Raiders vs. Broncos – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props.
Brock Bowers Over 64.5 receiving yards (-110, BETMGM)
This number is 3-4 yards higher on DraftKings, FanDuel, etc. and the 64.5 number looks a lot better to me than 68.5. But anything under 70 yards should hit, given how great Bowers looked last week, and the expected flow of the game with the Raiders being 9-point road underdogs. Bowers has played in only two games this year in which he’s completely healthy, and he’s put up 12/127/3 and 5/103 with long receptions of 27 and 38 yards in those two games. Denver did shut Jake Ferguson out two weeks ago, but that was with Patrick Surtain mostly on the field, and Bowers is a different animal. Without Surtain last week, they played zone over 70% of the time and gave up a 47-yard catch to Dalton Schultz (6/77 on 8 targets), and two weeks ago, they gave up 6/154/2 to TEs against the Giants, of all teams. If they do revert to playing man, which they’ve used at the second-highest rate (40.1%), Bowers is crushing it this year, averaging a strong 2.38 YPRR and .31 TPRR on 45 routes. If they play mostly zone again, Bowers should be open a lot and get fed the ball. He’s practiced fully all week, so I’m seeing 11-12 targets and 7-8 catches, giving him an excellent chance to clear at least 65 yards in this Thursday Night Football matchup.
Troy Franklin Over 40.5 receiving yards (-115, Fanatics)
Handicapping the secondary Denver receivers can be maddening, with head coach Sean Payton typically using a variety of players, but no Marvin Mims is huge for Franklin’s chances, and it’s a very solid spot overall. For one, the Raiders deploy the second-highest rate of Cover 3 (43.4%), and he averages an excellent 2.26 YPRR and .22 TPRR on 93 routes against the coverage. They also play a ton of zone in general at 86%, and Bo Nix is not great against zone, so we may not see any big plays. However, since they use two-high safeties about half the time, Peyton should be able to scheme up plays for Franklin in the soft areas of the zone underneath, where he can run after the catch on plays like shallow crossers and the like. Franklin got only 4/27 receiving on 10 targets (27%) last week, but he was all over the place and had many chances to make plays and/or score, as teams are looking to take Courtland Sutton out these days. I see them making Sutton a marked man in this one, so Franklin should be quite busy with Nix, his former college QB at Oregon.
Ashton Jeanty Over 17.5 receiving yards (-115, BETMGM)
Denver gives up the second-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.32) and the 11th-fewest rushing YPG (79.6), so it’s a tough spot for Ashton Jeanty, who rushed for only 13/42 against the Jaguars last week. But he looked great in the passing game, putting up 5/47/1 receiving, and he had a 90% snap share and a 58% route share coming out of their bye, which bodes well for his receiving production in this one. They don’t hand receiving production to RBs, but they give up the 15th-most receiving YPG (31.1) to RBs. Back in Week 7, Cam Skattebo put up 3/34/1 receiving on six targets, and back in Week 5, Saquon Barkley got them for 3/35/1 in the passing game with a long of 47. Jeanty sees a 56.5% increase to his TPRR against zone, which Denver used over 70% of the time last week, so he should be used as a checkdown guy in this one with 3-4 targets with the Raiders coming in as 9-point road underdogs.
J.K. Dobbins Over 68.5 rushing yards (-110, DraftKings)
Dobbins has hit 61+ rushing yards in eight of his first nine games, and he’s hit 69 rushing yards in six of nine games, or 66.6% of the time. He looked very good again last week, and he led R.J. Harvey in carry share by a very wide margin (65%>9%), so the veteran is still the clear top runner. The Raiders do give up the fourth-fewest adjusted YBC/ATT (1.47) and the 16th-fewest rushing YPG (86.5), but Dobbins got them for 10/135/1 and 18/63 rushing last season as a Charger. They have also been more generous against zone concept runs this season, giving up the 11th-highest success rate and the 12th-highest YPC average against zone runs (4.3), and among 44 RBs with at least 50 carries this season, Dobbins’ 6.2 YPC is the best in the league. Third on that list is Travis Etienne (5.85 YPC vs. zone concepts runs), and he got the Raiders just last week for 22/84 rushing.
Geno Smith Under 208.5 passing yards (-111, DraftKings)
Full disclosure: this is a prop I’d leave alone most of the time, but I’m proactively looking for Unders here in Novunder, and I see this one as the best play. The Broncos have used the second-highest rate of man coverage (40.1%), which is a positive for Geno, who averages 7.14 YPA on 83 dropbacks against man. However, he still has a -7.6% CPOE against the coverage, and the problem this week is the Broncos played zone over 70% of the time last week without
Patrick Surtain (out again Week 10), so they may not even bother playing much man coverage. Denver also has a strong run defense to limit the Raiders offense, and the Broncos are fourth in pressure rate (43.2%) and Geno’s YPA (7.51>5.85), passer rating (97.8>45.7), and CPOE (2.5%>-11%) plummet against pressure. Denver gives up the 10th-fewest passing YPG (213.7), and two weeks ago, Dak Prescott posted 188 scoreless yards against them with CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens at WR to throw to. With veteran Jacobi Meyers traded, Geno will be trying to complete passes to the likes of Tre Tucker, Dont’e Thornton, and Tyler Lockett, who just joined the team. This may be very close, but I’d give this a 65% chance of ultimately hitting in tonight’s Thursday Night Football matchup.
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