Schein 9 NFL Week 16:

And down the stretch we come! Week 15 brought clarity to the MVP race, confusion about the Defensive Player of the Year, and bad teams and organizations showcasing their sheer buffoonery.

Here are our midweek musings, hottest takes, and crystal ball predictions, Schein 9 style:

 

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1. You hate that? You hate that!

Kirk Cousins has, simply put, been the worst quarterback in the NFL over the past five weeks. We strongly argued that Cousins should have been benched before the Raiders game in favor of first-round pick, 8th overall, quarterback Michael Penix Jr. The team didn’t make the change, and it was a mistake. The Falcons nearly lost to the Raiders. Cousins looked dreadful against an inept Raiders defense that didn’t even have Maxx Crosby, who’s out for the season. Cousins has no zip on his throws, his accuracy is atrocious, and he can’t move. Over his last five games, Cousins is 1-4 with one touchdown (Monday against the Raiders) and nine interceptions. Cousins leads the league in interceptions this year.

I would have never picked Penix—who I love—at No. 8 after re-signing Cousins. I would’ve drafted defense or traded down (teams wanted to trade up for Penix, J.J. McCarthy, Brock Bowers, and Rome Odunze) to stockpile picks for defensive help. Atlanta ignored their defensive needs, and the pass rush has been terrible.

If you take a stud quarterback, and your starter coming off a major injury is clearly inept, but you still refuse to play the rookie—this is organizational malpractice. The Saints have been an injured mess. Carolina remains one of the league’s worst teams. Tampa has dealt with injuries all year but managed to catch fire and win. When Atlanta misses the playoffs and the Bucs win the South (+210), the Falcons will have nobody to blame but themselves for having no feel, no plan, no continuity, and no clue.

Penix should start against the Giants to prepare for the huge Sunday Night Week 17 game in Washington against the Commanders.

Editor’s note: Michael Penix will indeed start.

2. Buc-ing the Odds

No team in the NFL had a more impressive Week 15 win than the Bucs, who obliterated the Chargers and their elite defense in LA. Baker Mayfield is on fire. Mike Evans continues to play like the first-ballot Hall of Famer he is. The offensive line has been stellar. The defense shut down Justin Herbert in the second half.

Remember, the Falcons swept the Bucs this year, so Atlanta holds the head-to-head tiebreaker. That’s an important backdrop. The Bucs, however, have been dominant in December and January over the past two seasons. That’s football character. That’s coaching. That’s toughness.

The Buccaneers have now won four straight after starting 4-6. They could become the first team in NFL history to start 4-6 and make the playoffs in back-to-back seasons.

Dallas has also been strong down the stretch and might’ve been in contention if they hadn’t “Leon Lett-ed” the game away against Cincy. But they did. Their bounce-back win against the Panthers was impressive. Mike McCarthy has a case to stay as head coach—and he should.

Tampa is 12-4 against the spread in November or later since 2023. The Cowboys haven’t covered at home all year. While this game gives you pause, I’ll take the Bucs and lay the 4.5 on Baker’s momentum and toughness.

3. Just Lose, Baby

Players don’t tank, but organizations can certainly assist the process. The fly in the ointment is when a truly terrible team is coached by someone who won’t be there next year. This brings us to the classic showdown between the 2-12 Raiders and the 3-13 Jaguars in Vegas.

The Raiders currently hold the top draft slot. That would be Shedeur Sanders for a team desperate for a franchise quarterback. Antonio Pierce cannot be the long-term coach of this sinking ship. Pierce became head coach because the team hated Josh McDaniels, played hard after his firing, and Davante Adams wanted him. Mark Davis let Rich Bisaccia walk after he guided the team to the playoffs following Jon Gruden’s ouster. That was a mistake. Hiring McDaniels was another mistake—a brilliant offensive coordinator but a terrible head coach. Now Davis risks overreacting and keeping Pierce, who brings nothing special to the table.

And to think Jim Harbaugh had interest in the Raiders job for years, but they never even called him. Shameful. Oh, and about Adams’ endorsement…

Pierce will want to win. Aidan O’Connell—clearly more competent than Desmond Ridder—might be back under center. Vegas hasn’t won since beating the Browns in Week 4. This 10-game losing streak is the 5th-longest in franchise history. The Raiders need the top pick, a new head coach, and Tom Brady involved somehow. I want the Raiders to be relevant again. But my fear? They’ve got Mac Jones coming to town. And the Raiders are favored in this game. Gulp.

4. Bear It

I don’t like to throw around the “Q word” (“quit”) casually from a studio chair. Saying a team has quit is tough. But I’m very comfortable saying that about the Bears since the Hail Mary debacle. They have completely wasted Caleb Williams’s talent. The organizational hierarchy is a mess. The image of Williams sitting on the bench Monday night, slumped to the side like the actor in the old V8 commercial, was painfully fitting.

This team needs a heart transplant, a clear direction, an offensive line, and leadership from a GM and team president who actually see the same vision. Mike Vrabel is the guy to fix this, but will he even want to deal with this insanity?

5. Viking Quest

You know I’m not just hopping on the Vikings’ 2024 bandwagon—I built it with my own two hands. I love the Vikings at +210 to win the NFC North. The Lions’ injuries are simply too much to overcome. Combine that with Dan Campbell’s reckless coaching—like the onside kick against the Bills when down 10 with 12 minutes left—and it’s clear they’re faltering.

We’ve been obsessed with the Vikings all year. Sam Darnold has been phenomenal, and he’s getting my vote for Comeback Player of the Year. It’s amazing what elite coaching (Kevin O’Connell is my Coach of the Year) and strong weapons can do for a quarterback. Justin Jefferson is a superstar. Jordan Addison has been the perfect complement. Despite injuries, the offensive line has held up. Aaron Jones has been a fantastic addition and a massive upgrade.

The defense is brilliantly coached and has become a playmaking, shutdown unit. I think the Vikings are absolutely capable of a Super Bowl run. I rank them second behind the Eagles.

Before you start poking holes in Darnold based on his past, let me remind you—this is Sam Darnold, Vikings quarterback. Totally different guy. And outside of Matthew Stafford, the NFC playoff teams don’t exactly have a lineup of surefire Hall of Famers at quarterback.

6. MVP Race Over

Congratulations to Josh Allen for locking up the MVP with another Superman-like performance. Doing it in Detroit against the Lions made it even more impressive. This game was over when Allen ran in two touchdowns in the first quarter for a 14-0 lead. On the day, Allen went 23/34 for 362 passing yards, two passing touchdowns, 68 rushing yards, two rushing touchdowns, and no turnovers. Again, wow.

Here are some nuggets of domination:

  • Only QB in NFL history with 2+ passing TDs and 2+ rushing TDs in back-to-back games.
  • Back-to-back games with 340+ passing yards, 2+ passing TDs, 60+ rushing yards, and 2+ rushing TDs.
  • Prior to last week, Steve Young was the only QB in NFL history to achieve 340-2-60-2 in a game (1991).
  • 14 total TDs (passing/rushing/receiving) in the last three games, with 0 sacks, 0 fumbles, and 0 interceptions.
  • Only QB since 1970 with 6+ passing TDs and 6+ rushing TDs in a three-game span.
  • Only QB with no sacks, fumbles, or interceptions in three straight starts this season.
  • Allen was majestic against the Chiefs, dominant in Detroit, and has carried the Bills to Super Bowl-favorite status. The next three games are against the Patriots twice and the Jets. The big tests are over. The MVP race is over. I hope you grabbed Allen preseason at +950, because this is a season for the ages.

7. Action Jackson

Lamar Jackson throwing for more touchdowns than incompletions (5 TDs to 4 incompletions) deserves celebration. I don’t care that it was against the Giants. I love Lamar. Declaring the MVP race over isn’t a slight to him, nor is it due to award fatigue. To stress this point—past performance should never influence a single-season award.

Jackson is sitting at No. 2 or No. 3 on my MVP ballot. How he performs against the Steelers will be pivotal. He didn’t play well in Pittsburgh earlier this season. The Steelers have historically been his kryptonite: Jackson is 1-4 against them, with 11 interceptions compared to five total touchdowns. Sure, the Steelers play great defense, but those numbers are staggering for a superstar.

I think Baltimore will beat the Steelers on Saturday, then follow it up with wins over Houston and Cleveland.

Pittsburgh, on the other hand, could lose out with their remaining schedule (Ravens, Chiefs, Joe Burrow). The Ravens remain my pick to win the AFC North.

8. Where’s the D?

This has been the strangest year ever for the Defensive Player of the Year race. There’s no clear, lights-out candidate. In past years, there have been several dominant seasons to choose from. We yearn for battles like Charles Woodson vs. Darrelle Revis or Myles Garrett vs. T.J. Watt.

Right now, T.J. Watt has my vote. I’ve used this space and “Make it Rain” on VSiN to highlight Patrick Surtain’s candidacy, and he now has the second-best odds. However, I can’t vote for the second-best defender on the Broncos when players like Jonathan Greenard, Derrick Stingley Jr., Budda Baker, and Trey Hendrickson are having strong seasons. This award might come down to the wire. Watt’s health and performance over the next few weeks will play a significant role in the outcome.

9. Beg, Burrow, Steal

Joe Burrow was visibly frustrated with everything during the Bengals’ win over the Titans—line play, penalties, coaching, maybe even the price of gas. And honestly, I don’t blame him. But at least the Bengals covered, which we called as the best bet of the week.

Cincy is favored by 6.5 against the Browns, who are a complete disaster. Jameis Winston might get benched for Dorian Thompson-Robinson—more like WTF than DTR. Burrow is playing for Offensive Player of the Year, while Tee Higgins and Ja’Marr Chase are playing for their next contracts. That’s plenty of motivation. The Bengals, 8-6 ATS this year, will cover again.

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