SNF Vikings vs. Broncos Week 11 odds and predictions
Every week, VSiN will be doing an in-depth dive on the week’s Sunday Night Football game. In Week 11, that game features the Denver Broncos hosting the Minnesota Vikings at Empower Field at Mile High in Denver, Colorado. The Vikings have won five games in a row, with the most recent one coming over the New Orleans Saints. Meanwhile, the Broncos won their third game in a row with a win over the Buffalo Bills last week. Both teams have new energy and are starting to look like playoff hopefuls. With that out of the way, keep reading for our Vikings vs. Broncos preview, picks and player props.
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How To Watch Vikings vs. Broncos
Date: Sunday, November 19
Time: 8:20 p.m. ET
Channel: NBC
Vikings vs. Broncos Spread
While you might not realize it, these are two of the hottest teams in football. Minnesota enters this one on a five-game winning streak, and the team covered in all five of those victories. Meanwhile, Denver comes into this game on a three-game winning streak, with the Broncos also covering in all of their wins. However, it’s Denver that has been a bit more impressive lately, as the team is coming off wins over the Kansas City Chiefs and the Bills. And they’re now playing at home with a chance to get back to the .500 mark, which would put them back in the mix for a spot in the playoffs.
It’s hard not to see some value when looking at the Broncos in this game, and a lot of that has to do with the defense. Denver was miserable on that side of the ball at the start of the year, but the team has allowed a total of 48 points over the last three games. The Broncos also held two talented teams in check over these last few weeks, and they now get a crack at a Vikings team that is starting Josh Dobbs at quarterback. Dobbs has been a great story this season, but he still doesn’t know the Minnesota offense very well. And the Vikings don’t have much of a running game, so the Broncos will be able to play things safe when it comes to defending the pass.
I also trust the Denver offense to move the ball against this Minnesota defense. The Broncos played a very conservative game against the Bills last week, but they now have Javonte Williams looking great in the running game. And that opens everything up for Sean Payton when it comes to calling plays. Russell Wilson obviously isn’t what he was with the Seattle Seahawks, but he’s capable of making throws and he hasn’t been making mistakes. So, I think we’ll see a much improved version of the Denver offense moving forward. And that should start with this home game against an average Minnesota defense.
I simply view the Broncos as the better team offensively, and I don’t think they’re playing much worse defensively. And Denver is not an easy place to play, which should make things tough on a Minnesota team that has been patched together in recent weeks.
Vikings vs. Broncos Total
This total seems low considering what we know about these two teams. While I trust the Broncos to get some key stops in this game, it’s still a group that is last in the league in Defensive DVOA. And the Vikings have scored at least 27 points in each of the last two weeks. So, it’s hard to envision Minnesota just completely failing to put points on the board in this game — especially with a mobile quarterback. Meanwhile, Denver has put up 24 points in back-to-back games, but the team feels due for a big performance soon. With Williams cooking out of the backfield, I think it’s reasonable to expect a blow up from the Broncos this week.
The Over is also 5-2 in the games that the Vikings have played as road underdogs this season. And it’s also 3-2 when the Broncos have been favored this year.
Vikings vs. Broncos Player Props
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Courtland Sutton Over 53.5 Receiving Yards
Sutton is due for a regression when it comes to his touchdown numbers, as he already has seven touchdowns this season. That’s a career-high for the 28-year-old wideout, and he managed to achieve that in nine games. However, I also think Sutton is due for some positive regression when it comes to his yardage totals. He’s only averaging 10.6 yards per catch this season, which is the lowest mark of his NFL career. With that in mind, I’m expecting some big games out of the receiver in the yard department down the stretch, especially with his role in the offense. Last week, Sutton was targeted 11 times against the Bills. That’s the second time that has happened this season. If he continues to see this many looks, it’s only a matter of time before he breaks away for some additional yardage. Sutton is also a better downfield threat than we’ve seen this season, so don’t be surprised if he and Wilson start connecting a bit more on longer passes. I think that starts this week.
Vikings vs. Broncos Prediction
This is a game that I think should really go the home team’s way. The Broncos offense should enjoy this matchup after some difficult spots on the schedule, and I don’t see Dobbs working his magic in a road game against this improving Denver defense. I’m playing this as one of my Week 11 best bets.
Bet: Broncos -2.5
Head to our Pro Picks page to see how VSiN analysts are betting Vikings vs. Broncos!
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