Schein 9 NFL:

I will always and forever argue that Divisional Round weekend in the NFL is the best weekend in sports. Let’s go!

The matchups are sizzling. They have to be better than last week, right?

 

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Here’s our latest piping-hot Schein 9 to get you set:

1. Freak Show

I love Lamar Jackson. I love Josh Allen. Loved them in the 2018 draft. Voted Jackson twice for MVP the years he won. Voted Allen for this year’s honor, with Jackson getting my second-place vote. I’m obsessed with their talent, leadership, poise, ability to do everything on the football field at the most important position in sports, and their capacity to maximize everyone on their respective teams.

And it’s not hyperbole to call this highly anticipated quarterback matchup historic. These two quarterbacks will always be linked by draft class, multifaceted greatness, and—so far—their inability to climb Mahomes Mountain, beat the Chiefs, and get to the Super Bowl.

Consider this:

  • Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen are the top two quarterbacks in regular-season winning percentage in the Super Bowl era without a Super Bowl start.
  • This is the first playoff matchup ever between quarterbacks with 40+ total touchdowns and under 10 turnovers in the regular season.
  • Allen’s and Jackson’s 2024 seasons are two of only three instances in NFL history where quarterbacks have had 40+ total touchdowns, 500+ rushing yards, and fewer than seven interceptions in a season. The other? Lamar Jackson’s 2019 MVP season.
  • Oh, and they’re also the top two quarterbacks in career playoff rushing yards.
  • Now, the pressure: The Ravens have 78 regular-season wins during the Mahomes starting era (2018–present), while the Bills have 77. The Chiefs have been vulnerable all year, and I think the winner of this game beats Kansas City in KC.

Which leads me to why Allen will win. The line started with Buffalo favored by 1.5, but now it’s swung to the Ravens -1.5. Baltimore has more talent around its star quarterback and has been playing great. But Allen’s postseason numbers and feel have been vastly superior to Jackson’s.

The difference this time? Derrick Henry might make an impact, but James Cook’s emergence and Allen’s ability to spread the ball brilliantly come into play. The injured defenders from Buffalo’s Week 4 loss to the Ravens are now healthy. Plus, the weather and crowd in Buffalo are sure to be factors.

I think both quarterbacks will play brilliantly, but Allen will be just a bit better and win a classic. Buffalo on the moneyline.

2. Prop Kings

I keep staring at the available Allen and Jackson props and drooling.

  • Allen over 240.5 passing yards at -115? Yes.
  • Jackson over 288.5 total yards at -110? Sounds terrific.
  • Jackson over 52.5 rushing yards? Yes, sir.
  • James Cook over 54.5 rushing yards? Sizzling.
  • Dawson Knox over 13.5 receiving yards? Playoff Knox? Why not?
  • Allen anytime TD +115? Can’t stop, won’t stop.

3. Super Bet

My favorite Super Bowl bet before the playoffs was Buffalo to win it all. The Bills now have the fifth-longest odds at +550. Seems like a good time to sprinkle.

The Bills/Eagles Super Bowl matchup odds I liked when the bracket was set are now at +800. Just saying…

4. Chief Concern

The Chiefs are rested, and that’s great for this version of the team. Andy Reid always wins off a bye, and with three weeks between games, this is a bye on speed.

But the Texans woke up on that 3rd-and-16 play that seemed busted, and C.J. Stroud turned it into a majestic gain. It flipped the script against the Chargers. Stroud and Nico Collins were cooking, and the elite pass rush and defense were humming. DeMeco Ryans’ coaching and energy were contagious. The Texans thrive as underdogs.

Don’t misinterpret me—the Chiefs will win. But 8.5 feels too steep. KC is 7-9-1 against the spread this year. Houston comes within the number.

5. Ram Tough

The fact that the Rams were able to slaughter the Vikings and demolish them was noteworthy. It’s even more impressive when you consider the awful destruction and devastation in Los Angeles.

This team is incredible. Sean McVay is an absolute gem. That’s why I had him ranked second on my coach confidence list last week on Make it Rain on VSiN.

The McVay and Matthew Stafford combination is special. Stafford was fourth on my quarterback confidence list. This is why we bet on the Rams preseason, backed them, and believed in them despite the injuries.

If only I had picked them against the Vikings! Shame on me.

We credited McVay for resting Stafford and his offensive starters. LA didn’t care about the seed. The Rams dealt with a ton of adversity this season. McVay got everyone healthy and trusted his future Hall of Fame quarterback. It paid off instantly with that dynamite drive to start the game against Brian Flores’ defense.

Stafford is now 5-1 in his Rams playoff career. He’s 7-1 in his last eight games, including Monday night, with 13 touchdowns against just one interception.

Saquon Barkley ran through the Rams defense to the Eagles franchise-record tune of 255 yards when the two teams met in the regular season. The challenge for the Rams’ talented young defense will be much tougher against an amazing Eagles offensive line and Barkley. But the Rams defense was dynamite down the stretch.

Jalen Hurts didn’t play great, and the rust showed on Sunday against the Packers. A.J. Brown had one catch on three targets for 10 yards—all season lows. The quarterback and head coach advantage is too much to ignore. I think the Rams keep this within the 5.5-point spread.

6. Jayden’s Genius

Sure, Jayden Daniels is a rookie on the back of his bubble gum card, but there’s nothing about his game that screams “novice.” Daniels’ clutch play is next level during this rookie season for the ages.

Washington has nine wins by six or fewer points—the most in NFL history. You give Daniels an inch (the Bucs’ inability to pick up a first down on 2nd-and-1 and 3rd-and-1… Baker’s fumble on an end around), and he kills you.

The Commanders have six wins when tied or trailing in the final 10 seconds of regulation or in OT this season—two more than any other team in a season since 2000 (including playoffs). Read that sentence a few times. That’s insane. That’s Jayden Daniels.

He’s one of only four rookies to win road playoff games in league history. I love the Lions to win at home—they match up well against Washington’s defense—but we’ve reached the point where it’s disrespectful to Daniels to think he won’t come within the number at 9.5.

7. Bad Hand

Wild Card Weekend simply wasn’t very competitive. The teams that didn’t take Week 18 seriously (Texans, Rams, Bills, Eagles) all won. So it worked. But the current format needs help.

I’ve always hated playoff expansion because it allows for average playoff teams. I wish the 2-seed still got the bye. Week 18 lacked total drama, and Wild Card Weekend was anything but “super.”

I’ve also been against reseeding for the playoffs. I’ve always believed a division winner should get a home game. Not anymore. If you seed by record (division winners still automatically get in), it would make Week 18 more exciting and Wild Card Weekend matchups more equitable.

8. Cowboy Up

You’ve gotta love the fact that DraftKings has odds attached to the next head coach of the Dallas Cowboys.

After Adam Schefter’s report that Jerry Jones talked to Deion Sanders, the Colorado coach and former Cowboys star is the favorite at +100. It makes a lot of sense for Dallas—Deion is fantastic and knows the deal with the Jones family and how meddlesome Jerry can be. But will Deion, the ultimate alpha male, want that?

I think former Cowboys offensive coordinator and Jerry favorite Kellen Moore is a better bet at +300. Even though the hire isn’t inspiring, it feels more realistic.

9. Sam I Was

And you know there’s no joy for me phrasing it that way as the founder and president of the Sam Darnold Fan Club.

Darnold’s first 17 weeks were incredible. The final game of the regular season? Dreadful. Somehow, stunningly, the playoff game was worse. This was Jets-era Darnold—seeing ghosts and all—looking skittish, spooked, and lost in the pocket, taking nine sacks against the Rams.

Darnold completed just 53% of his passes against the Lions and Rams after rocking a 68% completion rate through his first 16 games.

I scoff at the notion that Darnold lost money. He was always going to get a contract in the Baker Mayfield/Geno Smith range—guys who bounced around and found homes. And the Tua/Lawrence/Love deals are cautionary tales, not baselines.

I can’t forget about Darnold being carried on the shoulders of his teammates after Week 17 against Green Bay. He threw for 35 touchdowns, won 14 games, and passed for over 4,000 yards.

The Vikings should still consider him for 2025 and beyond. But the last two weeks were so dreadful—a reminder of what he was. Frankly, I’d bang the drum for a no-doubt return, but they still have J.J. McCarthy, who I like a lot, and you have to factor in the rookie contract.

Can I see Darnold with Ben Johnson, Tom Brady, and the Raiders? Absolutely. Mike Tomlin’s Steelers on a two-year deal? Of course. Titans? Giants? Yes and yes.

Darnold turned back into a pumpkin and derailed my Vikings dreams after a majestic regular season. But I still think Cinderella has another act.

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