With two data points of reference from this season, the Pittsburgh Steelers are nearly a double-digit underdog against the Baltimore Ravens in the Wild Card Round of the AFC playoffs. This line has touched double figures and may even remain there or get back to that point at some sportsbooks leading up to kickoff. The Ravens have been priced like a top team all season long and that sentiment has not gone away heading into the postseason. Also, make sure you head over to our Wild Card Weekend NFL Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.

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How To Watch Steelers vs. Ravens

When: Saturday, January 11th at 8 p.m. ET

Where: M&T Bank Stadium in Baltimore, MD

Channel: Amazon Prime Video

Steelers vs. Ravens Odds

Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 8th. Look around for the best prices!

Moneyline: Ravens -485, Steelers +370

Spread: Ravens -9.5 (-112), Steelers +9.5 (-108)

Total: Over 43.5 (-105), Under 43.5 (-115)

Check out our Steelers vs. Ravens matchup page!

Steelers vs. Ravens Analysis

You wouldn’t think we’d see this type of line when the teams split the regular season meetings, but the explanation is really simple. First off, the Steelers have dropped four in a row heading into the postseason and the Ravens have rattled off four wins in a row. But, even more than that, Baltimore dominated both regular season meetings in the box score.

The Ravens outgained the Steelers by two yards per play in the first game, but ran 20 fewer plays and had three turnovers. In the second meeting, the Ravens outgained the Steelers by 1.5 yards per play and won 34-17 with a 2-1 edge in the turnover battle. The Ravens also had five red-zone trips to just two for Pittsburgh, something of a reversal from the first game when Pittsburgh had four to Baltimore’s two.

In that first game, the Steelers failed on all four red-zone trips, but Chris Boswell was 4-for-4 on field goals and 6-for-6 overall. Justin Tucker missed two field goals, otherwise the Ravens would have swept the season series and we’d probably be talking about a line that was 10 or higher market-wide.

That being said, it is with noting that Lamar Jackson had 207 passing yards in each game, well below his season average of 245.4. Jackson, who leads the NFL in TD%, yards per attempt, adjusted net yards per attempt, passer rating, QBR, and, in some minds, the race for NFL MVP, was only 31-of-56 in the games against the Steelers.

Jackson hung an 8/0 TD/INT ratio in two games against the abhorrent Bengals defense and we just saw Lou Anarumo lose his coordinator gig. Jackson also had five TD passes in the games against the Giants and Buccaneers. He had 13 carries for 68 yards against the Steelers, once again below his season average of 6.6 yards per rush.

So, you have to ask yourself if the Ravens can cover again – and cover a bigger number – with the potential of Jackson performing below his season averages to that degree. Of course, the Ravens also bottled up Russell Wilson, racking up seven sacks in the two games. Najee Harris also had just 3.9 yards per carry in the two meetings, while Derrick Henry ran for over six yards per pop.

Steelers vs. Ravens Player Props

Lamar Jackson Under 216.5 Passing Yards (-120)

As mentioned, Jackson has been held to 207 passing yards in each game against Pittsburgh thus far. Now he deals with the injury to Zay Flowers, who is likely to miss this week’s game or be severely limited as a best-case scenario. Flowers has been targeted 116 times by Jackson with 74 catches. Rashod Bateman, who is also dinged up, is next with 72 targets.

Flowers accounted for 1,059 yards from Jackson, so 14.3 yards per catch. While Flowers’ likely absence can give the Steelers even more ability to flood the box and challenge the run, Baltimore ran for 344 yards and over six yards per carry in the two regular season meetings, so I think they’re happy with that matchup.

Steelers vs. Ravens Pick

Jackson’s postseason struggles are something I purposely waited until the end to address. He has a 6/6 TD/INT ratio in six career playoff games with a record of 2-4. He’s been sacked 26 times and, while he has six yards per carry, has completed just 57.4% of his tosses. I think the Steelers have proven this season that they can slow him down and have the chance to prove that again with “Playoff Lamar” here. Obviously he hasn’t had a back like Henry, and that may ultimately be the difference, but it still takes time to run the rock and every second that passes should increase the likelihood of Pittsburgh covering in a game that has a low-scoring projection based on the total and the Under money we’ve seen.

Bet: Steelers +9.5 (-108)

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