Tuley’s Takes – NFL Week 3:
Week 2 of the NFL season was a roller-coaster ride here in the Tuley’s Takes office last weekend. I started off with a loss on the Lions +4.5 at the Bills in the Thursday Night Football game, bounced back nicely in the early Sunday slate with wins on the Vikings +4.5 at the Bears, Browns +8.5 at the Buccaneers and Saints +8.5 at the Ravens (all outright winners!!!), but then gave it all back with the Dolphins +13.5 at the 49ers in the afternoon slate and the Giants +7 at the Rams on Monday Night Football to stand at 5-7 ATS on the year.
For those still playing along with Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio (which I’ve written the past two weeks that I’m not betting as much as it’s harder to find low vig on 2-team, 6-point teasers but still some attractive spots), our recommendations in Week 2 only went 3-2, which doesn’t cut it. But I’ll still keep listing those where they’re still playable, but it comes with the caveat to not only shop for the best lines to tease but also the lowest vig.
Overall, it’s been a minefield for underdog bettors as favorites are 23-9 SU and 17-13-2 ATS (56.7%) through two weeks. Home teams are 17-14 SU (with one neutral-site game that’s not included, the 49ers-Rams Week 1 game in Australia), but road teams lead 16-13-2 ATS (55.2%), which continues what we’ve been writing for years that home-field advantage isn’t as strong since the pandemic.
For those curious about totals, Unders took a 16-15-1 lead after Overs led 9-6-1 in Week 1, but Unders reversed the trend by going 10-6 in Week 2.
For the uninitiated here at Tuley’s Takes, I give my “take” on each game from my “dog or pass” point of view, trying to determine if the underdog is getting enough points to make them a play – or if I recommend passing on the game. I’ll also give my patent-pending Tuley’s Pool Play Percentages for those in contests where you have to pick every game (or just as another helpful handicapping point).
Without further ado, let’s go over the full NFL Week 3 schedule.
Atlanta at Green Bay -4.5
After two great Thursday night matchups the last two weeks, we get back to your typical TNF snoozer (though we have some nice matchups again in October and later in the season). This line has been all over the place, as it was Packers -6 on the advance line last week (which I’ve always loved to use to gauge how the market views these matchups before and after the games in between), then re-opened Packers -7 after they beat – but didn’t cover – in a 20-17 OT win at the Jets on Sunday while the Falcons were blown out 34-3 by the Panthers. That line move made sense, and then it was announced QB Michael Penix Jr. would start this game, bringing money from some bettors backing him (along with those tailing some Game 3 trends on 0-2 teams that I’m sure you’ve seen/heard) to drop the line to 4.5 as of Wednesday afternoon. I wish I had played Falcons +7, but have to pass with all the value sucked out of the line. I’ll wait for Sunday for my NFL action this week (unless I use the Packers in some Survivor pools).
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Packers 67/33 in rare ATS contests that use TNF and 75/25 in SU pools).
Seattle -7 at Washington
In the top game on the Sunday betting board, we have the Commanders as home underdogs of a touchdown. I usually love me some big home dogs, but they don’t fare as well as they used to. And the Commanders also lost Jayden Daniels, and I’m not thrilled with backing Marcus Mariota against a strong Seattle defense. The Seahawks will probably still be without Sam Darnold, but they won easily with Drew Lock last Sunday in a 31-7 rout on the road in Arizona.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Commanders 55/45 in ATS contests on principle, but Seahawks still at least 80/20 in SU pools).
Cincinnati -3.5 at Pittsburgh
I was high on the Bengals this offseason (and gave out at +155 to win the AFC North in VSiN’s NFL Betting Guide 2.0), so I’m not as surprised as others about their uncharacteristic 2-0 start. However, I’m not so sure they should be favored by more than a field goal on the road in this divisional rivalry. The advance line was Bengals -2.5 last week, and I guess it makes sense it reopened -3 after they beat the Texans 20-6 and the Steelers lost 20-3 at the Patriots, but I’ll take the bonus key point in a game that could very well come down to a field goal.
Best Bet: Steelers +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Steelers 60/40 in ATS contests, but Bengals still 67/33 in SU pools).
New York Jets at Detroit -6.5
This game is similar to the Thursday night game, as the advance line was Lions -7 (and I didn’t bet the Jets then), but dropped to 6.5 after the Lions lost 41-31 at the Bills last Thursday and the Jets were again competitive before losing to the Packers 20-17 in OT on Sunday. The Jets’ two decent performances were both at home, and now they have to go on the road, so I just can’t take them at less than a TD against a Detroit team that should rebound with the step down in competition.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Lions 55/45 in ATS contests and 75/25 in SU pools).
Tennessee at New York Giants -3
This advance line was Giants -6 before both teams lost in Week 2, but with Jaxson Dart being out for the season with New York and Jameis Winston filling in, the line has dropped to a field goal. The Titans might have been a play for me at a high number, though more as a fade of the Giants, but I have to pass now and spend my time sweating other games on Sunday.
Best Bet: Pass (Pool Play Percentages: Giants 60/40 in all SU & ATS contests).
New England at Jacksonville -2.5/-3
Both teams are 1-1, so even though it’s not a division game, it can be viewed as a pivotal one in the AFC playoff picture, as neither team wants to fall behind in their divisional race or lose a key head-to-head tiebreaker if later battling for a Wild Card berth. The advance line was Jaguars -2, but it has actually gone up to what we call -2.5/-3 (meaning those lines are available at different books but probably charging added juice on the side you want), despite Jacksonville losing 20-13 at Denver and New England beating Pittsburgh 20-3. The right side appears to be the Patriots, but I’m not willing to take them under a field goal and don’t see much value even if getting +3, especially if having to lay extra juice. Let’s start our Tuley’s Teaser Portfolio here to get the Patriots over a touchdown in what should be a tight one-score game.
Best Bet: Patriots +8.5 or +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Patriots 55/45 in ATS contests, but Jaguars still 60/40 in SU pools).
Kansas City -11 at Miami
I passed earlier on the Commanders as home dogs getting a touchdown, but I can’t resist a double-digit home dog, even if it’s the lowly Dolphins, who were never in their 35-13 loss in San Francisco after losing 27-13 to the Raiders in Las Vegas in Week 1. Both losses were by at least two TDs, but I’m going to count on them to play better in their home opener. The Chiefs routed the Broncos 31-10 in their Monday night opener, but their 33-30 OT win against the Colts on Sunday night is more in line with what we expect from the Chiefs, as they usually let teams stick around before pulling out wins. We just need the Chiefs to stay within a TD plus a FG.
Best Bet: Dolphins +11 (Pool Play Percentages: Dolphins 60/40 in ATS contests, but Chiefs still at least 90/10 in SU pools).
Houston -2.5 at Indianapolis
Both teams are 0-2 and in need of a win if they want to compete for the AFC South title. The Texans took a step back from their valiant effort in a 36-31 loss to the Bills in their season opener by getting dominated 20-6 by the Bengals in Week 2 (the Nico Collins injury had a huge impact, as no one stepped up on offense). Meanwhile, the Colts played better in their 33-30 OT loss at the Chiefs on Sunday night than they did in their 41-23 loss to the Ravens in the opener. Even if Collins is back, I still lean to the Colts, though +2.5 is too short, so let’s throw this in our teasers.
Best Bet: Colts +8.5 in teasers, especially with Patriots +8.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Colts 55/45 in ATS contests, but Texans 60/40 in SU pools).
Carolina -3 at Cleveland
The Panthers closed -2.5 at the Falcons on Sunday, but it was still surprising that they romped to a 34-3 win. But, of course, that still wasn’t as surprising as the Browns upsetting the Buccaneers 23-19 as 8.5-point road underdogs (though the torrential downpour and two-hour lightning delay helped). I was proud to be on the Browns there (after losing badly on them in Week 1), but I can’t take this short number even with them at home.
Best Bet: Pass, unless Browns +9 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Browns 55/45 in ATS contests, but Panthers 60/40 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo -7
The Bills are off to a great 2-0 start with impressive wins over the playoff-worthy Texans and Lions, while the Chargers are expected to start 2-0 with “easy” home games against the Cardinals (-9.5) and Raiders (-6.5) but are instead a disappointing 0-2 with identical 26-14 losses, and their schedule is now getting harder. The advance line for this game was Bills -4, so we’re not surprised to see it shoot higher, but not sure it should be a full TD and extra point. I’m tempted to take the Chargers as the move away from home (where they don’t have much of a home-field advantage in L.A. anyway) might bring out a more focused performance. I would feel a lot better if we get the hook, and hopefully we will, with more people jumping on the Bills bandwagon and throwing the Chargers under the bus.
Best Bet: Pass for now, possibly Chargers +7.5 if we get it (Pool Play Percentages: Chargers 55/50 in ATS contests, higher if offered +7.5, but Bills still 75/25 in SU pools).
Minnesota -1.5 at Tampa Bay
Any of my fellow old-timers out there remember when the Buccaneers were part of the NFC Central (aka the Black and Blue Division) from 1977 through 2001 until realignment put them in the NFC South? Just an irrelevant piece of trivia since these haven’t been divisional rivals for a quarter century. Regardless, this is a coin-flip game, as you can see from the spread. The Bucs were also -1.5 on the advance line last week, but favoritism has flipped after the Vikings upset the Bears 9-3 to start the season 2-0, and the Bucs lost to Cleveland 23-19 to start the season 0-2. If the line has stayed with Tampa favored, I’d probably be teasing the Vikings over a TD, but instead let’s do the same with the Bucs, as this should be a one-score game.
Best Bet: Tampa Bay +7.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Buccaneers 55.45 in ATS contests, but Vikings 55/45 in SU pools).
Arizona at San Francisco -8.5
The 49ers have been one of the most impressive teams so far this season with their Week 1 upset of the Rams in Australia (though many blamed LA’s travel plans) and then routed the Dolphins 35-13 (and not having any jet lag issues of their own). The Cardinals upset the Chargers 26-14 in Week 1 but suffered a letdown in a 31-7 home loss to the defending champion Seahawks. I’m reminded again of the quote from my spirit leprechaun Lou Holtz: “You’re never as good as everyone tells you when you win, and you’re never as bad as they say when you lose.” The 49ers aren’t going to keep blowing everyone out, and the Cardinals can bounce back and play more like they did against the Chargers, so I’ll take the divisional dog getting more than a TD.
Best Bet: Cardinals +8.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Cardinals 60/40 in ATS contests, but 49ers still 80/20 in SU pools).
Las Vegas at New Orleans -3
Speaking of teams that can’t possibly continue to succeed at such a high level, the Raiders are a surprising 2-0 after following up their opening win against the Dolphins by beating the Chargers 26-14 in Week 2. And I’d argue that the Saints have played better overall with their 31-30 OT loss in Week 1 at the Lions and their 24-17 upset at Baltimore. For both those reasons, I can’t take the Raiders at such a short number in the Saints’ home opener. However, I will reserve the right to change my mind later in the week if I can get the hook at +3.5 on the betting apps, especially in ATS contests.
Best Bet: Pass for now, maybe Raiders +3.5 if we get it (Pool Play Percentages: Raiders 55/45 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Saints still 67/33 in SU pools).
Baltimore -3/-3.5 vs. Dallas
This line is already at 3.5 for this neutral-site game in Rio de Janeiro (there were rumors of it being moved stateside, but it’s staying there), though we’re officially listing it here at -3/-3.5 as we’re again seeing -120 on the sides most bettors want. After looking like they weren’t missing coach John Harbaugh at all in their 41-23 Week 1 win at the Colts, they regressed in their 24-17 loss to the Saints at home this past Sunday. Meanwhile, the Cowboys bounced back from their 28-20 loss at the Giants in the Week 1 Monday night game by dominating the Commanders 37-20 in Week 2. I don’t think this line should be over a field goal at a neutral site, plus I’m sure there will be more Cowboys fans in the stands, even though there are reports that the Ravens will be well-represented.
Best Bet: Cowboys +3.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Cowboys 60/40 in ATS contests, higher at +3.5, but Ravens still 67/33 in SU pools).
Los Angeles Rams -2.5 at Broncos
Some people are looking at this Sunday nighter as a possible Super Bowl preview. It’s a long way to go for that. Both teams are only 1-1 as they had to bounce back from Week 1 losses (Rams to the 49ers in Australia and the Broncos to the Chiefs on the MNF opener) to win in Week 2 (Broncos beat the Jaguars 20-13 in their home opener while the Rams blew out the Giants 28-6 in their home opener without Puka Nacua). I might consider the Broncos if getting a full field goal, but this line looks pretty solid at 2.5, so we’ll just use it to anchor our teasers on Sunday.
Best Bet: Broncos +8.5 in teasers (Pool Play Percentages: Broncos 55/45 in ATS contests, but Rams 60/40 in SU pools).
Philadelphia -4.5 at Chicago
There’s a lot of uncertainty on the MNF matchup. The advance line was pick ’em, but after the Eagles beat the Titans 24-20 to get to 2-0 and the Bears lost 9-3 to the Vikings to drop to 1-1 (and QB Caleb Williams pulled his right hamstring), the line reopened Eagles -3.5 on Sunday afternoon. Reports on Williams’ injury have been all over the place, and Chicago backup QB Tyson Bagent has a concussion, so Case Keenum might be pressed into duty. That has caused the line to rise to 4.5, which is a “buy sign” for me to fade the move, as I’m confident the Bears’ offense can stay in the game whether it’s Keenum, Bagent, or even Williams if he’s able to play with the extra day to recover. Of course, the line would drop if that’s the case, so that’s why I think the time to take the Bears is ASAP.
Best Bet: Bears +4.5 (Pool Play Percentages: Bears 60/40 in ATS contests, but Eagles still 67/33 in SU pools).
For more NFL Week 3 best bets, visit the NFL Week 3 Hub, exclusively on VSiN.com.
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