Ravens vs. Dolphins – Thursday Night Football Prop Best Bets from John Hansen:
Here are this week’s Thursday Night Football props.
Derrick Henry Over 90.5 rushing yards (-113, DraftKings)
Miami has stopped the run well the last two weeks, and in Week 8, they loaded up to stop Bijan Robinson and shut him down. But that was with a washed-up Kirk Cousins at QB, and the Falcons were an overall no-show as a team last week. As improved as they’ve been against the run, Miami is still giving up 5.0 YPC to RBs, along with the third-most rushing YPG (117.6). The threat of Lamar Jackson running should make things easier for Henry, and unlike last week, Henry should also be aided by Baltimore’s passing game, which will likely hit on 1-2 big plays over the middle (see Mark Andrews below). Henry is averaging 22.5 carries over his past two games, and the Ravens only trailed by multiple scores on three drives in those two games, compared to 14 of their 20 drives over the previous two games. They are 7.5 road favorites in a must-win game against a very beatable opponent, so with Ravens FB Patrick Ricard back, I’m not going to overthink it against a defense that gave up 41/330 rushing to Kimani Vidal and Rico Dowdle this month.
Jaylen Waddle Over 4.5 receptions (-148, FanDuel)
Excluding a bad weather game two weeks ago against the Browns, Waddle is averaging 7.7 targets (WR18), 102.0 air yards (WR11), 101.3 receiving yards (WR3), and 19.9 FPG (WR6), since Tyreek Hill went down. He’s usually better against zone, but Waddle’s averaging a very solid 1.89 YPRR and .29 TPRR on 35 routes against man this year, and Baltimore uses man coverage at the third-highest rate (39.4%). Tua Tagovailoa is coming off his best game of the season, but I’m opting for the catch prop for Waddle over the yardage prop, just in case, since Tua averages a weaker 5.90 YPA with a -.6% CPOE on 43 dropbacks against man. However, Tua is traditionally better against man in his career, and the Ravens play softer coverage, so I don’t think Miami will have any problems getting Waddle the ball. He should see 7+ targets with a good gamescript as 7.5 home underdogs, so I’ll risk a little more than usual with these so-so odds for what should be a sure win, barring an injury or a complete offensive meltdown.
De’Von Achane Over 31.5 receiving yards (-113, DraftKings)
Achane hasn’t hit this number since Week 2, so it’s a bit of a projection, but Mike McDaniel is hanging in there in terms of designing an effective offense, and Achane looks due to step up in the passing game in this one. Baltimore gives up the eighth-most receiving YPG (37.7) to RBs, and last week, D’Andre Swift had a 25-yard catch and 2/26 on only two targets. The week before that, Kyren Williams got 2/27 on only two targets with a long of 30 yards, and they’ve also given up promising receiving production this year to RBs Jahmyr Gibbs and James Cook. Back in December of 2023, Miami lost to the Ravens 56-19, and Achane and Jeff Wilson combined for nine targets and 7/43/1 receiving, so I’d have to think Achane will see at least seven looks in this one.
Mark Andrews Over 25.5 receiving yards (-140, Fanatics)
Miami’s giving up the seventh-most receiving YPG (63.6) and the seventh-most receptions per game (6.3) to TEs, as well as the second-most schedule-adjusted FPG to TEs line up in-line on the season (+3.2). They’re also surprisingly giving up the 3rd-fewest FPG to WRs lined up in the slot (-2.9) and the 7th-fewest to WRs in general (-4.5). The middle of the field is where you attack Miami in the passing game, and they’ve been hit by TEs most weeks, like last week, when Kyle Pitts caught all nine of his targets for 59 yards with a long of 24 yards. The week before, Harold Fannin led the Browns’ receiving corps and got 31% of their passing yards in a bad weather game (4/36 on 5 targets with a long of 19). The week before that was Oronde Gadsden’s breakout game with 7/68 on 8 targets with a long of 21. It’s not the greatest schematic matchup for Andrews, as Miami deploys Cover 2 (29.5%) and Cover 3 (22.5%) at a 52% clip, and he averages a weaker 1.35 YPRR and .18 TPRR on 62 routes against those coverages, so I absolutely expect Isaiah Likely to be a factor. But Likely’s yet to hit three receptions or exceed 12 yards in a game this year, so I like Andrews to make at least one big play down the seam. He probably will max out at 3-4 catches with Likely more involved, but he may not need more than two receptions to get this.
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