The following NFL betting trends are a collection of analytical data, betting systems and strength ratings featured on VSiN and qualified for the NFL games of Week 6. This report is meant to emulate the process that Steve Makinen and other members of the VSiN Analytics team undergo when handicapping each week’s NFL board.

AJ’s Angles

These are the top NFL betting trends and systems for this week’s NFL games, handpicked by VSiN Analyst AJ Makinen.

* NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-33 SU but 34-11-3 ATS (75.6%) in their last 48 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at NYG)

* NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 7-18 SU and 5-20 ATS (20%) in their last 25 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-1.5 at ATL)

* Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-26-1 ATS since 2013, 69%, +29.5 Units, 35.1% ROI, Grade 72)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 vs HOU), LA CHARGERS (+8.5 at KC)

* Teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on a 72-65 SU and 87-44-6 ATS (66.4%) run, assuming they are not bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015 (including 35-11-2 ATS in divisional games).
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7 at IND)

* Thursday Night Football road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday have rebounded incredibly with a 26-24 SU and 32-17-1 ATS (65.3%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 at DEN)

* GREEN BAY is 12-1 Over the total when coming off an upset win since 2021
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-GB (o/u at 53.5)

* Momentum has been huge for rookie QBs, as their teams are 48-41 SU and 53-33-3 ATS (61.6%) when coming off an outright win since 2021.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs PIT)

#1 TOTAL PROJECTION FAVORING OVER according to the MAKINEN EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS: CAR-PHI OVER 40.5 (simulation has total at 47.6)

These are some of the top situational NFL betting trends that have developed with teams in recent years of action:

(109) SEATTLE (3-2) at (110) DENVER (3-2)
* SEATTLE is 37-26-1 ATS (58.7%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* SEATTLE is 26-18-3 ATS (59.1%) vs. non-conference foes since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 at DEN)
* DENVER is 113-76 Under the total (59.8%) since 2015
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-DEN (o/u at 40.5)

(261) HOUSTON (1-4) at (262) JACKSONVILLE (4-1)
* HOUSTON is on 20-60 SU and 29-50 ATS slide vs. elite teams with point differential of >=+4.5 PPG since 2010
Trend Match (FADE): HOUSTON (+2.5 at JAX)
* HOUSTON’s DeMeco Ryans is on 22-7 Under the total surge vs. teams with a winning record
* HOUSTON’s CJ Stroud is 19-13 Under the total in the last 32 games with his team coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-JAX (o/u at 42.5)

(263) NY JETS (2-3) at (264) NEW ENGLAND (3-2)
* NY JETS own ugly 13-55 SU and 22-43-1 ATS record as road underdogs since 2016
* NY JETS are 13-29 ATS (31%) when coming off a SU win since 2017
* NY JETS are 20-40 ATS (33.3%) vs. divisional opponents since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7.5 at NE)

(265) PITTSBURGH (3-2) at (266) TAMPA BAY (1-4)
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 11-16 SU and 7-20 ATS as a single-digit road favorite since 2021
* PITTSBURGH is 29-35 ATS (45.3%) as a favorite since 2018
Trends Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at TB)
* TAMPA BAY is 39-61 ATS (39%) at home since 2014
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is just 6-15 SU and 5-15 ATS when his team plays with extra rest (>7 days) since 2017
Trends Match (FADE): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs PIT)
* PITTSBURGH is 32-11 Under the total as a road favorite since 2014
* PITTSBURGH is 112-82 Under the total (57.7%) since 2015
* PITTSBURGH’s Aaron Rodgers is 24-10 Over the total as a single-digit road favorite since 2015
* TAMPA BAY’s Todd Bowles is 14-11 Over the total vs. teams with a better record since 2017
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 2 PLAYS UNDER in PIT-TB (o/u at 39.5)

(267) BALTIMORE (4-1) at (268) CLEVELAND (3-2)
* BALTIMORE is 50-27-1 ATS (64.9%) in road/neutral games since 2017
* CLEVELAND is 40-47 ATS (46%) at home since 2015
* CLEVELAND is 26-41 ATS (38.8%) vs. divisional opponents since 2015
Trends Match (PLAY): BALTIMORE (-5.5 at CLE)

(269) CHICAGO (3-2) at (270) ATLANTA (2-3)
* CHICAGO is 28-37-1 ATS (43.1%) when coming off a SU loss since 2019
* CHICAGO is 39-44 ATS (47%) in non-divisional conference games since 2015
* CHICAGO is 35-50 ATS (41.2%) in road/neutral games since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-1.5 at ATL)
* ATLANTA is 23-42 ATS (35.4%) at home since 2018
* ATLANTA is on a 13-27 SU and 11-29 ATS skid on normal rest (7 days)
Trends Match (FADE): ATLANTA (+1.5 vs CHI)
* ATLANTA’s Kevin Stefanski is 25-17 Over the total vs. teams with a winning record since 2020
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): CHI-ATL (o/u at 50.5)

(271) TENNESSEE (0-5) at (272) INDIANAPOLIS (2-3)
* TENNESSEE is 22-21 SU and 25-17 ATS when coming off a home loss since 2015
* TENNESSEE is on a 10-47 SU and 16-40-1 ATS skid in Sunday games
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of TENNESSEE (+7 at IND)
* INDIANAPOLIS is 32-17 SU and 34-13 ATS when coming off a double-digit loss since 2011
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Shane Steichen is on a 17-3 SU and 15-5 ATS run vs. poor offensive teams scoring <19 PPG
* INDIANAPOLIS’s Daniel Jones is 18-21 SU but 23-17 ATS with his team coming off an outright loss since 2020
Trends Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs TEN)

(273) CAROLINA (2-2) at (274) PHILADELPHIA (2-3)
* CAROLINA is 26-36 ATS (41.9%) in non-divisional conference games since 2018
* CAROLINA is 17-36 ATS (32.1%) as a favorite since 2016
Trends Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-1.5 at PHI)
* PHILADELPHIA is 18-31 ATS (35.4%) when coming off a SU loss since 2018
Trend Match (FADE): PHILADELPHIA (+1.5 vs CAR)
* PHILADELPHIA’s Nick Sirianni is 16-5 Under the total in the last 21 games when coming off an outright loss
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): CAR-PHI (o/u at 39.5)

(275) NEW ORLEANS (1-4) at (276) NY GIANTS (3-1)
* NEW ORLEANS is 44-26 ATS (62.9%) in road/neutral games since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at NYG)
* NY GIANTS’ John Harbaugh is 16-17-1 SU but 25-9 ATS as an underdog since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY): NY GIANTS (+1.5 vs NO)
* NY GIANTS are 26-12 Under the total as home underdogs since 2020
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on a 14-3 Over the total surge vs. poor teams with point differentials of -4.5 PPG or less
* NY GIANTS’ Jameis Winston is on an 8-1 Over the total streak as a short underdog of less than +3 points
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in NO-NYG (o/u at 45.5)

(277) ARIZONA (1-4) at (278) LA RAMS (2-3)
* ARIZONA is 14-25 ATS (35.9%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* ARIZONA is 37-27 ATS (57.8%) in road/neutral games since 2019
* ARIZONA is 37-29 ATS (56.1%) as an underdog since 2021
Trends Match: 2 PLAYS, 1 FADE of ARIZONA (+12.5 at LAR)
* LA RAMS are 18-9 SU and 18-8 ATS when playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2018
* LA RAMS are 30-17 ATS (63.8%) when coming off SU loss since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-12.5 vs ARI)
* LA RAMS’ Matthew Stafford is 25-12 Over the total with his team playing on short rest (<7 days) since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): ARI-LAR (o/u at 51.5)

(279) BUFFALO (4-1) at (280) LAS VEGAS (3-2)
* BUFFALO is 46-33 ATS (58.2%) in non-divisional conference games since 2017
* BUFFALO is 37-29 ATS (56.1%) in road/neutral games since 2019
Trends Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5.5 at LVR)
* LAS VEGAS is 41-57 ATS (41.8%) when coming off a SU loss since 2015
* LAS VEGAS’ Kirk Cousins is 19-15 SU and 20-12 ATS with his team coming off a road loss since 2015
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of LAS VEGAS (+5.5 vs BUF)
* BUFFALO’s Josh Allen is 40-27 Under the total on the road since 2018
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): BUF-LVR (o/u at 53.5)

(281) LA CHARGERS (0-5) at (282) KANSAS CITY (4-0)
* KANSAS CITY is 24-11 SU but 9-24 ATS when coming off a game of scoring 30+ points since 2020
* KANSAS CITY is 13-23-1 ATS (36.1%) vs. divisional opponents since 2020
* KANSAS CITY’s Patrick Mahomes is 37-2 SU but 15-23-1 ATS (37.8%) in his last 39 games as a favorite of more than 7 points. The average line was -10.7. Team average PF: 27.7
Trends Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs LAC)
* LA CHARGERS are on 36-16 Under the total surge in Sunday games
* LA CHARGERS are on 22-8 Under the total streak when playing on normal rest (7 days)
* KANSAS CITY is 81-41 Under the total as a home favorite since 2010
* KANSAS CITY’s Andy Reid is 36-11 Under the total as a home favorite of 7 points or more since 2011
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)

(283) DALLAS (2-3) at (284) GREEN BAY (3-2)
* DALLAS’s Dak Prescott owns a poor 24-32-1 SU and 19-38 ATS record vs. teams with winning records since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is 19-9 SU and 18-10 ATS when his team is playing with extra rest (>7 days) since 2016
* DALLAS’ Dak Prescott is on 6-15-1 SU and 8-13-1 ATS skid as a single-digit underdog
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 2 FADEs of DALLAS (+1.5 at GB)
* GREEN BAY is 96-24 SU and 74-44 ATS as a home favorite since 2009
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 27-19-1 SU but 17-30 ATS as a single-digit favorite since 2021
Trends Match: 1 PLAY, 1 FADE of GREEN BAY (-1.5 vs DAL)
* GREEN BAY’s Matt Lafleur is 12-1 Over the total when coming off an upset win since 2021
* GREEN BAY’s Jordan Love is on a 19-10 Over the total surge when his team is coming off a win
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-GB (o/u at 53.5)

(285) WASHINGTON (1-3) at (286) SAN FRANCISCO (5-0)
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 7-7 SU and 3-11 ATS in the lat 14 starts following up a game in which his team scored 30+ points
* SAN FRANCISCO’s Brock Purdy is 18-8 SU but 13-13 ATS in the last 26 vs. teams with lesser records
Trends Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 vs WAS)

NFL Extreme Stats Next Game Systems

These systems search for extreme statistical performances in NFL games and detail the results of the follow-up game for these teams.

BIG TIME PERFORMANCES
Teams that scored 45 or more points in their prior game have gone 26-17 SU but 13-30 ATS (30.2%) when favored at home by 3 or more points since 2012.
System Match (FADE): NEW ENGLAND (-7.5 vs NYJ)

CRAZY LOW-SCORING GAMES COMMAND ATTENTION
Teams that scored poorly (<= 10 points) in their previous game loss have been phenomenal as divisional underdogs in the next contest, going 37-66 SU but 66-34-3 ATS (66%) since the start of the 2020 season.
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7 at IND)

CLOSE LOSSES
Teams that lost their last game SU but covered ATS have not been good bets as favorites in their next contest, going just 50-46 SU and 34-62 ATS (35.4%) since the start of the 2019 season.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA vs CAR (+1.5 CURRENTLY)

TURNOVERS ARE KEY HANDICAPPING STATISTIC
NFL teams coming off a game in which they turned the ball over five times or more have continued to flounder, going 22-17 SU but 13-25-1 ATS (34.2%) when favored in the next contest since 2012.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-1.5 at ATL)
NFL teams coming off a game with a -5 turnover differential or worse and then having to play away from home have gone just 7-18 SU and 5-20 ATS (20%) in their last 25 tries.
System Match (FADE): CHICAGO (-1.5 at ATL)

NFL Team Strength Systems

The following handicapping information details betting systems for NFL teams based on various team strength indicators or line scenarios.

NFL Team Strength Betting System #2:
Road favorites facing a great run defense (<= 100 RYAPG) have not been good bets in lower-totaled games (o/u <= 47), going just 80-73 SU but 59-89-5 ATS (39.9%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at TB)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #4:
Teams having a 10% win percentage or higher than their opponent but are playing as home underdogs are right to be priced this way, as they are 15-52 SU and 19-46-2 ATS (29.2%) since the start of the 2017 season.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+1.5 vs NO)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #5:
Having a minimum of four games under their belt for the season, favorites sporting a win percentage that is at least 25% worse than their opponent have a 34-42-2 SU and 26-50-2 ATS (34.2%) record since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at NYG)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #6:
Teams averaging less than 14 PPG at any time are on 72-65 SU and 87-44-6 ATS (66.4%) run, assuming they are not bigger than 8-point underdogs since 2015. (Also 83-54 OVER the total)- Division: 35-11-2 ATS (76.1%)
System Match (PLAY): TENNESSEE (+7 at IND)
System Match (PLAY OVER): TEN-IND (o/u at 44.5)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #7:
Road/neutral teams scoring more than 31 PPG are just 37-48 SU and 31-53 ATS (36.9%) since 2020.
System Match (FADE): BUFFALO (-5.5 at LVR)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #10:
In games matching bad offensive teams (<=19 PPG scored) against bad defensive teams (>=27 PPG Allowed), it isn’t wise to lay points with the bad offense, as they are 62-52 SU but 40-73-1 ATS (35.4%) since 2015.
System Match (FADE): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA vs CAR (+1.5 CURRENTLY)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #13:
Road teams averaging 8.0 or more yards per pass attempt have been dangerous, 154-101 SU and 146-105-4 ATS (58.2%) since 2015.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE (-2.5 at DEN), BALTIMORE (-5.5 at CLE), BUFFALO (-5.5 at LVR)

NFL Team Strength Betting System #14:
Teams playing with a point differential of 7 points or worse on the season as home favorites are 62-60-1 SU and 48-72-3 ATS (40%) since 2016.
System Matches (FADE ALL): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs TEN), GREEN BAY (-1.5 vs DAL)
*WATCH FOR PHILADELPHIA vs CAR (+1.5 CURRENTLY)*

The following trends and systems come from a log of all the Thursday night (TNF), Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night (MNF) games since the start of the 2019 season. Only Thursday night games were included in the TNF study, not the day games played on Thanksgiving. The Sunday night games only included those games played on Sunday night, not all of the games covered by the NBC SNF crew, which also included some Wednesday and Saturday contests. The games analyzed were only regular season games.

THURSDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

– There has been some interesting data regarding the first and second half of the season in terms of Thursday night games. In the first half of the season, or Weeks 1-8, home teams have gone 32-26 SU but 21-35-2 ATS (37.5%) in the last 58. Going back even further, since 2016, TNF home teams in Weeks 9 and later are 49-31 SU and 46-31-3 ATS (59.7%).
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 vs SEA)

·  Home underdogs on TNF have really struggled of late, going 10-24 SU and 15-19 ATS (42.4%) in their last 34, scoring just 16.6 PPG. In terms of totals, 21 of the lsat 32 (65.6%) TNF games featuring a home dog went Under.
System Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 vs SEA)
System Match (FADE): SEA-DEN (o/u at 40.5)

·   There has been a wild trend that has developed over the last 4+ seasons regarding TNF road teams coming off a home loss the prior Sunday, as they have rebounded incredibly with a 26-24 SU and 32-17-1 ATS (65.3%) record.
System Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 at DEN)

TNF Team Trend
Seattle 12-6 SU and 9-7-2 ATS in the last 18
Trend Match (PLAY): SEATTLE (-2.5 at DEN)

SUNDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Home favorites of less than a TD on SNF have historically been solid, going 62-46-2 ATS (57.4%) in their last 110.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 vs DAL)

·  SNF teams coming off of losses have proven not ready for the big time, as they have gone just 17-33 SU and 20-30 ATS (40%) in their last 50 tries against teams off a win. 
System Match (FADE): DALLAS (+1.5 at GB)

·  Momentum has been big for hosts overall, as home teams on SNF coming off a loss in their last games are just 18-27-1 SU and 20-25-1 ATS (44.4%) in their last 46, but those coming off a win are on a current 34-12 SU and 26-20 ATS (56.5%) surge.
System Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 vs DAL)

SNF Team Trends
Green Bay 17-7 Over the total since 2016
Dallas 16-11 Under since 2016
Trends Match: 1 PLAY OVER, 1 PLAY UNDER in DAL-GB (o/u at 53.5)

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL

·  Laying 7 points or more has not been a good strategy on MNF, as favorites of 7 points or more are 52-16 SU but just 27-39-2 ATS (40.9%) since 2012.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 vs WAS)

· In non-divisional conference matchups on MNF, hosts are on a 28-23 SU and 32-19 ATS (62.7%) surge since 2019.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 vs WAS)

· Won/lost records have mattered on MNF, as teams with the better record are 52-45 SU but just 39-56-2 ATS (41.1%) in the last 97 MNF games not matching teams with identical records.
System Match (FADE): SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 vs WAS)

MNF Team Trends
San Francisco 14-7 SU and ATS since 2012
Trend Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 vs WAS)

If you’ve picked up from each of the team trends sections that certain teams are consistently doing well or poorly, or are going Over or Under regularly, you’re right. Here are some overall primetime game trends that you’re going to want to consider:

Good Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Dallas 17-13 ATS in the last 30
Trend Match (SLIGHT PLAY): DALLAS (+1.5 at GB)
Green Bay 20-10-1 SU and 21-9-1 ATS in the last 31
Trend Match (PLAY): GREEN BAY (-1.5 vs DAL)

Bad Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 14-22 SU and 12-22-2 ATS in the last 36
Trend Match (FADE): DENVER (+2.5 vs SEA)
Washington 14-27 SU and 14-26-1 ATS in primetime since 2013
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 at SF)

Under the Total Primetime (TNF, SNF, and MNF) Team Trends
Denver 21-8 Under since 2017
Seattle 12-8 Under in the last 20
Trends Match (PLAY UNDER): SEA-DEN (o/u at 40.5)

NFL Streaks Provide Some Advantages for Bettors

The following betting systems focus on winning and losing streaks. Below are the ones that have qualifying plays for this week’s action.

NFL Streaks Betting System #6: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games ATS and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 15-33 SU but 34-11-3 ATS (75.6%) in their last 48 tries.
System Match (PLAY): NEW ORLEANS (-1.5 at NYG)

NFL Streaks Betting System #7: NFL road teams that have lost their last three games outright and are facing a team with more than a 50% winning percentage better than them are 13-84 SU but 63-33-1 ATS (65.6%) as underdogs of 5.5 points or more since 2006.
System Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8.5 at KC)

NFL Streaks Betting System #16: NFL teams that have won their last four games outright have gone 65-13 SU and 49-29 ATS (62.8%) ATS as non-divisional conference home favorites of -3 or more since 2015.
System Match (PLAY): SAN FRANCISCO (-7.5 vs WAS)

NFL Streaks Betting System #18: Low-scoring (< 22 PPG) NFL teams coming off back-to-back SU wins have been terrible as small underdogs (+3 or less) in the next game, going 13-46-1 SU and 14-43-3 ATS (24.6%) since the start of the 2015 season.
System Match (FADE): NY GIANTS (+1.5 vs NO)
*WATCH FOR GREEN BAY vs DAL (-1.5 CURRENTLY)*

The following systems and trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason.

Pre-bye week system #1:
Play on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 58-26-1 ATS since 2013, 69%, +29.5 Units, 35.1% ROI, Grade 72)
System Matches (PLAY ALL): JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 vs HOU), LA CHARGERS (+8.5 at KC)

Pre-bye week system #2:
Play Under the total on any team heading into their bye week when facing a divisional opponent, assuming the opponent is not in the same situation. (Record: 40-17-2 since 2013, 70.2%, +21.3 Units, 37.4% ROI, Grade 72)
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-JAX (o/u at 42.5), LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)

Pre-bye week system #6
Play on any road team heading into their bye week on Monday Night. (Record: 26-20 SU and 29-15-2 ATS since ’96, 65.9%, +12.5 Units, 28.4% ROI, Grade 65)
System Match (PLAY): WASHINGTON (+7.5 at SF)

Pre-bye week system #9
Play against any teams heading into their bye week and playing as underdogs of more than 7 points (Record: 48-8 SU and 37-18-1 ATS since 2008, 67.3%, +17.2 Units, 31.3% ROI, Grade 67)
System Matches (FADE ALL): LA CHARGERS (+8.5 at KC), WASHINGTON (+7.5 at SF)

Pre-bye week system #10
Play on any teams heading into their BYE week and playing as favorites in an overseas neutral field contest (Record: 19-2-1 SU and 16-6 ATS since 2008, 72.7%, +9.4 Units, 42.7% ROI, Grade 67)
System Match (PLAY): JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 vs HOU)

* Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Buffalo Bills Pre-Bye week game: 10/18 at LAS VEGAS
· Buffalo is on a run of 14-5 Over the total in pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-LVR (o/u at 53.5)
· The Bills are on a 7-3 SU and ATS surge in pre-bye week games vs. AFC foes, averaging 28.7 PPG in those contests
Trend Match (PLAY): BUFFALO (-5.5 at LVR)

Jacksonville Jaguars Pre-Bye week game: 10/18 vs. HOUSTON (in London)
· The Jaguars are 2-4 SU and ATS in their previous six pre-bye week International games
Trend Match (FADE): JACKSONVILLE (-2.5 vs HOU)
· Jacksonville is also on a 4-0 Under the total surge in pre-bye week games overseas, scoring 12.8 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-JAX (o/u at 42.5)

Los Angeles Chargers Pre-Bye week game: 10/18 at KANSAS CITY
· The Chargers are just 2-10 SU and 1-9-2 ATS in their last 12 pre-bye week games
Trend Match (FADE): LA CHARGERS (+8.5 at KC)
· The Chargers are 10-3 Under the total in their last 13 pre-bye week games
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)

Washington Commanders Pre-Bye week game: MON 10/19 at SAN FRANCISCO
· Dating back to 1993, Washington is just 11-24-1 ATS in pre-bye week games overall, including 5-14-1 ATS in road/neutral games
Trend Match (FADE): WASHINGTON (+7.5 at SF)
·   Washington has gone 3-0-1 Under the total in its last four pre-bye week games, scoring just 13 PPG
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-SF (o/u at 50.5)

Post Bye-Week Systems and Trends

The following systems and NFL betting trends are from the long-running article series detailing pre- and post-bye week performance in the NFL. These records are from only in-season bye weeks and do not include playoffs or preseason

Post-bye week system #1:
Play on road favorites coming out of their bye week. (Record: 119-50 SU and 97-68-4 ATS since 1999, 58.8%, +22.2 Units, 13.5% ROI, Grade 63)
System Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-1.5 at PHI)

Post-bye week system #4:
Play Over the total in games involving posted totals of less than 40 with teams coming out of their bye week. (Record: 30-20-2 since 2010, 60%, +8 Units, 16% ROI, Grade 58)
System Match (PLAY OVER): NONE YET BUT WATCH FOR CAR-PHI (O/U AT 40.5 CURRENTLY)

Post-bye week system #6:
Play against road teams coming off their bye week and facing a non-divisional conference opponent. (Record: 26-18 SU and 28-16 ATS since 2019, 63.6%, +10.4 Units, 23.6% ROI, Grade 59)
System Match (FADE): CAROLINA (-1.5 at PHI)

Post-bye week system #7:
Play Under the total with road teams coming off their bye week (Record: 46-26-1 since 2021, 63.9%, +17.4 Units, 24.2% ROI, Grade 60)
System Match (PLAY UNDER): CAR-PHI (o/u at 40.5)

** Please note that the systems above and all of the following trends only include bye week games from the regular season schedule, not playoffs.

Carolina Panthers Post-Bye week game: 10/18 at PHILADELPHIA
· Carolina has gone Over the total in its last five post-bye week games vs. non-divisional NFC foes, allowing 31.2 PPG
– Ten of the last 12 Panthers’ post-bye week games went Over the total
Trends Match (PLAY OVER): CAR-PHI (o/u at 40.5)

Kansas City Chiefs Post-Bye week game: 10/18 vs. LA CHARGERS
· Kansas City is just 3-4 SU and 2-5 ATS in its last seven post-bye week home games
Trend Match (FADE): KANSAS CITY (-8.5 vs LAC)
· The Chiefs are 12-3-1 Under the total in their last 16 post-bye week games overall
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)

These are the top head-to-head series NFL betting trends between teams from recent years’ action:

(109) SEATTLE at (110) DENVER
* Over the total is 7-1 in the last eight of the Seahawks-Broncos set at Denver
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): SEA-DEN (o/u at 40.5)

(261) HOUSTON at (262) JACKSONVILLE
* Under the total is 6-2 in the Texans-Jaguars AFC South rivalry the last four seasons
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): HOU-JAX (o/u at 42.5)

(263) NY JETS at (264) NEW ENGLAND
* NEW ENGLAND is on runs of 21-3 SU and 9-2 ATS in matchups with NYJ
Trend Match (PLAY): NEW ENGLAND (-7.5 vs NYJ)

(265) PITTSBURGH at (266) TAMPA BAY
* PITTSBURGH is 6-1 SU and ATS in their last seven meetings with non-conference foe Tampa Bay
Trend Match (PLAY): PITTSBURGH (-2.5 at TB)

(267) BALTIMORE at (268) CLEVELAND
* Over the total has converted in the last five games between Baltimore and Cleveland
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BAL-CLE (o/u at 42.5)

(269) CHICAGO at (270) ATLANTA
* CHICAGO is 4-2 SU and 5-1 ATS in their last six contests with Atlanta
Trend Match (PLAY): CHICAGO (-2.5 at ATL)

(271) TENNESSEE at (272) INDIANAPOLIS
* INDIANAPOLIS has won and covered their last six games versus divisional rival Tennessee
Trend Match (PLAY): INDIANAPOLIS (-7 vs TEN)

(273) CAROLINA at (274) PHILADELPHIA
* Road teams are 3-1 SU and 4-0 ATS in the CAR-PHI series since 2017
Trend Match (PLAY): CAROLINA (-1.5 at PHI)

(275) NEW ORLEANS at (276) NY GIANTS
* Under the total is 8-1-1 in the last 10 of the Saints-Giants series at New York
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): NO-NYG (o/u at 45.5)

(277) ARIZONA at (278) LA RAMS
* LA RAMS are 16-3 SU and 15-4 ATS in their last 19 meetings with Arizona
Trend Match (PLAY): LA RAMS (-12.5 vs ARI)

(279) BUFFALO at (280) LAS VEGAS
* Over the total is 7-0-1 in the Bills-Raiders set since 2005
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): BUF-LVR (o/u at 53.5)

(281) LA CHARGERS at (282) KANSAS CITY
* LA CHARGERS are 4-8 SU but 8-3-1 ATS in their last 12 matchups with divisional foe Kansas City
Trend Match (PLAY): LA CHARGERS (+8.5 at KC)
* Under the total is 5-0 in their last five games at Arrowhead Stadium as well
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): LAC-KC (o/u at 42.5)

(283) DALLAS at (284) GREEN BAY
* Underdogs are on a 6-0-1 SU and 7-0 ATS surge in the Cowboys-Packers set
Trend Match (PLAY): DALLAS (+1.5 at GB)
* Over the total has converted in the last six overall meetings as well
Trend Match (PLAY OVER): DAL-GB (o/u at 53.5)

(285) WASHINGTON at (286) SAN FRANCISCO
* Under the total is 6-2 in the last eight of the WAS-SF series
Trend Match (PLAY UNDER): WAS-SF (o/u at 50.5)

NFL Rookie/Retread Coaching Systems

This material is from the VSiN piece entitled Analyzing the New NFL Head Coaches for 2026, detailing systems that apply to rookie coaches Mike LaFleur (Arizona), Jesse Minter (Baltimore), Joe Brady (Buffalo), Todd Monken (Cleveland), Klint Kubiak (Las Vegas), and Jeff Hafley (Miami), as well as retread coaches Kevin Stefanski (Atlanta), John Harbaugh (NY Giants), Mike McCarthy (Pittsburgh), and Robert Saleh (Tennessee).

Rookie Coach Systems

(Games this week: BAL(-5.5)-CLE(+5.5), ARI(+12.5)-LAR, BUF(-5.5)-LVR(+5.5))

–  Rookie head coaches have been far more proficient at covering point spreads on the road over the last decade. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 173-192-10 ATS (47.4%). Road/Neutral games – 199-179-7 ATS (52.6%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): CLEVELAND, LAS VEGAS

–  Rookie head coaches have also struggled in the large underdog role, going 49-172-1 SU (22.2%) and 107-112-3 ATS (48.9%) when catching 6 points or more since 2016.
System Match (SLIGHT FADE): ARIZONA

–  Among the key challenges new head coaches face is stringing wins together and keeping the team galvanized after losses. Rookie head coaches have been better at the latter. When coming off of losses, rookie head coaches own a record of 104-115-2 ATS (47.5%) since December 2020. After wins, they’ve done reasonably worse in that same time frame, 75-88-6 ATS (46%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): BALTIMORE, BUFFALO

Retread Coach Systems

(Games this week: TEN(+7)-IND, CHI-ATL(+2.5), PIT(-2.5)-TB, NO-NYG(+1.5))

–  Unlike the rookie head coaches, retread head coaches more proficient at covering point spreads at home since 2020. Here is the breakdown: Home games – 66-56 ATS (54.1%). Road/Neutral games – 61-65 ATS (48.4%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): ATLANTA, NY GIANTS

–  Retread head coaches have been brutal bets as favorites but respectable in the underdog role in their first seasons with a new franchise. As favorites since 2015, they’ve gone 108-72 SU but just 72-97-11 ATS, for 42.6%! As dogs (or pick em), 90-188-1 SU and 139-134-6 ATS (50.9%).
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

–  The ATS results by game type are similar for the Division (49.2%) and Conference (47.3%) scenarios for re-trend coaches in terms of opponents. However, in non-conference games, they have really struggled, going 40-58 ATS (40.8%) over the last decade, including 22-38 ATS (36.7%) over the last four seasons.
System Match (FADE): PITTSBURGH

–  Retread head coaches have shown a tendency to start very slow at their new franchises and finish their first seasons quite successfully when it comes to covering point spreads. Since 2016, in games #1-#8 of their first seasons, they’ve combined to go 73-109 ATS (40.1%), while in weeks #9 and later, they’ve gone 97-86 ATS (53%).
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, ATLANTA, PITTSBURGH, NY GIANTS

–  There seems to be a noteworthy trend of momentum that comes with these re-tread head coaches. Since 2015, when coming off a win or tie, these coaches have posted a respectable 93-85 ATS (52.2%) record in their first seasons, including 43-34 ATS (55.8%) since mid-2022. When coming off a loss, the record has been an ugly 150-184 ATS (44.9%) in that same time span.
System Matches (FADE ALL): TENNESSEE, ATLANTA

NFL Rookie Quarterback Systems

These systems take into account rookie quarterback records in their first seasons. They include game logs of any rookie who started seven or more games in that first season. The lone starter this week is Jalon Daniels (Tampa Bay).

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #1 – Rookie quarterbacks are running hot the last four years
·  Earlier I indicated winning percentages of 40.7% straight up and 51.2% ATS for rookie quarterbacks since 2006. The results of the last four seasons are much better. In fact, the 16 rookie QBs over the last four seasons have put together a collective record of 83-107 SU (43.7%) and 104-79-7 ATS (56.8%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs PIT)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #10 – By type of opponent, non-conference matchups have been solid for rookie starting quarterbacks
–  Since 2022, rookie QBs are 24-25 SU and 28-18-3 ATS (60.9%) versus non-conference foes.
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs PIT)

NFL Rookie Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #11 – Wins have been huge momentum builders for rookie QBs
· Since 2021, or in their last 89 starts with their teams coming off outright wins, rookie QBs have thrived, going 48-41 SU and 53-33-3 ATS (61.6%).
System Match (PLAY): TAMPA BAY (+2.5 vs PIT)

NFL Veteran Quarterback Leading New Team Systems

These systems take into account veteran quarterback records in their first season with a new team. They include game logs different veteran QBs since 2004 who have played at least eight years in the NFL and started extensively on a previous team. This week, there are two different QBs finding themselves in a new place: Kirk Cousins (Las Vegas) and Geno Smith (NY Jets).

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #2 – Veteran quarterbacks are best for their new teams in the month of October
· I just showed how these veteran QBs in new places struggle a bit out of the gate. Well, these QBs have rebounded nicely in the month of October, going 49-45 SU and 49-42-3 ATS (53.8%) since 2009.
System Matches (SLIGHT PLAY ALL): NY JETS (+7.5 at NE), LAS VEGAS (+5.5 vs BUF)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #5 – Veteran quarterbacks are trending extremely negatively on the road
· The results since 2021 of veteran quarterbacks playing with their new teams on the road have been brutal, as they are just 32-57 SU and 36-52-1 ATS (40.9%).
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7.5 at NE)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #6 – By type of opponent, non-divisional conference matchups have been best for veteran starting quarterbacks in their first season with new teams
· Since 2005, veteran QBs in their first season with new teams have fared well against non-divisional conference opponents, going 95-81 SU and 97-77-2 ATS (55.7%).
System Match (PLAY): LAS VEGAS (+5.5 vs BUF)

NFL Veteran Quarterbacks Stats Betting System #8 –Veteran QB’s have shown an inability to strong win streaks together recently
·  In their last 74 starts with their new teams coming off outright victories, new incoming veteran QBs have gone just 37-37 SU and 32-41-1 ATS (43.8%). This trend dates back to 2021.
System Match (FADE): NY JETS (+7.5 at NE)

Strategies Using NFL DraftKings Betting Splits Data

One of the most touted features on the VSiN.com website, and a feature that we believe to be a fantastic resource for bettors, is the betting splits pages. These are the pages that we have built utilizing the data that DraftKings so graciously provides to us, detailing the breakdowns of the money and ticket splits for point spreads, money lines, and totals. 

In an article published in the 2026 VSiN NFL Betting Guide, Steve Makinen outlined 12 different systematic strategies for successfully using the DK Betting Splits Data that developed in the last three seasons. Here are the systems and qualifying plays for this week’s games as of Wednesday at 3:45 p.m. ET. These can and will change, so continue to track and qualify the systems up until kickoff for best usage.

Here is a quick tabulation of how DK bettors performed in the 2025 season:

– Majority handle on point spreads: 141-138 ATS (50.5%)
– Majority number of bets on point spreads: 133-145 ATS (47.8%)
– Majority handle on totals: 143-135 (51.4%)
– Majority number of bets on totals: 139-142 (49.5%)

The most interesting observation from last year’s bettors’ performances in the categories is that the majority handle groups were plus-.500, while the majority number of bets groups were sub-.500. Many pro bettors believe that handle represents a slightly sharper opinion, while number of bets measures the public masses and thus is perhaps less sharp.

NFL DK Betting Splits system #1: Over the past two seasons, when more than 68% of the handle has been on a road side of an ATS wager, this majority group boasts a 73-51 ATS (58.9%) record for +16.9 units and an ROI of +13.6%!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, BALTIMORE

NFL DK Betting Splits system #2: In NFL divisional games since the start of the 2022 season, DK majority handle bettors have been awful, as this majority group is just 222-266 ATS (45.5%) for -70.6 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NEW ENGLAND, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS, KANSAS CITY

NFL DK Betting Splits system #3: Similar to #2 above, in that same time span, when the majority number of bets staked its side in an NFL divisional game, this majority group is just 221-270 ATS (45%) for -76.0 units.
System Matches (FADE ALL): NY JETS, BALTIMORE, INDIANAPOLIS, LA RAMS, LA CHARGERS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #4: In NFL non-conference games since the start of the 2023 season, DK majority handle groups have been quite sharp, going 132-111 ATS (54.3%).
System Matches (PLAY ALL): SEATTLE, PITTSBURGH

NFL DK Betting Splits system #5: Since the start of the 2023 season, when the majority number of bets has backed a team in non-divisional conference tilts with smaller lines (6.5 points favorites or less), these groups have produced an outstanding 144-119 ATS (54.8%) record for +13.1 units.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): NY GIANTS, PHILADELPHIA, ATLANTA, BUFFALO, DALLAS

NFL DK Betting Splits system #7: When the majority handle has backed a team in an ATS wager in the higher-profile, non-Sunday afternoon games over the last three seasons, this majority group is just 140-162 ATS (46.4%). This set of games includes all the Wednesday, Thursday, Saturday, Sunday night (SNF), and Monday night contests.
System Matches (FADE ALL): SEATTLE, GREEN BAY, WASHINGTON

NFL DK Betting Splits system #8: Number of bets majority groups have been very sharp judging games when there is an exact one-game win difference between two teams in a matchup. The teams they have gotten behind boast an amazing 154-118 ATS (56.6%) record for +24.2 units over the last three seasons. The highlight of the one-win separation games has been when bettors back the road team, as these majority groups have gone 87-61 ATS for 58.8% and +19.9 units of profit.
System Matches (PLAY ALL): BALTIMORE, ATLANTA, NEW ENGLAND, LA RAMS, BUFFALO, DALLAS

Alternatively, when there is a difference of two or more wins in the standings, these majority number of bets groups have struggled to a 188-209 ATS (47.4%) mark.
System Matches (FADE ALL): JACKSONVILLE, NY GIANTS, PITTSBURGH, INDIANAPOLIS, LA CHARGERS, SAN FRANCISCO

DK Betting Splits system #9: The average NFL total in 2023 was 43.0. Over the last two years, it ballooned back up to 44.8. In games where the totals reached 46.5 or higher and oddsmakers thus expected them to be a little more explosive, majority number of bettors have gauged these games incredibly well the last three years, going 173-132 ATS (56.7%)!
System Matches (PLAY ALL): OVER – CHI-ATL, ARI-LAR, BUF-LVR, DAL-GB, WAS-SF

DK Betting Splits system #10: When 56% or more of the number of bets has been on the Under in an NFL game total over the last three seasons, this majority group has been quite sharp, 66-57 ATS (53.7%). This number for a “supermajority” in the NFL is quite low, evidence of how rarely the betting public bets the low side of a total.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL): HOU-JAX, TEN-IND, PIT-TB, LAC-KC

DK Betting Splits system #11: The magic mark for super majority on handle for betting Overs was 74% or higher, and this group performed miserably in 2023 and 2024 with a record of 84-107 (43.9%) for -33.7 units (13-14 for -2.4 units in 2026). To me, this has been a long-standing belief, but when the Over looks too obvious, it usually loses.
System Matches (PLAY UNDER ALL INSTEAD): NYJ-NE, NO-NYG, CHI-ATL, BUF-LVR, DAL-GB

This Week’s NFL Strength Ratings

The following are taken from today’s MAKINEN DAILY RATINGS page under the NFL tab on VSiN.com. Listed by team, current line, and difference between rating and current line (in parentheses).

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. NY GIANTS +1.5 (+4.9)
2. PHILADELPHIA +1.5 (+2.7)
3. DENVER +2.5 (+2.0)
4. ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.4)
5. DALLAS +1.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen POWER RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 (+2.8)
2. BALTIMORE -5.5 (+1.8)
3. INDIANAPOLIS -7 (+1.4)
4(tie). JACKSONVILLE -2.5 (+0.6)
KANSAS CITY -8.5 (+0.6)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. HOUSTON +2.5 (+2.5)
2. NY GIANTS +1.5 (+1.5)
3. DALLAS +1.5 (+1.3)
4. DENVER +2.5 (+0.9)
5. LAS VEGAS +5.5 (+0.6)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1(tie). CHICAGO -1.5 (+1.9)
CAROLINA -1.5 (+1.9)
3. SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 (+0.3)
4. PITTSBURGH -2.5 (+0.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. CAR-PHI OVER 40.5 (+7.1)
2. BAL-CLE OVER 42.5 (+2.1)
3. WAS-SF OVER 50.5 (+2.0)
4. SEA-DEN OVER 40.5 (+1.9)
5. PIT-TB OVER 39.5 (+1.2)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen EFFECTIVE STRENGTH RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. ARI-LAR UNDER 51.5 (-2.0)
2. NYJ-NE UNDER 43.5 (-1.8)
3. DAL-GB UNDER 53.5 (-1.4)
4. BUF-LVR UNDER 53.5 (-0.9)
5. HOU-JAX UNDER 42.5 (-0.3)

This week’s Top 5 UNDERPRICED UNDERDOGS according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. DALLAS +1.5 (+2.5)
2. TENNESSEE +7 (+2.4)
3. DENVER +2.5 (+2.3)
4(tie). NY JETS +7.5 (+1.5)
ATLANTA +1.5 (+1.5)

This week’s UNDERPRICED FAVORITES according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. BALTIMORE -5.5 (+2.9)
2. SAN FRANCISCO -7.5 (+1.2)
3. JACKSONVILLE -2.5 (+0.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING OVER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. SEA-DEN OVER 40.5 (+4.6)
2. LAC-KC OVER 42.5 (+2.4)
3. CAR-PHI OVER 40.5 (+2.3)
4. BUF-LVR OVER 53.5 (+1.6)
5. WAS-SF OVER 50.5 (+1.1)

This week’s Top 5 BIGGEST TOTAL PROJECTIONS FAVORING UNDER according to the Makinen BETTORS RATINGS projections:
Ratings Matches: 1. TEN-IND UNDER 44.5 (-3.4)
2. NYJ-NE UNDER 43.5 (-3.3)
3. NO-NYG UNDER 45.5 (-2.5)
4. DAL-GB UNDER 53.5 (-2.2)
5. ARI-LAR UNDER 51.5 (-1.7)

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