Welcome to Week 7 of the NFL season. For Sunday NFL analysis and betting updates be sure to join Michael Lombardi, Patrick Meagher and myself from 10 a.m.-noon on The Lombardi Line. We'll be dissecting all the big matchups and breaking down late sharp action leading up to gametime.
Until then, let's discuss four NFL matchups receiving notable sharp action from respected bettors today.
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1 p.m. ET: Dallas Cowboys (2-4) at Washington Football Team (1-5)
The Cowboys were completely embarrassed last week, falling to the Cardinals 38-10 as 1-point home favorites on Monday Night. Dallas hasn't covered a single game this season. The only other 0-6 ATS team in the NFL is the Jets. On the flip side, Washington is mired in a 5-game losing skid but was able to cover last week, losing to the Giants 20-19 as 1.5-point dogs. This line opened with Dallas listed as a 3-point road favorite. We've seen a massive wave of sharp action hit Washington and it's been non-stop all week, pushing Washington from 3 to -1. Some shops are even at -1.5. This type of "dog to favorite" line move is very real and almost exclusively sharp driven, especially with the fact that two-thirds of bets are backing Dallas. In other words, it's a true reverse line move. Washington could have an edge with their ferocious front seven facing a porous and injury riddled Dallas offensive line. Washington also has a rest advantage as Dallas played on Monday night. We've seen pro money hit the under, dropping the total from 47.5 to 45.
1 p.m. ET: Detroit Lions (2-3) at Atlanta Falcons (1-5)
The Lions returned from their bye week with a dominant 34-16 win over the Jags last Sunday, easily covering as 3-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Falcons got a bounce from their new head coach, upsetting the Vikings 40-23 in Week 6, winning straight up as 3.5-point road dogs. This line opened with Atlanta listed as a 3-point home favorite. Spread bets are split down the middle and the public doesn't know who to back. However, we've seen pro money get down on the Lions at the key number of 3, dropping this line down to 2. The Lions match several profitable systems. Short road dogs 6 or less have gone 24-12 ATS (67%) this season. Road teams with a line move in their favor have gone 29-16 ATS (64%) this season.
1 p.m. ET: Carolina Panthers (3-3) at New Orleans Saints (3-2)
The Panthers saw their three-game winning streak come to an end last week when they fell to the Bears 23-16, losing straight up as 2-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Saints are coming off a bye week and have won two straight, most recently beating the Chargers 30-27 but failing to cover as 7-point favorites. This line opened with the Saints listed as 7.5-point home favorites. The public is leaning on New Orleans at home with extra rest. However, this line has dipped from Saints -7.5 to -6.5. This indicates sharp reverse line movement on the Panthers, with pros grabbing the points, not laying them. Carolina has value as a road divisional dog in a buy-low spot off a loss. Road teams in general have covered 55% of the time this season due to the lack of fans in the stands and decreased home field advantage. Also, Craig Wrolstad is the lead official and he historically favors road teams (57.4% ATS). Teddy Bridgewater is 20-5 ATS (80%) as a dog in his career.
1 p.m. ET: Pittsburgh Steelers (5-0) at Tennessee Titans (5-0)
This showdown between two of the NFL's three undefeated teams is the marquee matchup of the early Sunday slate. The Steelers are coming off a 38-7 drubbing of the Browns last week, easily covering as 3-point home favorites. Pittsburgh is 62 in point differential this season, the best in the NFL. The Titans have been equally impressive, overcoming a COVID scare and not missing a beat. Tennessee just beat the Texans 42-36, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. This line opened with Pittsburgh listed as roughly a 2.5-point road favorite (some shops opened closed to Steelers -1.5). The public is backing the streaking Steelers. However, despite two-thirds of bets taking Pittsburgh, this line has flipped to Titans -1.5. This signals heavy pro money fading the trendy dog and siding with the contrarian favorite Titans.
More Week 7 Line Moves
Browns-Bengals Under 51.5 to 50
Jets 13 to 10 vs Bills
Broncos 9.5 to 7.5 vs Chiefs
