On Monday, December 29, the Atlanta Falcons host the Los Angeles Rams in the Week 17 Monday Night Football game. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 17 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Rams vs. Falcons
When: Monday, December 29 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Merdedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta, Georgia
Channel: ABC / ESPN
Rams vs. Falcons Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Sunday, December 28 Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Rams -395, Falcons +310
Spread: Rams -7 (-115), Falcons +7 (-105)
Total: Over 49.5 (-120), Under 49.5 (+100)
Rams vs. Falcons Analysis
Whether you’re looking at DVOA or EPA per play, the Rams are the best team in football this year. That’s probably why people are expecting the Rams to dominate the Falcons. When looking at our VSiN betting splits pages, there’s a massive amount of tickets on Los Angeles. However, after opening as 8.5-point favorites at DraftKings Sportsbook, the Rams are now favored by only a touchdown. Meanwhile, at Circa Sports, Los Angeles is favored by 7.5 after opening at -8.
There’s clearly some sharp action on the Falcons in this game, as the reverse line movement we’re seeing is rather significant. And I’m a little excited to see some of the smartest bettors on the planet on Atlanta, as the Falcons also look like the right side to me.
While Los Angeles has been excellent this season, Atlanta has covered in back-to-back games — and three of its last five. Also, when looking at Weeks 15 and 16, the Falcons were sixth in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play (0.290). That’s actually not far off the Rams’ 0.345. Kirk Cousins has just been in good command of this offense, and he has made a real weapon out of tight end Kyle Pitts. When you add in the fact that Bijan Robinson is one of the best running backs in football, this suddenly looks like an offense that can hang with anyone.
The Falcons are also fourth in the NFL in Pass Rush Win Rate (42%), which is interesting heading into this game. While Matthew Stafford has played like an MVP this season, he is an older quarterback and doesn’t move that well. He doesn’t want to be consistently pressured throughout this one.
Atlanta has also been good on Monday Night Football under Raheem Morris. The team is 3-0 straight-up and 2-0-1 against the spread when playing in these games. On top of that, the Falcons are 8-4-1 ATS as underdogs of 3.5 to 9.5 points under Morris.
Rams vs. Falcons Player Props
Lean: Kyle Pitts Over 54.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Even if Drake London plays, I don’t see Cousins completely going away from Pitts. The tight end just continues to deliver for him, looking exactly like the player he was supposed to be when drafted out of the University of Florida. Pitts comes into this one having had at least 57 receiving yards in four consecutive games, making a total of 54.5 seem quite low. I’m not expecting another double-digit targets, like we have seen in two of the last three. But if Cousins looks his way six or seven times, Pitts should deliver an Over here.
Rams vs. Falcons Pick
Cousins is really playing some good football right now, as he’s 12th in the NFL in Pro Football Focus’ quarterback rankings (78.0). Well, if he can perform at a high level here, the Falcons should find a way to hang around. Atlanta just needs to be ready to defend the run. That has been a problem for the Falcons over the course of the season, but I trust a defensive-minded coach like Morris to figure it out on a longer week. This game also means a little more to Atlanta than Los Angeles thanks to some of Sunday’s results.
Bet: Falcons +7.5 (-110 – 1.5 units)
