The first of two Monday Night Football matchups in Week 7 of the 2024 NFL season features the Tampa Bay Buccaneers hosting the Baltimore Ravens at Raymond James Stadium. We’ll be diving into all of the primetime games this season, and this one isn’t any different. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 7 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!

 

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How To Watch Ravens vs. Buccaneers

When: Monday, October 21st at 8:15 pm ET

Where: Raymond James Stadium in Tampa Bay, Florida

Channel: ABC/ESPN/ESPN+

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Saturday, October 19th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Ravens -180, Buccaneers +150

Spread: Ravens -3.5 (-110), Buccaneers +3.5 (-110)

Total: Over 49.5 (-108), Under 49.5 (-112)

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Analysis

The Ravens were 5-point favorites when this thing opened, but the line is down to 3.5. That’s worth noting because a majority of the bets have been on Baltimore. That reverse line movement would suggest some sharp action on Tampa Bay. The total in this one is also up from 47.5 to 49.5.

While the sharps are on the Buccaneers, I can’t quite get there in this game. I won’t end up being on either side, but I definitely lean Baltimore. The team is just a little sharper offensively. And while things have been pretty miserable for the Ravens on the defensive side of the ball, I trust them a little more to get stops in key situations here. But I definitely think this will be a game in which stops will be hard to come by, which is why the Over would be my favorite play in this matchup.

This season, Tampa Bay is just 25th in the league in Rush EPA per play allowed (-0.011). And if the Buccaneers can’t find a way to slow down Derrick Henry, this game will get out of hand in a hurry. Well, that’s something that nobody has been able to do this season. Henry has rushed for at least 132 yards in three of the last four games, and he’s up to 704 yards and eight touchdowns on 119 carries. Also, if the Buccaneers do stack the box to try and solve the Henry problem, Lamar Jackson will shred them up — whether it’s with his arm or his legs. Jackson is PFF’s third-ranked passer this year, and we all know what he can do as a runner.

The Ravens defense also has some major issues, as this team is 23rd in the league in EPA per play allowed (0.069). And the reason Baltimore ranks so poorly is because the passing defense has been a nightmare. The Ravens are 27th in the NFL in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.190), and that’s not where you want to be against this Buccaneers offense. Baker Mayfield and Co. are seventh in the league in Dropback EPA per play (0.155), and he has been lighting teams up all year long. Mayfield leads the NFL in touchdown passes (15), and he’s also second in Passer Rating (109.4). So, you shouldn’t be surprised if he puts up some big numbers in this game.

Overall, there’s a reason that Baltimore has gone Over in five of its six games this year, and Tampa Bay has done so in four of its six. These are two teams with explosive offenses and shaky defenses. That’s a pretty good recipe for an Over.

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Player Props

Baker Mayfield Over 1.5 Passing Touchdowns (-107)

Mayfield has thrown for at least two touchdowns in each of his last three games, and he has a total of seven passing touchdowns over the last two weeks. Mayfield now gets to go to work against a Ravens secondary that has struggled all year, making it hard to imagine a scenario in which he won’t throw for another two scores. Also, three of the last four quarterbacks that the Ravens have played have thrown for two or more touchdowns. So, if this game ends up living up to its shootout potential, Mayfield’s arm will play a big role in that.

Ravens vs. Buccaneers Pick

If this total gets back to 48.5 or lower, the Over would be an official play for me. However, as things currently stand, I just have a lean on the Over. I also like the Mayfield player prop quite a bit. But I’m not rushing to the window for anything here. This will be a fun game to watch, but it’s not one I’m dying to bet.

Lean: Over 49.5 (-110)

NOTE: I ended up finding Over 48.5 at -128 and playing it. I think it’s worth paying up a little for this bet.

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