The Thursday Night Football matchup in Week 3 of the 2024 NFL season features the New York Jets hosting the New England Patriots at MetLife Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to the Week 3 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Patriots vs. Jets

When: Thursday, September 19th at 8:15 pm ET

Where: MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey

Channel: Prime Video

Patriots vs. Jets Odds

(Odds as of Tuesday, September 17th)

Moneyline: Jets -298, Patriots +240

Spread: Jets -6.5 (-112), Patriots +6.5 (-108)

Total: Over 38.5 (-110), Under 38.5 -110)

Patriots vs. Jets Analysis

The Patriots are 14-1 straight-up and 11-4 against the spread in their last 15 meetings with the Jets. However, New York won the most recent game between these two, earning a 17-3 win as a 2.5-point underdog in Foxborough. And the reality is that you can’t put much stock into the recent head-to-head history between these teams. A lot of those games were played with the Patriots as perennial Super Bowl contenders and the Jets as NFL bottom dwellers. Now, New York is the team with real short-term aspirations, as Aaron Rodgers and Co. are hoping to make the playoffs and then make a little noise. Meanwhile, the Patriots are in for a somewhat lengthy rebuild with Jerod Mayo in for Bill Belichick as head coach — and backup Drake Maye hoping to be the long-term answer to replacing Tom Brady at quarterback.

So far this season, despite having different paths forward, these teams haven’t been all that different. Both of these teams enter Week 3 at 1-1. And according to nfelo, New England has a Net EPA of +0.09 and New York has a Net EPA of -0.01. The difference is that the Patriots have been slightly above average offensively, while being a touch below average defensively. The exact opposite is true of the Jets.

As far as breaking down the matchup goes, it’s hard to imagine the Jets losing this game outright. Both of these teams want to run the ball and put trust in their defenses. But late in a close game, how can you not trust Rodgers over Jacoby Brissett — especially with this being the Jets home opener? That’s ultimately the big difference between these two. But is the difference big enough to back New York? Probably not. In fact, if this spread gets to 7, I’ll be jumping on the Patriots. As of now, it’s a slight lean towards New England +6.5. The Patriots are getting a lot of points for a game with a total below 40, and it’s never a bad idea to jump on the underdog in situations like these.

As things stand, I like the Under more than anything else in this game. New England is Top 5 in the league in run frequency over the last two weeks, and the team doesn’t really have the personnel to play any other way. So, you’re going to see a pretty heavy dose of Rhamondre Stevenson in this one, and things won’t be all that different for New York. While the Patriots have only given up 58.0 rushing yards per game this season, the Rush EPA numbers aren’t quite as strong. So, the Jets are still going to try to get Breece Hall and rookie Braelon Allen going here. And like New England, that might be New York’s only option. Rodgers has looked better under center than any other Jets quarterbacks we’ve seen in recent years, but he still doesn’t look quite like himself after having his Achilles repaired last year. It’s going to take him some time to get comfortable under center, and New York’s play calling leans into that. The Jets have been throwing a lot of quick passes and aren’t taking many shots down the field.

Overall, it’s just hard to see either one of these offenses making big enough plays for this thing to turn into a higher scoring game. The Under is also 6-3-1 in the 10 games the Jets have played as favorites under head coach Robert Saleh, and it’s also 13-5 in the 18 games that New York has played against AFC East opponents in that span.

UPDATE (Wednesday, September 18th at 5:00 pm ET): It sounds like the Patriots will be without at least two starting offensive linemen. That’s enough for me to completely back off New England, even if the line is at +7. However, I still like the Under a lot. I’m also sticking with the player prop below.

Patriots vs. Jets Player Props

Rhamondre Stevenson Over 17.5 Rushing Attempts (+115)

Only eight teams in the NFL are worse than the Jets when it comes to Rush EPA per play allowed. That’s a pretty big difference from last season, when New York was ninth in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed. With that in mind, the Jets are probably bound to figure this thing out pretty soon. Saleh and Jeff Ulbrich know what they’re doing on that side of the ball, and it’s not like the team lacks the talent required to stop the run. However, I don’t see that happening from Week 2 to Week 3. It’s hard to make sweeping changes in a short week.

Considering all of that, it’s a little hard to imagine Stevenson not having a big workload in this game. New England is eighth in the NFL in Rush EPA per play this season, and the team is also fifth in the NFL in rushing play percentage (57.7%) through two weeks. This is a team that wants to run the football, and Stevenson is the go-to guy in this backfield. This season, Stevenson has rushed for 201 yards and two touchdowns. He has been a big part of the reason the Patriots have been so competitive.

I’d be surprised if Stevenson struggles to get going in this game, and I briefly flirted with taking the Over on his 65.5-yard rushing yard total. However, I feel even better about the 26-year-old going Over 17.5 rushing attempts. Stevenson carried the rock 25 times against the Bengals in Week 1, and he followed that up with 21 carries against the Seahawks in Week 2. That makes it pretty easy to envision him rushing 20 or so times in a game that should ultimately turn into a low-scoring, defensive-minded battle. The only thing that can really put this play in jeopardy is the Jets jumping out to a two-score lead, but that’s going to be difficult given what we’ve seen from New York’s offense.

Patriots vs. Jets Pick

I don’t love being on Unders this low, but it feels like the right move in this game. These should be above-average defenses all season long, and neither offense is aggressive about taking shots in the passing game right now. That could change for the Jets as Rodgers gets further and further away from his Achilles injury, but we saw a conservative offense in Week 2 and that was only five days ago. I’m not expecting big changes here.

Pick: Under 38.5 (-105)

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