2024 Super Bowl Favorite Prop Bets
We asked our VSiN hosts, writers, and DraftKings Network personalities to share their favorite Super Bowl 58 prop bets in this year’s Super Bowl Betting Guide.
Here are those picks and predictions from our experts.
Top NFL Resources:
Odds as of Monday February 5 when the Guide was released.
Femi Abebefe
Patrick Mahomes Over 25.5 Completions (+100)
Based on how the Kansas City Chiefs have played this postseason, I’d expect them to try to protect their defense and play an efficient, ball-control type of offense. Ever since their Christmas loss to the Raiders, Mahomes has done a terrific job of taking what the defense gives him and protecting the football. KC has only turned the ball over twice in three playoff games, both of which were fumbles. I’d anticipate Mahomes being able to find completions over the middle to his trusted targets Travis Kelce and Rashee Rice–almost as an extension of the run game. With a lot of the discussion about the Niners run defense needing to step up, my guess is they sell out early to stop Pacheco, which should allow Mahomes and the passing attack to matriculate the ball down the field.
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Gill Alexander
Christian McCaffrey Most Receiving + Rushing Yards (-160)
The juice might scare some away but in his last eight games, regular season and playoffs, McCaffrey has led this category six times. I prefer playing it over a bet in one of the two separate categories of most rushing yards and most receiving yards because I worry about an emphasis on Isiah Pacheco eclipsing McCaffrey in the former, and a Niners receiver besting CMC in the latter despite KC’s solid corners.
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Josh Appelbaum
Longest Kickoff Return Under 27.5 Yards (-145)
The Under is heavily juiced, signaling sharp liability and a possible fall to 27 or less before gametime. The game will be played in a dome at Allegiant Stadium, which means the ball is likely to travel further in a controlled environment, leading to more touchbacks. Both teams are top 12 in terms of average kickoff yardage allowed (KC 20.1, SF 21.8). Butker has a touchback percentage of 87% and Moody 60%. Why risk a runback and potential fumble/turnover (or get pinned deep) when you can give the ball to your offense at the 25?
For the Swifties (DK Sportsbook): “15”
Mahomes 15+ rush yards, 215+ pass yards (-140)
Mahomes has seen his passing yard prop rise from 259.5 to 261.5. The game will be played indoors. Jared Goff just threw for 273 against the 49ers in the NFC Championship game. Mahomes threw for 286 against the 49ers in the Super Bowl four years ago. In terms of rushing, Mahomes has seen his rushing prop rise from 25.5 to 26.5. He rushed for 44 yards against the Eagles in last year’s Super Bowl. He is also likely to dive and fight for extra yardage instead of sliding since it’s the Super Bowl. I’ll combine the two props together at a far better yardage number and pay -140.
Kelce Over 70.5 receiving yards (-130)
Kelce has gone Over this receiving yard number in all three postseason games thus far and has seemingly gotten stronger every week. He had 71 yards against Miami, 75 against Buffalo and 115 against Baltimore. He leads the Chiefs in postseason targets with 27. Kelce is likely to benefit from a week of extra rest as well. He has averaged 98.2 receiving yards in his last 12 postseason games. The 49ers just gave up 97 yards to Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship game. Plus, Kelce has the added motivation of trying to impress someone very famous in the box suite. Give me Kelce to record 71 yards or more on Sunday.
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Matt Brown
Isiah Pacheco Most Rushing Yards in Game (+170)
This one comes down to some simple math and how I predict the defensive strategy to play out. The high rush total is very, very likely to be either Christian McCaffrey or Pacheco as the lead backs for both teams. Pacheco’s market high rush yards prop (as of this writing) is 67.5 yards. His rush attempts prop is 16.5. That comes out to 4.09 yards per carry, a half-yard less than his 4.6 yard per carry average on the season and far less than the 4.9 and 6.3 yards per carry the 49ers have allowed to the Packers and Lions this postseason.
I have the Chiefs winning the game, so the potential for a few more Pacheco carries is there as they try and ice the game. I also have the Chiefs selling out to stop the run and begging Brock Purdy to dump to the middle of the field or test their elite outside corners, potentially limiting McCaffrey’s upside. Given their roles as bell cows and how I project the game, the price on Pacheco (+170 to CMC’s -250) is too good to pass up.
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Stormy Buonantony
Isiah Pacheco to score a Rushing TD (+115)
Pacheco is -125 in the Anytime Touchdown market, but +115 to score a rushing touchdown. While Pacheco has made his way to the end zone eight times in the last seven games, just one of those scores was a receiving TD. He’s also scored a rushing TD in each of the three playoff games to this point. Since the Chiefs got embarrassed on Christmas Day, they’ve altered their offensive philosophy and have leaned more on Pacheco and the run game. They should also have the upper hand against a 49ers team that was 15th in run defense DVOA during the regular season, a far cry from a unit that ranked first in that category each of the last two years. While Aaron Jones didn’t score a TD in the Divisional Round against SF, he still gashed their defense for more than 100 yards. Both David Montgomery and Jahmyr Gibbs got their yards and punched in scores during the NFC Championship Game for the Lions.
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Adam Burke
Elijah Mitchell Over 1.5 Rush Attempts (-115)
The 49ers should be looking to take advantage of Kansas City’s front seven and run the football in this game. The Chiefs were 27th in Defensive Rush DVOA and are now missing Charles Omenihu, which is a hit to the defensive line, even if he’s used in more of a pass-rushing capacity. In all but one of the 11 games Mitchell was active for in the regular season, he had at least two carries. He had four against the Lions after only playing one offensive snap against the Packers.
My guess is that Kyle Shanahan tries some two and maybe even three-back sets to confuse the Chiefs defense and look for some power-running opportunities. If nothing else, Mitchell could be used to spell Christian McCaffrey here and there in what will be a very high-octane game.
L’Jarius Sneed Over 4.5 Tackles + Assists (-115)
Sneed finished the regular season tied for third in combined tackles with Drue Tranquill and just behind Trent McDuffie. Justin Reid was far and away the top tackler and I do think Over 6.5 at a nice plus-money price is worth consideration as well. The reason why I pick Sneed here is that the 49ers like to run a lot of stretch plays and get McCaffrey out on the boundaries. That will force the corners to help out more in run support.
Sneed had five tackles and assists in the games against Buffalo and Baltimore, but the Niners will have more outside running than those two teams. San Francisco also likes to get receivers involved in the run game, which could help Sneed find an extra tackle or two.
Patrick Mahomes 1st Quarter Rushing Yards Under 6.5 (-120)
During the regular season, Mahomes only had nine rush attempts in the first quarter. He had 58 yards on those nine carries, but he’s not going to run around and take any unnecessary abuse in the early portion of this game. Also, the first quarter usually moves pretty quickly in these games because of the scripted drives of each offense. You have two gifted play callers here in Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan, so I anticipate some longer drives in the early going.
Scripted runs for Mahomes don’t strike me as a thing and he’s really good at extending plays until somebody gets open. He also had his highest quarter by completion percentage (75.2%) in the first quarter, so the scripted plays work and he’ll find somebody open that will keep him from having to run.
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Kelley Bydlon
Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards
Patrick Mahomes being back in another Super Bowl will steal most of the headlines, but this Chiefs team has continued to improve this season as they’ve leaned more on their defense and running game. Despite one of the overall best defenses in the NFL, the 49ers have struggled to stop the run at points this season and Pacheco has been a go-to weapon for this Chiefs offense, especially lately. He’s gone Over this number in four straight games, and six of his last eight games. Even when he has struggled to get big gains, we saw in the AFC Championship game the Chiefs continue to go back to him, as he finished with 24 carries.
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Zachary Cohen
Travis Kelce Alt Receiving Yards 80+
Kelce was tremendous in the win over the Baltimore Ravens, hauling in 11 catches for 116 yards and a score. It’s just very clear that Patrick Mahomes is more comfortable looking in his direction than anywhere else. That said, Kelce is going to be targeted a ton in Super Bowl LVIII. The 49ers are also a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to yards per game for opposing tight ends (52.6 YPG) and Kelce, obviously, isn’t your average tight end. So, even though this is a good San Francisco defense, the matchup isn’t all that bad for Kelce. With that in mind, I’d suggest playing Kelce to have at least 80 yards at plus-money odds. The 49ers gave up 97 yards against Sam LaPorta in the NFC Championship game, plus 86 yards to T.J. Hockenson earlier in the year. They have struggled with top-tier tight ends, and Kelce clears all of them.
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Julian Edlow
Patrick Mahomes Longest Rush Attempt Over 12.5 Yards (-120)
Plenty of urgency in the postseason, along with Mahomes operating with the worst WR room of his career should lead to more scrambling. He’s 2-1 to the Over on this prop in this postseason, with a narrow miss against Baltimore – long carry of 11 yards. Mahomes is 9-6 to the Over on this number since the 2020 postseason. Why go with longest rush over total rushing yards? You may recall the last Super Bowl between these two teams when Mahomes went well Over his rushing prop, but lost about 15 yards on late-game kneel downs to ultimately cash his Under in one of the bad beats in Super Bowl prop betting history.
Isiah Pacheco Over 66.5 Rushing Yards (-120)
Pacheco has been a battering ram in the postseason, going Over this number in all three games so far, averaging 84.7 rushing yards per game. Now he’ll face a Niners defense that’s been all bark and no bite in the postseason – surrendering 159 rushing yards per game against the Packers and Lions at home. In those matchups, the lead backs for the opposing teams easily cleared this number, with Aaron Jones ripping off 108 yards on 18 carries and David Montgomery pounding it 15 times for 93 yards (with Jahmyr Gibbs and Jameson Williams combining for another 87 rushing yards on 13 carries).
Travis Kelce Over 70.5 Receiving Yards (-120)
Super public prop here betting an Over on Taylor Swift’s boyfriend, but Kelce’s postseason dominance cannot be ignored. Mahomes and Kelce recently passed Tom Brady and Rob Gronkowski as the duo with the most postseason touchdown connections of all-time, and the chemistry was obvious in the AFC Championship Game in Baltimore. Kelce reeled in all 11 of his targets in that one for 116 yards – including some improvised plays on the field that just cannot be stopped. Kelce has now topped 70 receiving yards in 12 consecutive postseason games, a span in which he averages 98.2 yards per game.
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Sean Green
San Francisco 49ers Under 20.5 Team Total (+170)
Patrick ‘Showtime’ Mahomes is getting a ton of talk in the week leading up to the Super Bowl, but this Kansas City defense needs more credit. They’ve played 20 games this season and held their opponents to 20 points or less 16 of those times for an 80% hit rate to this number. L’Jarius Sneed, who is one of the league’s best CBs right now will be licking his chops at the number of Brock Purdy interceptable passes has thrown this postseason. Purdy has struggled when playing elite defenses like the Browns and Ravens.
In addition, this KC defense has shined against top-tier opponents like the Bills, Ravens and Dolphins already this postseason. If the 49ers do have success it will likely be from pounding the rock with Christian McCaffrey which will slow down the game script and lean the entire game towards the Under. Sure, maybe Purdy will throw his patented deep bomb off the defender’s helmet right to Brandon Aiyuk’s hand, but I’ll be betting against it.
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Pauly Howard
Team That Scores Last Wins The Game: ‘Yes’ (-195)
VSiN Betting Guide editor Matt Devine noted that this prop has won 20 of the 22 times in the Super Bowl on his Follow The Money appearance.
Both Teams to Have a Rush TD: ‘Yes’ (+130)
Both Teams to Make a 33+ Yard Field Goal (+110)
Pauly also likes Chiefs +2 due to having the better QB, coaching staff, defense, special teams, and Patrick Mahomes is 10-1-1 ATS as an underdog.
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Stephanie Kamerschak
Christian McCaffrey – Anytime TD in the 1st Half (+130)
In addition to betting on McCaffrey to score the game’s First Touchdown, I’ll be playing it safe with this bet that is somehow at a plus-money price. This is the easiest way to get away from the ugly -220 out there on Anytime Touchdown and, in my opinion, it’s the same bet. Including the playoffs, CMC scored a touchdown in the first half of 13 of his 18 games this year. I also like this better than the +150 for him to score the 49ers’ first touchdown, since you don’t need to stress if somebody else scores first, as you have the entire first half for him to find the end zone. That peace of mind is worth the measly 20 cents.
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Ryan Kramer
49ers First Reception – Kyle Juszczyk +2375
First, we set the stage, Super Bowl 58 features a couple of teams, the Chiefs and 49ers with narrow target distribution. Since Week 12, 81% of the targets have gone to four dudes – Deebo Samuel 23%, Brandon Aiyuk 21%, Christian McCaffrey 19%, and George Kittle 18%. This presents top-heavy pricing, which tends to produce value “down the board” in a market like first reception. We then remove possession variance by isolating the 49ers first reception market.
Kyle Shanahan is the ultimate galaxy brain, tendency breaker in the big spot and I believe he has tipped his hand heading into the big game. With all eyes on his four dudes against the vaunted Ravens defense in Week 16, on the second play of the drive (after a McCaffrey catch) they targeted Juszczyk over the middle like a tight end. Now, skipping again to the NFC Championship Game vs. the Lions, after a McCaffrey run, Juszczyk once again was targeted by Brock Purdy but the pass was deflected.
Often the fifth member of the skill group out there with McCaffrey, Deebo, Aiyuk, and Kittle has been Juszczyk. In two of the last four games, Juszczyk has been targeted on the first drive of the game. The big four are all priced between +290 and +400, and Kyle is priced to the moon at +2375. Let It ride.
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Michael Lombardi
Christian McCaffrey Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
The 49ers will need to borrow the plan from the Bills offense, mix running and short passes which will set up perfectly for McCaffrey to have a big day catching passes. Who can cover him for the Chiefs? No one and Shanahan needs to exploit the matchup.
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Emerson Lotzia
Travis Kelce 1st TD scorer (+700)
We’ve reached the biggest stage in football. And you know who tends to show up on the biggest stage in football? Dudes who are trying to impress their superstar, global icon, billionaire girlfriends. And only one guy in this game fits that description: Travis Bleepin’ Kelce.
Maybe it’s Mahomes, perhaps it’s Taylor Swift, but Big Yeti is back to his old productive self. Throughout this KC playoff run, he’s racked up a thicc 23 receptions for nearly 300 yards and three touchdowns. He’s well rested and in love with a 12-time Grammy winner, which, to me, points to a very productive Super Bowl Sunday. I expect him to be involved early and often on the Chiefs’ first possession. He scored the first touchdown against Baltimore in the AFC title game AND in last year’s Super Bowl against the Eagles. It’s hard to pass up the value in this market with the great odds DK Sportsbook is offering. And for what it’s worth, Kelce also scored a short TD in KC’s Super Bowl 54 win over San Francisco, albeit not the first.
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Steve Makinen
Brock Purdy Under 245.5 Passing Yards
There are a lot of experts looking at this year’s Super Bowl as a matchup of Patrick Mahomes against the 49ers dynamic offense. However, I feel the unit being overlooked most in this game is the Chiefs defense, which has been nothing short of dominant in the last couple of months, just like in 2020 when these same teams met in the NFL title game. In that one, KC held 49ers QB Jimmy Garoppolo to 219 yards through the air. My projection for this Sunday is 213 for Purdy. The most the Chiefs have allowed in any recent game was 255 last week to a desperate, come-from-behind Ravens team. My forecast model shows that the expected KC defensive yards per attempt allowance is a little over 4.0, a miniscule number by NFL standards. I don’t think Kyle Shanahan can put this game on Purdy and expect to win, so I think win or lose, Purdy doesn’t make it to 245.
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Patrick Meagher
Brock Purdy Under 247.5 Passing Yards
Purdy has averaged 259.5 pass yards in two playoff games vs. the Packers and Lions, but faces a much better Chiefs pass defense here and they are peaking. The Chiefs gave up an average 176.5 passing yards allowed in the regular season, the fourth-fewest in the league. Shanahan is innately run-first and I think that philosophy plays out here with more time to prepare. With KC’s secondary peaking, 247.5 is too high.
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Mitch Moss
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception Over 13.5 Yards (-110)
MVS saw his route rate percentage go from 56% vs. Buffalo to a season high 96% at Baltimore. Patrick Mahomes hasn’t been able to trust many of his receivers deep down the field for the entire year. Valdes-Scantling has emerged as that guy during the playoffs. I like San Francisco to win the game. In doing so, Kansas City could be chasing throughout the game. I believe MVS will see some mid-to-deep targets if Mahomes is taking shots down the field. MVS also had two catches of 30+ yards vs. Buffalo, another 32-yard catch at Baltimore, and did go Over this number in eight regular season games.
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Greg Peterson
Patrick Mahomes Under 260.5 Passing Yards
This is a new look Chiefs team that unlike in past Super Bowls does not have as many weapons on the outside, but instead has been built on stout defense and methodically moving the ball. Coupled with the emergence of Isiah Pacheco being trusted much more as the season goes along, it takes the pressure off of Mahomes having to have a big night through the air for Kansas City to win.
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Mike Pritchard
Christian McCaffrey/Isiah Pacheco Anytime TD Parlay (+159)
Peyton Manning has predicted that both offenses will move the ball very well in the Super Bowl. My bet is a high percentage play, but it is a parlay. McCaffrey should receive multiple opportunities to score a rushing TD and the same goes for Pacheco.
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Wes Reynolds
Distance of Longest Punt Over 56.5 Yards (-130)
With Allegiant Stadium being an enclosed venue and 2,000 feet above sea level, it is a very good environment for kickers and punters.
49ers P Mitch Wishnowsky played two games this year in permanently enclosed stadiums. He kicked a 67-yarder at SoFi Stadium and a 62-yarder at U.S. Bank Stadium.
Chiefs P Tommy Townsend played games in the same two stadiums and kicked a 61-yarder at SoFi and a 58-yarder in Minneapolis. Plus, he had a 68-yarder at retractable roof Deutsche Bank Park in the game held in Frankfurt, Germany.
Both these coaches are still more “old school” than “new school” and are willing to play a more traditional field position game and both these punters will have opportunities.
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Tyler Shoemaker
Kansas City Chiefs Under 21.5 Points (+120)
This one is all about math for me (as it often is). My T Shoe Index projects a 24-20 49ers win in this game, for starters. On top of that, Kansas City has only scored 22+ points in nine out of 20 games (45%), which means they’ve gone Under this 21.5 total in 55% of their games; furthermore, in games against TSI top 10 teams, Kansas City has only gone Over 21.5 in two out of five games (40%). However, the +120 odds that DraftKings is currently offering implies a 45% chance they go Under the total, leaving us with a big enough edge for me to feel comfortable with this bet.
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Jared Smith
Under 4.5 Sacks
Patrick Mahomes and Brock Purdy ranked second and third respectively this season in “pressure-to-sack” rate, which measures the percentage of a quarterback’s pressured dropbacks that result in a sack. Only Josh Allen had a lower mark. In the Super Bowl last year, all I heard all week was how the vaunted Eagles pass rush, which set a single-season record in sacks, was going to wreak havoc on Mahomes. Well, they forced plenty of pressure, but failed to get home once.
This year things aren’t as simple as just betting the Chiefs to have more sacks at plus-money, because Purdy is also adept in this category. For this game, I think the best way to play the sack market is to just bet the Under as I don’t see five total sacks. Another way to play it is to bet for a touchdown to occur before a sack, which I saw priced around -125. I think with these two offenses we will see one of the scripts prevail with an early score.
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Mike Somich
Highest Scoring Quarter – 2nd Quarter +165
Generally, the two most likely winners of the highest scoring quarter are either the 2nd or 4th Quarter and the odds accurately represent, but the wrong quarter is currently favored. Currently, the 4th Quarter is +150 while the 2nd Quarter is +165. The Chiefs have gone Under in the 4th Quarter in 19 out of 20 games this year and their pace of play has slipped from one of the 10 fastest in the NFL in the first half to one of the five slowest in the second half. Factor in that if this is a close game, which most expect, both teams are capable and willing to grind out long, ball-control drives that chew up clock. Conversely in the 2nd Quarter, both teams will still be focused on putting points on the board. Sign me up for the better price in the more likely quarter to hit.
Most Receiving Yards in the Game – Rashee Rice +320
This is another price that I disagree with. You have four primary pass catching options on the 49ers facing the fourth-best pass defense in the NFL. It will be tough sledding for any individual player to go off for San Francisco, especially with the way the Chiefs limit big plays through the air. That leaves Kelce and Rice as the two most likely game leaders. San Francisco will come into this game with a determination to take away Kelce which should lead to additional Rice targets. While Kelce leads the way in targets in the playoffs for the Chiefs with 27, Rice is right behind with 25 and has shown he is capable of a big game with his 130-yard effort versus the Dolphins in the Wild Card round.
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Longest Reception Over 13.5 Yards
MVS’s receiving yards prop is sitting at 18.5 for the game and, while I think he goes Over that mark, I’d rather play his longest reception prop since I am effectively getting a five-yard discount. This season, he has never eclipsed the 19-yard mark without catching a pass of 14 or more yards. However, he does have a game where he has a reception of over 14 yards and did not go Over 19 yards. The routes that he generally runs are all deeper than the 14-yard mark, so we are looking for Mahomes to connect with him once on those.
I did play Over MVS’s receiving as well, but I played the alt lines of 25+ and 40+ receiving yards at plus-money prices instead of laying juice at 18.5. His targets will be down the field, so I would rather have the upside of one long catch that could get Over both numbers.
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Dustin Swedelson
Christian McCaffrey 1st 49ers TD (+145)
The 49ers aren’t going to get down to the red zone and let Brock Purdy mess up their drives with a turnover. Plan A will be utilizing CMC as the dynamic weapon he is once San Francisco is inside the 20-yard line. McCaffrey has scored the 49ers’ first TD in 8 of 18 games that he played in this year. He had the most rush attempts and second-most rush yards in the red zone this year among all NFL players. Among NFL running backs inside the red zone, CMC was also: second in receiving yards, first in receiving TDs and second in rushing TDs. He was also one of the most popular red-zone targets this season.
Harrison Butker Over 1.5 Field Goals Made (-110)
Dan Campbell just showed us how different the playoffs and postseason are. You can’t walk away from points in the name of analytics when the sample size is just one game. This isn’t the explosive Chiefs offense we are used to seeing and they are prone to drives stalling out. Kansas City was just 19th in Red Zone TD Scoring (52.7%) this season. Because the offense is less reliable, I don’t think Andy Reid will be afraid to use his kicker, especially when the kicking game is an edge for the Chiefs in this matchup. Butker has made at least two field goals in 12 of 20 games this season. In the playoffs, he made four vs. Miami and two at Buffalo, but just one in the AFC Championship at Baltimore. And remember, when KC lost to Tampa Bay in Super Bowl LV, the Chiefs were held out of the end zone but Butker nailed three field goals in the loss. Also, the losing team’s kicker from the last four Super Bowls has had at least two field goals in the game and I like San Francisco to win.
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Ross Tucker
Christian McCaffrey Over 35.5 Receiving Yards
The Chiefs have really good cornerbacks which means the Niners will have to try to exploit their linebackers in coverage and McCaffrey is the best way to do this. His Over/Under for receptions is 4.5 so even if he falls short and is at four catches, that is still only nine yards per reception to hit the yardage Over, which seems very doable with a good chance he will have one or two that go for 10+ yards.
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Dave Tuley
Game tied after 0-0 (following PATs) -120: In the recent era with Super Bowl point spreads relatively close to pick ’em, I love this prop, as we just need to get tied during the whole game. After missing two years in a row, it cashed last year when the Chiefs and Eagles traded TDs on their opening drives for a tie at 7-7.
Before the two-year mini-drought, this bet cashed in four straight Super Bowls and it’s 6-3 overall in the last nine years. It can happen as early as 3-3 in the 2019 game between the Patriots and Rams, or as late as 28-28 in 2017 when the Patriots famously rallied to catch up with the Falcons with 57 seconds left in regulation.
The 49ers and Chiefs are pretty evenly-matched, as the low point spread indicates (and some books looked like they could be moving toward pick ’em), so we expect this to be a close, back-and-forth game with both teams fully capable of matching scores at some point.
Largest lead Under 14.5 points -130: This is another prop tied to our prediction of a close, back-and-forth game. Since joining VSiN, I’ve gone 5-1 with this prop (and 7-2 the last nine years with the only losses being the Buccaneers’ 31-9 rout of the Chiefs three years ago and the Falcons’ infamous 28-3 lead vs. the Patriots seven years ago).
Again, we’re counting on both offenses to be able to rally if falling behind by two scores. I’m not crazy about the increased juice, but I’m actually relieved as I feared that oddsmakers might lower the number to 13.5 (or increase the juice further) with all the recent success along with the spread so close to pick ’em.
Halftime Tie/49ers Win 17/1 and Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win 20/1: This is basically a bet on there being a tie at halftime, again based around our prediction of this being a close, back-and-forth Super Bowl. Since we don’t see “Will the game be tied at halftime?” prop offered anywhere, we play this “Double Result” and take both the “Halftime Tie/49ers Win” at 17/1 and “Halftime Tie/Chiefs Win” at 20/1 options (a little higher than recent years, which is nice as we see it even more likely).
If the game is tied at intermission, we know we’re going to end up with a net profit of +750 if the 49ers win or +950 if the Chiefs win. This has been a long-term profitable play as it cashed four years ago when the Chiefs-49ers Super Bowl LIV was tied at 10-10 and the Patriots-Seahawks Super Bowl XLIX that was tied 14-14, and just missed a couple of other times, so always worth a shot, especially in games lined under a field goal.
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Ben Wilson
Isiah Pacheco Over 15.5 Rush Attempts (-120)
Pacheco has looked like a man possessed ever since fellow RB Jerick McKinnon went down with injury in late December. In the six games since, he’s taken 89% of the team’s carries and racked up over 107 yards per game in the process. For a back who can both pound the ball between the tackles and bounce it outside the numbers, it’s a dream matchup against a 49ers rush defense that gave up a combined 288 rush yards on 57 carries in their two playoff wins (that 5.1 YPC allowed would have ranked dead last in the NFL if extrapolated to a full-season sample). San Francisco also finished the regular season 25th in Rush EPA and 24th in defending runs outside the numbers, so it’s not like the small postseason sample size is an outlier.
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Matt Youmans
Christian McCaffrey Over 90.5 rushing yards; Over 35.5 receiving yards
The 49ers’ path to winning the game is on the ground with McCaffrey, and you can bet coach Kyle Shanahan knows it. Shanahan is not planning to ride the inexperienced Brock Purdy and his erratic arm. The Chiefs’ run defense is vulnerable — the Bills, who rushed for 182 yards against Kansas City, wisely took that path before the Ravens lost their way.
In the playoffs, McCaffrey had 20 carries for 90 yards and four receptions for 42 yards versus the Lions after totaling 17 carries for 98 yards and seven receptions for 30 yards versus the Packers. I like McCaffrey’s chances to go Over his rushing and receiving totals. I’ll bet both props and if he falls short in one, no harm done. If the 49ers win, McCaffrey is probably the MVP.
