On Thursday, October 30, the Miami Dolphins host the Baltimore Ravens for some Week 9 Thursday Night Football. Lamar Jackson is set to return to action for Baltimore here, making this one of the most exciting matchups on the NFL schedule. With that in mind, keep reading for betting odds, picks, and player props for this exciting showdown. Also, make sure you head over to our Week 9 NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Ravens vs. Dolphins
When: Thursday, October 30 at 8:15 pm ET
Where: Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida
Channel: Prime Video (Amazon)
Ravens vs. Dolphins Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook accurate as of Tuesday, October 28. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Ravens -425, Dolphins +330
Spread: Ravens -7.5 (-112), Dolphins +7.5 (-108)
Total: Over 50.5 (-120), Under 50.5 (+100)
Ravens vs. Dolphins Analysis
There won’t be a shortage of bettors on Baltimore this week. Miami has been one of the worst teams in football all season, so Jackson being back will make the Ravens one of the most popular favorites of Week 9. Our VSiN betting splits already show an overwhelming majority of tickets and handle on the road team, and you can definitely count on Baltimore being a popular teaser leg and moneyline parlay anchor.
The Ravens are coming off a good win over the Bears last week, earning a 30-16 victory with Tyler Huntley under center. The defense definitely looked better coming out of the bye, and the talent on both rosters definitely suggests a comfortable Baltimore win here. However, I don’t want to discount Miami’s win either. Atlanta has had some stellar defensive performances this year, but Tua Tagovailoa and Co. put 34 on them in a road win. The Dolphins have had every reason to roll over and quit this season, but they continue to fight. That’s why I’m not personally going to do anything with the Ravens, even if it is pretty tempting.
Honestly, the play here looks to be the Over. I feel like I have been taking a lot of these this season, but these are two of the worst defenses in the NFL. The Dolphins are currently 27th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.114) while the Ravens are 30th (0.148). Also, both of these teams are in the league’s bottom five when it comes to Dropback EPA per play allowed. I’m just not sure either secondary can be trusted to come away with consistent stops against two passing offenses that can be very dangerous.
I’ll also add that these teams should be very familiar with what the opposing defenses are looking to do. Anthony Weaver, Miami’s defensive coordinator, came over from Baltimore, so the Ravens should know exactly what they’re looking at here. Also, Baltimore defensive coordinator Zach Orr worked with Weaver, so the Dolphins are probably going to know what the Ravens want to do. That should really help both offenses as they put together their plans this week.
It’s also worth noting that the Over is 26-6 since 1983 in games with totals of 49.5 or higher involving a team that has lost four or five of its last six games and two teams with winning percentages between 25% and 40%. The average total points scored in that betting system is 60.8 points per game.
Some coaching trends favor the Over as well. The over is 6-4-1 in games Baltimore has played with a total of 49.5 or higher under John Harbaugh. It’s also 23-16 when the Ravens have played teams with winning percentages of 25% or worse under Harbaugh. Meanwhile, the Over is 6-2 when the Dolphins are coming off a two-game road trip under Mike McDaniel. They’ll be amped up to be returning home to Hard Rock Stadium, which could mean they’ll do their part in a shootout.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Player Props
Lean: Tua Tagovailoa Over 217.5 Passing Yards (-105)
Last week, Tagovailoa threw for 205 yards with four touchdowns and no picks against a good Falcons defense. This week, look for Tagavailoa’s yardage to go up a little. He’ll likely have to throw a lot to keep up with Jackson and the Ravens offense. In fact, our OptaAI player prop projections have Tagovailoa throwing for 266.94 yards in this game. That’s an edge of 49.44 yards to the Over, which will be hard to top as one of the biggest margins of the week. Realistically, it isn’t hard to see why. Baltimore is 30th in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.148), and the passing defense has been a huge problem all year.
Ravens vs. Dolphins Pick
It’ll take some fireworks for this game to go Over a total of 50.5, but that’s exactly what I’m expecting here. Jackson should put up some big numbers in his return to action, and Derrick Henry should also run all over this Dolphins defense. However, Miami’s high-end offensive players will be similarly looking forward to this meeting with Baltimore.
Bet: Over 50.5 (-110)
