T Shoe Index NFL picks for the Super Bowl

I love working remotely, but it’s weeks like these that make me jealous of my Vegas-stationed VSiN co-workers, as Sin City is set to host the Super Bowl this week and the myriad of partying that goes along with it. As it turns out, there’s also going to be a football game played Sunday, so I should probably let you know where my T Shoe Index has these teams rated and how the model sees this game playing out. The 49ers spent plenty of time atop the TSI ratings this year before Baltimore went nuclear late in the season and overtook them as the #1 team, while Kansas City has been a top 5-ish team most of the year with what TSI graded as a top 3 defense pretty much all year long. Despite having Patrick Mahomes, funnily enough, the Chiefs’ offensive rating is what held them back from being in contention for the #1 spot. 

In terms of matchup, this iteration of the Super Bowl will feature the 49ers’ #3 offense against the #3-rated defense of the Chiefs. On the other side, the Chiefs’ offense is “just” 13th and taking on the #2 49ers’ defense. Obviously, a Patrick Mahomes herculean effort is not out of the realm of possibility, but based on the season-long data, I have to trust the team that’s been consistently taking care of business on both sides of the ball, and that team is San Francisco in this game. TSI projects a 24-20 San Francisco win, which is a slight lean to the 49ers and the under in this game.


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Keep an eye on the NFL betting odds, NFL betting splits and also give the Vegas NFL odds a look to see where the lines might go as kickoff approaches.

Here is my favorite play for the Super Bowl:

San Francisco 49ers (-2, 47.5) vs. Kansas City Chiefs

Best Bet – Kansas City Chiefs Under 21.5 points (+120)

Kansas City has only scored 22+ points in nine out of 20 games (45%), which means they’ve gone Under this 21.5 total in 55% of their games; furthermore, in games against TSI top 10 teams, Kansas City has only gone Over 21.5 in two out of five games (40%). However, the +120 odds that DraftKings is currently offering implies a 45% chance they go Under the total, leaving us with a big enough edge for me to feel comfortable with this bet.

To learn more about who I am or what my T Shoe Index is, be sure to read my introduction on VSiN.com and check out my free NFL Guide with ratings, projections and win probabilities for every single game this season and follow me on X, @TShoeIndex.