Schein 9 NFL Week 4:

Week 3 was one for the ages. Five different moneyline winners who were dogs of 5.5 points or more. The fact that the Broncos, Panthers, Commanders, Giants, Rams all won was simply wild.

And at least the house of cards Chiefs got a favorable non-call on the Kyle Pitts mugging in the endzone to help them win. 

 

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Yes, I had Atlanta moneyline. But the point still stands. So does my frustration with Zac Robinson’s play calling on 3rd-and-1 and 4th-and-inches.

We try to see the light through the amazing insanity with our midweek musings, Schein 9 style.

1. Josh Allen’s Revenge

The Josh Allen you-voted-me-most-overrated-NFL-player tour is real and spectacular. So are his MVP odds. Hope you got them preseason when I told you he would win the award. Allen has now emerged as the favorite in Vegas for MVP. It was clear talking with him on our Schein On Sports radio show before the season he loved the chemistry of this receiver room and how there’s no ego. Great for the Bills, maybe not for anytime touchdown bets week in and week out.

I think the Bills take anything and everything personally right now and I love it. Including the fact that they are in my opinion the best team in the NFL and underdogs on the road in Baltimore on Sunday night. Lamar Jackson has won the MVP twice. Don’t think that isn’t lost on Allen in this showcase. Bills as an underdog ML +110? Yes please.

2. Out On Jags

I thought Jacksonville would bounce back from last year’s meltdown and make the playoffs. This is the first, and only, playoff team of mine I am jumping ship on early. Trevor Lawrence looks broken. The pick to Damar Hamlin looked like a Zach Wilson type of read and throw. The coaching has been deplorable.

 It’s rare that the DeMeco Ryans / CJ Stroud combo has been punked, but that’s just what the Vikings did to them last week. While Stroud split the two matchups with the Jaguars last year, he threw for an average of 292 passing yards completing 70 percent of his passes with 5 touchdowns and no picks. Lawrence is 0-14 in his career on the road when the opponent scores 25 or more points. And after last week’s humiliation, that’s what I am banking on for the Texans -7. I know there is going to be trepidation on big numbers after last week. I get it. Not here.

3. How Bout ‘dem Cowboys?

I think Derrick Henry is still running. Alvin Kamara, too. Dallas’s defense has been downright deplorable this season at home, inexplicably getting shredded in consecutive weeks. Dallas hadn’t lost consecutive home games since Dak Prescott was hurt in 2020. That trend was bucked by Henry, who told me on my SiriusXM Radio show in March in the interview that is still being quoted that he didn’t even get a call from the Cowboys. He wanted one. He has a home in Dallas. You can’t make it up.

You also can’t make up Dak’s domination against the spread against the Giants. Dallas is 5-0 against the spread at the Giants when Dak starts, averaging 33 points a game. The average closing spread has been 3.7 in those games. It’s 4.5 for Thursday. The Giants beat the Browns but let’s not get nuts here. The Giants are also 1-9 in their last 10 home primetime games, 2-8 ATS. Not quite sure how often I will say this but in terms of trends, matchups, and getting the heck out of Dallas, I love Dak and the Cowboys to bounce back, win, cover the 5.5-point spread, and pour on the points.

And maybe because I am a glutton for punishment, I still think Dallas makes the playoffs.

Speaking of which…

4. Bungals belief?

The Bengals loss to Washington as a 7.5-point home favorite was gross. And they already lost at home to the Patriots when favored by 9.5. Yikes. However, I did appreciate and agree with Joe Burrow’s postgame take that all is not lost and they haven’t played anyone in the division. Now, I don’t like the contract drama and noise around this team. I didn’t take them to win the division or make the Super Bowl like other media types. They were my last team in the playoffs. But I don’t think playoffs are out of the question despite the odds against them with the 0-3 start. I’d grab the Bengals at +105 to make the playoffs now. 

5. RAM-tastic!

How insane was the Rams comeback against the Niners? Well, the Rams had lost 101 straight games trailing by 14 or more points in the second half! And to do it without their two star receivers, the plethora of line injuries, and playing rival San Fran, well that just speaks to the awesome culture under Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford.

And our 8.5 win total over is back on! Same with over 10.5 when we juiced it to +185! And that’s the family over / under for my in-town friends text chain. So suddenly we are all Rams.

It’s not hyperbole to say that the all around team win saved the season. Now with the Rams going against Chicago in a coaching mismatch of epic proportions, 2-2 Rams is on the horizon.

6. Commanding Attention

Color me obsessed with Jayden Daniels’ Monday night showing, as the rookie became the first player in NFL history with a 90% completion percentage, over 250 yards passing, two passing touchdowns, and a rushing TD in the same game. And this is not a fluke. Daniels is special. And I love how he’s played for Kliff Kingsbury.

Ironically enough, it’s Kliff’s old team on tap next. And you know Kliff wants revenge and to show off his new special quarterback. But I think Kyler Murray is playing some of the best ball of his career. I think Marvin Harrison Jr. is very much in play with Daniels for Rookie of the Year. (I am not remotely giving up on Caleb Williams). The Cardinals have the fourth-highest scoring offense in the league. I love Daniels and Washington fans finally have a quarterback and can dream. But Arizona played the Lions and Bills really tough and smacked the hell out of the Rams. I dig the Cards to cover and am very impressed with Arizona’s progress despite the 1-2 record.

7. Best Jets Ever

Pardon Jets fans for being excited. Last week was a reminder of what a quarterback was supposed to look like. Long, sustained touchdown scoring drives! Third-down conversions! You gotta love sports! The Jets are 2-1 averaging 22 points a game. The Jets won two games COMBINED in September from 2019-2023! The last time the Jets won three games in September was 2009, when they went to the AFC title game. Last year they completed 26 percent on third down. Now, they are third in the league at 57%, highlighted by Aaron Rodgers genius on Thursday night.

Rodgers said after the game he feels like he did 3-4 years ago. Those were the MVP years. This was the 2023 vision before the injury.

Denver has a great coach in Sean Payton. That scares me in backing the Jets. Denver leads the NFL in blitz percentage. Another nugget of consternation. But Rodgers has the second-quickest release time in the NFL this year. Rodgers is vintage and the Jets have talent. This should be a double digit win at home.

8. I Do Like Them, Sam I Am

Suddenly, the Vikings have turned me into Dr. Seuss. And why not with another spanking of a great team. Sunday’s win over Houston, and how they beat the stuffing out of the seemingly unflappable Texans, was awesome. And another great result for Sam Darnold truthers like me. Amazing what happens when you have brilliant coaching and great players around you. This is the USC Sam Darnold only better. Kevin O’Connell is a gem. O’Connell and Brian Flores have matched wits and outfoxed gems in Kyle Shanahan and the Niners and DeMeco Ryans’ Texans. Matt LaFleur is up next in a battle of coaching of the year early favorites. 

Darnold is 3-0 and just threw for four touchdowns against Houston. Minnesota has sacked the quarterback more than anyone this year. Aaron Jones is on fire and this most certainly is a revenge game for him. The Vikings are 3-0 against the spread this year. And they are 2.5-point dogs at Lambeau. Can’t stop, won’t stop.

And if you are feeling plucky, check the odds on O’Connell for coach of the year, Vikings to win the North, Darnold for Comeback Player of the Year, and yes, Vikings to win the NFC. This team is not a fluke.

9. Business Decisions

I thought for sure the Raiders would play with purpose and focus and handle success and prosperity from the win in Baltimore last week against Carolina.

About that…

Instead Andy Dalton became the first 300 passer with three touchdowns in the same game this season. And that speaks volumes about the Raiders inner fortitude. 

I saw nothing positive about the play calling, defense, commitment. Antonio Pierce ripped into his players making “business decisions” and not giving their all. 

Vintage Raiders falling apart.

Or… Deshaun Watson and the Browns come to town. Cleveland is favored after the Raiders debacle against the Panther. Cleveland is 3-11 in their last 14 games as a road favorite. The Browns line is banged up. Watson was sacked eight times last week. I’m grabbing the Raiders as dogs this week. Gulp.

Check out the NFL Week 4 Hub for betting tools, best bets, and more!

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