NFL Week 13 Best Bets, Predictions and Picks from Steve Makinen:
It is this time of year, every NFL season, when I believe the stretch run begins. If you didn’t catch my article this week on NFL Post-Thanksgiving handicapping, I encourage you to do so, as I shared the recent PTD records of all the teams and head coaches in the league and introduced 18 new late-season systems that we will be following the rest of the way in the VSiN NFL Analytics Reports.
I have used some of the evidence from that piece in this week’s Best Bets. It certainly seems like I am ready for a late-season stretch run of my own after Week 12 produced another solid result from this column. In looking back, I have chosen to delete the Bengals pick I made last week, in which I offered it as if Joe Burrow was playing. While the Bengals still covered the Burrow-less line, they didn’t cover the number that was in place when he was thought to be playing. There was confusion, and while I hope you backed my Cincinnati selection and won on Sunday, like I did, I felt it would be unfair to keep it in the win column here.
As such, a 5-3 final record, including another SNF and MNF sweep, has my season mark at 55-53-1 ATS for 50.9%. Perhaps more importantly, I have stretched my weekly winning streak to five straight. We’ll see if the momentum can keep going in Week 13. After poring through all of this week’s Analytics Report, my strength ratings, the DK betting splits, and the matchup data on VSiN.com, I’ve come up with this set of 11 plays for this huge weekend.
Thursday, November 27, 2025
Kansas City (-3.5) at Dallas
What an impressive comeback the Cowboys pulled on the Eagles this past Sunday to keep themselves in the playoff hunt. But the road the next two weeks is treacherous, with a home contest Thursday vs. the Chiefs and another Thursday tilt coming next week at Detroit. Any momentum they have gained could be squelched by next Thursday night. Will it? Well, 80% of the betting handle at public book DraftKings thinks it can. That’s scary to me, as typically this group would flock to the Chiefs in the road chalk role.
Head coach Andy Reid’s team has lost three straight ATS, a true rarity, and has also gone Under the total in six straight games, another unusual occurrence. I would suspect we are finally due for the opposite, perhaps on both. Concerning the three-straight ATS L’s, NFL teams that have lost their last three games ATS, all when favored, are on a 48-17 SU and 38-25-2 ATS (60.3%) run when favored in the next game as well.
Kansas City, off the huge season-swinging win against Indy, also qualifies for two late season systems I unveiled earlier this week: 1) There has been a sweet spot for betting late season road favorites in the non-Sunday late season games recently, and that is in the -3 to -9.5 line range, as these PTD chalk options are 36-6 SU and 27-14 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. And 2) Concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 71-16 SU and 56-29 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. I think we’re looking at a high-scoring KC win here.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Give me the Chiefs (-3.5) to ruin Dallas’ Turkey Day
Cincinnati at Baltimore (-7)
There is a lot of anticipation surrounding the return of QB Joe Burrow, as well as WR Ja’Marr Chase to the Cincinnati lineup, but after yet another “close but no cigar” effort this past week versus New England, I have to question whether or not the wheels have fallen off for this team to the point where it will no longer matter. Especially with a trip to Baltimore on a Thanksgiving Thursday Night Football contest up next. The Bengals have lost eight of their last nine games, and their defense has struggled to the point of making them untrustworthy even as a 7-point dog.
Just this week, I discovered that there have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 54-38 SU and 52-39 ATS (57.1%) since 2015. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 137-77 SU and 107-66 ATS (61.8%), since New Year’s 2017. In addition, regarding Cincy, losing to a non-divisional conference foe at home can prove to be a negative momentum builder for NFL PTD teams, especially when hitting the road as an underdog the next week, as these teams have gone just 16-57 SU and 26-47 ATS (35.6%) in the follow-up game since 2015.
When we consider the TNF aspect of this game, there are a few other angles I like as well: 1) TNF home teams in weeks 9 & later are 47-28 SU & 44-28-3 ATS (61.1%). There seems to be a fundamental edge to playing at home with less rest late in the season. 2) NFL home favorites of 7 points or more are on a 34-3 SU and 22-13-2 ATS (62.9%) run on Thursday games since the start of the 2014 season. And 3) NFL teams playing at home on Thursdays after winning at least their last four games outright have kept the momentum going with an 18-1 SU & 13-5-1 ATS (72.2%) record in their last 19 tries.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: It all adds up to a cozy win and cover for Baltimore (-7)
Friday, November 28, 2025
Chicago at Philadelphia (-7)
It was shown this week at some point that the Bears are the worst DVOA 8-3 team in like 50 years in the NFL. Besides “getting lucky” at the ends of games, they are actually being outdone on a play-by-play basis, unlike any other winning team in recent memory. Does the luck continue here in Philadelphia on Friday? I’d have to say no, especially with the Eagles still stinging from giving away a game in Dallas last Sunday.
As it is, Chicago is 32-48 ATS (40%) in road/neutral games since 2016, as well as 32-45-1 ATS (41.6%) as an underdog since 2019. On the other side, Philadelphia’s head coach Nick Sirianni boasts a 26-3 SU and 20-8 ATS record as a single-digit home favorite since 2021.
My post-Thanksgiving article produced three different systems for this game that show the Bears could be in some trouble: 1) There have been a couple of sweet line range spots in which to bet late regular-season home favorites in post-Thanksgiving action recently. When they’ve been -1 to -2.5, they’ve gone 54-38 SU and 52-39 ATS (57.1%) since 2015. When they’ve been in the -3.5 to -7 line range, they’ve gone 137-77 SU and 107-66 ATS (61.8%), since New Year’s 2017. 2) NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road (Eagles) have gone 51-33 SU and 49-34 ATS (59%) in the follow-up game. And 3) Another winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of 4 games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 32-42 SU and 27-46 ATS (37%) dating back to 2016.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Black Friday could be a rough one for Chicago in Philly (-7)
Sunday, December 1, 2025
Jacksonville (-6.5) at Tennessee
I don’t have the data to back up my claim, but I can’t imagine there have been many situations in the past where a team has won all four games of a four-game homestand ATS, especially without winning any of the games outright. As it is, four-game home stands are extremely rare in the NFL, and Tennessee, having covered all three games so far while losing, now faces this system: NFL teams that have won their last three games ATS with a point margin of +10 or less in that stretch have gone just 17-47 SU and 18-42-4 ATS (30%) in game #4 since ’03.
The Jaguars have put together back-to-back wins to stay in the hunt for both a wildcard and potential divisional hunt, and boast a pretty good resume overall this season. They are 4-1 SU and 3-2 ATS when favored in 2025. The other thing that catches my eye for this game is that my Power Ratings show that Jacksonville should be in excess on an 8-point favorite, meaning this game is actually underpriced by a couple points. On top of that, it isn’t a majorly backed road favorite play either, with only 64$ of bets at DraftKings backing head coach Liam Coen’s team. This feels like it could be a sneaky blowout, with the Titans getting perhaps a little too comfortable at home.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Give me Jacksonville -6.5 at Tennessee
Los Angeles Rams (-10.5) at Carolina
The last three wins by the Rams, all important since they were against NFC playoff contenders, have set up head coach Sean McVay’s team in a spot where they are not only the #1 seed in the conference, but playing as a double-digit road favorite. In general, I try to avoid ever backing 10-point road chalk in the NFL, as the line itself gives too much motivation to the underdog.
In this particular spot, we have a Panthers team that has proven very capable but inconsistent this year, trying to stay in the playoff hunt itself. They have also been a good scoring team at home, sans the last two games. Prior to that, they had averaged 24.9 PPG in their prior 11. Besides the fact that McVay is just 13-15 SU and 9-17 ATS in its last 27 November games, another important aspect of this game is that Carolina will be among the group of teams having the latest bye weeks, this being their pre-bye week game. The Panthers are on a stretch of 9-3 ATS in pre-bye week games, including a win over the Giants last year in London, and are on a 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS streak in home pre-bye week games, scoring 30.8 PPG.
They are also backed by a pair of historically successful systems: 1) Play on home teams in their pre-bye week game when it comes Week 8 or later on the NFL annual schedule. (Record: 77-41-2 ATS since ’10, 65.3%). And 2) Play on home underdogs heading into their bye week. (Record: 38-24-3 ATS since 2015, 61.3%). On top of that, home teams are 8-3-1 ATS in the last 12 of the Rams-Panthers series. Combine all of this stuff, and I don’t see things being easy for the Rams.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll back the Panthers +10.5 as an oversized & dangerous home dog
New Orleans at Miami (-5.5)
When we last left off with Miami a couple of weeks ago, the Dolphins were winning back-to-back games for the first time in 2025. Overall, the demise of this franchise has been a bit overstated, as contrary to popular belief, they have won three of their last four games and are 6-5 ATS overall.
For this particular post-bye week contest, there are a few favorable angles suggesting this stretch of better play might continue. First, Miami is 31-19 ATS (62%) vs. non-conference foes since 2014, as well as 35-21 SU and 34-21 ATS vs. teams with a losing record since 2019. Concerning QB Tua Tagovailoa, this figures to be a good matchup for him as well, since he is 27-11 SU and 25-13 ATS (65.8%) in home games. He is also 12-4 SU and 11-4-1 ATS vs. teams with poor point differentials of <=-4.5 PPG since 2022.
Miami’s recent experience with bye weeks also plays a part, as they are on a 6-2 ATS run in post-bye week games vs. NFC foes since 2003. It won’t hurt that favorites are 5-1 SU and ATS in the NO-MIA series since 1998. Of course, there is just as much anti-New Orleans sentiment to go on in this one, and not surprisingly, some of the worst teams to back late in the season are those that can’t score well and are on the road, as teams averaging less than 19 PPG offensively and playing on the road in PTD games have struggled to a 50-144 SU and 75-116 ATS (39.3%) record since 2015.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Let’s go with Miami -5.5 to keep a potential late surge going
San Francisco (-4.5) at Cleveland
With all due respect to the Browns and QB Shadeur Sanders, as well as the win they just enjoyed on the road for other backers and me of the Week 12 Analytics Report, had they not been matched up with someone as dismal as the current Raiders are, the results could/would have been different. I don’t look back, though. They have won back-to-back games against the spread, and seem to be doing the things that tend to lead to consistent success, namely running the football and playing great defense.
Speaking of teams with good emerging defenses, here they will be a home underdog to a San Francisco team that also won and covered for me last week on MNF, but wouldn’t have done so without a huge defensive effort. QB Brock Purdy was wildly inconsistent that night, but in many cases, a win is a win, and it sure seems like the 49ers are building for an impressive late-season surge.
In terms of this matchup, San Francisco’s head coach Kyle Shanahan puts an impressive trend on the line in that he is 15-3 SU and ATS in his last 18 games vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG. Despite last week’s win, Cleveland still looked like a “poor offensive team.” The Browns are also 5-21 SU and 4-22 ATS when coming off a game having allowed <=14 points since 2014, and head coach Kevin Stefanski is on a 7-21 SU and 6-20 ATS slide when coming off an outright win.
With SF heading into its late bye, we need to also consider playing on any team heading into their bye week when favored on the road/neutral vs. a non-conference foe (Record: 32-8-1 SU and 27-13-1 ATS since 2009, 67.5%). More on that, San Francisco has gone a perfect 6-0 SU and ATS since 1997 as a pre-week road favorite, outscoring opponents 34.7-16.1.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Give me San Francisco to cover the modest -4.5 points
Buffalo (-3.5) at Pittsburgh
It seems that folks across the NFL analysis world have been questioning Buffalo’s legitimacy all season long. Is it warranted? Perhaps, although as their AFC division title hopes continue to erode, it seems that the Bills do tend to respond every time they are doubted. Let’s face it, who wants to be the one going against QB Josh Allen when important games are on the line?
For this one, I find it curious that the Bills are 3.5-point road favorites despite their inconsistent play of late, and despite Pittsburgh’s history of faring well against the league’s better teams under head coach Mike Tomlin. However, it seems that a lot of the normal tendencies with the Steelers are going the other way this year as they don’t seem as tough as usual, and don’t dominate games in typical Steeler fashion.
In situations like this, I tend to lean more on systematic data, and the line setup points me towards a pair of solid angles backing the Bills. First, NFL PTD teams coming off close upset losses (<=10-point margin) on the road have gone 51-33 SU and 49-34 ATS (59%) in the follow-up game. And second, concerning late-season won-lost records, in PTD games where there is only one-win difference between the opponents, and oddsmakers have installed the team with the better record as a favorite of 3 points or more, that favored team is 71-16 SU and 56-29 ATS (65.9%) since 2017. Looking at the recent history of these usual AFC powers, favorites are 6-1 SU and ATS in the last seven Bills-Steelers matchups at Pittsburgh.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: I’ll lay the 3.5 points with the Bills in Pittsburgh
Las Vegas at Los Angeles Chargers (-9.5)
I’ll admit it, I felt the Raiders had the potential to be one of the surprise teams in the league at the outset of the season, as I thought they were going to be a far better offense with the additions of head coach Pete Carroll, QB Geno Smith, and RB Ashton Jeanty. My feelings were heightened even further after they somehow won at New England in the opener. What we have seen since has been a trainwreck, particularly on offense, with Las Vegas yet to hit the 30-point mark this season and averaging just 15 PPG overall. They also score 8.6 PPG fewer than their opponents allow on average, meaning they would be projected for less than 13 here. The matchup also suggests they might struggle to score since Las Vegas is 23-5 Under the total as a divisional road underdog since 2015. The Chargers went into the bye week break off of their worst game of the season on both sides of the ball, losing 35-6 at Jacksonville.
That leads to a couple of huge Under angles: 1) Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after losing in upset fashion before the bye. (Record: 34-18-1 Under since 1992, 65.4%). And 2) Play Under the total in games where a team is coming out of its bye week after yielding 35+ points before the bye. (Record: 24-14-1 Under since 2014, 63.2%). We saw the trend earlier on LV being a divisional road dog, well, as luck would have it, the Chargers are 13-2 Under the total as a divisional home favorite since 2018. One final thing to consider, as this is a rematch of the Week 2 20-9 win for the Chargers, Las Vegas: 15-3 Under in the last 18 road rematches, scoring 15.6 PPG.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Too much info to pass on going Under 41.5 in the LV-LAC clash
Denver (-6.5) at Washington
Had QB Jayden Daniels been set to play on Sunday night this week, I felt like the circumstances were ideal for the public loading up on a nice home underdog play with the Commanders. However, as he is listed as unlikely to play, I think it makes even more sense, as the sentiment will now be totally against head coach Dan Quinn’s team/ I actually feel QB Marcus Mariota is better than the average backup. He also gets us a few more points on the line.
Both of these teams have had a week off to reflect on their starts to their seasons, much different from one another. Denver rides an eight-game winning streak, the last three being somewhat sketchy. They have not been on the road since 11/2. A winning streak killer comes in PTD games when teams on winning streaks of four games or more hit the road and aren’t favored by a big amount (>7 points) or are underdogs. These teams have gone 32-42 SU and 27-46 ATS (37%) dating back to 2016.
The SNF aspect also finds that home underdogs have been competitive on Sunday night football, going 20-26-1 SU and 26-19-2 ATS (57.8%) dating back to 2017. Moreover, the best defensive teams in the league, or those allowing less than 19 PPG, have gone just 18-27-1 SU and 20-26 ATS (43.5%) against worse defenses on SNF since 2019. Head coach Sean Payton’s team is also just 2-8 SU and ATS in its last 10 SNF games.
On the other sideline, with Washington having not won since 10/5, NFL teams that have lost the last five ATS while being outscored by 50 points or more in that stretch are 28-55 SU but 51-31-1 ATS (62.2%) since 2007, and NFL teams that have lost their last four games ATS are 26-27 SU but 32-19-2 ATS (62.7%) in their last 53 games versus non-conference foes. Unfamiliarity should also play a factor, since home teams are 4-1 ATS in the DEN-WAS h2h since 2009
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Give me Washington +6.5 to be more competitive than expected
Monday, December 2, 2025
New York Giants at New England (-7.5)
Last week, I swept the SNF/MNF games with a pair of favorites that seemed primed to continue surges. This week, I feel quite the opposite, with a pair of the league’s best record teams in difficult cover spots. Naturally, most bettors will feel that the team with the league’s best record playing on Monday night should be an automatic bet, but history has shown just the opposite. In fact, laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 50-15 SU but just 25-38-2 ATS (39.7%) since 2012.
Won/lost records have mattered on MNF too, as teams with the better record are 48-42 SU but just 35-53-2 ATS (39.8%) in the last 90 MNF games not matching teams with identical records. Finally, in MNF games pitting non-conference opponents (AFC vs. NFC), home teams are 30-31 SU but 19-40-2 ATS (32.2%) in the last 61.
From a price standpoint, there has been a dangerous line range for backing bigger home favorites in the non-Sunday late-season games recently, as home favorites of more than a TD (-7.5 or more) have gone 27-6 SU but just 11-21 ATS (34.4%) since 2015. With the host Patriots being the only 10-2 team in the league now, we must also acknowledge that the truly elite teams have actually been the most unreliable for bettors to back, as teams boasting an 83% or better won-lost record are 61-42 SU but 39-62 ATS (38.6%) in PTD games since 2015.
The Giants’ current losing streak (six games) also factors in since NFL teams playing on Monday Night Football after losing at least their last five games outright have gone 7-14 SU but 16-5 ATS (76.2%) in their last 21 tries. With QB Jaxson Dart expected to return to lead the feisty Giants again, you should know that rookie quarterbacks have fared reasonably well under the spotlight of Monday night games lately, going 21-6-1 ATS (77.8%) in their last 28.
NFL Week 13 Best Bet: Give me the Giants +7.5 on MNF this week
For more NFL Week 13 best bets, visit the NFL Week 13 betting hub, exclusively on VSiN.
