on the home team.
It definitely seems like the oddsmakers at Circa don’t want to give smart bettors the option of backing the Panthers +7.5, which is where I’d be leaning if forced to take a side in this game. However, I think the best play you can make here is the Over, which has spiked at all books. This total is up at 50 at Circa, despite opening at 48 on November 16th. It’s also up at 49.5 at DraftKings, despite being down at 45 back on November 11th. Of course, some of that has to do with Brock Purdy being back in the fold for San Francisco. The 49ers are now a little more dangerous on offense, plus the Panthers’ 30-point performance last game showed that Bryce Young is capable of moving the ball if this turns into an up-and-down game. However, the reason to take the Over is really the state of these two defenses.
Coming into this game, the Panthers are 24th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.067). Meanwhile, the 49ers are 25th in the league (0.088). There definitely was some potential for San Francisco to be an elite unit on this side of the ball heading into the year, but a season-ending injury to Nick Bosa really derailed things. The 49ers went from having one of the league’s best pass-rushers to being 31st in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (31%). Meanwhile, the Panthers are just 25th in Pass Rush Win Rate (33%), meaning both quarterbacks should have plenty of time to sit back and throw. And that’s precisely why this game has shootout written all over it. Carolina is 24th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.152), and San Francisco is down at 29th (0.202). These secondaries can’t be trusted, even in a game that doesn’t feature elite quarterbacks.
Under Kyle Shanahan, the Over has been a good play when the 49ers are favored by a decent amount. In games in which San Francisco has been favored by 3.5 to 9.5 points, the Over is 36-19. Also, since Dave Canales became the head coach of Carolina, the Over is 14-5 when the team is an underdog of 3.5 to 9.5 points. It’s also 9-3 when the Panthers have played against teams that allow at least 5.65 yards per play under Canales, and you can add the fact that it’s 6-1 when they play teams that give up at least 350.0 yards per game.
Panthers vs. 49ers Player Props
George Kittle Anytime Touchdown (+135)
There isn’t a single receiver in this game that pops up with a positive matchup when sorting by “Matchup” in our WR-CB Matchup Tool. Well, perhaps that means it’ll be another big game for Kittle, who popped for six catches, 67 yards, and two touchdowns last week. Kittle has now scored a touchdown in back-to-back weeks. He’s looking like an absolute monster for San Francisco, and he’ll continue to be Purdy’s go-to weapon moving forward.
Taking the Over on Kittle’s receiving yards and receptions is a strong option here. However, I’d rather the plus-money odds for him to find the end zone. He has scored four touchdowns over his last four games. And it’s just hard to imagine him not finding pay dirt in what could be a high-scoring game.
Panthers vs. 49ers Pick
While I like the Over in this game, I do prefer taking it at 48.5. That said, I’m playing that at a reasonable price of -125, and I’m going a little bigger on it than I normally do. I just think this is a game in which both quarterbacks will turn in strong performances, and I also think there’s a decent chance the running games do the same — which isn’t exactly a hot take considering we’re talking about Rico Dowdle and Christian McCaffrey.
Bet: Over 48.5 (-125 – 1.5 units) & Kittle Anytime TD (+135 – 0.5 units)
