Super Bowl LIX Recap: A Tale in 10 Props:

Proposition wagers have grown to account for more than 50% of most sportsbooks’ Super Bowl handle. It wasn’t always that way as Super Bowl prop bets didn’t really start until 1986 when Chicago Bears defensive lineman William “Refrigerator” Perry scored a TD at odds of 20-1 here in Las Vegas in the Bears’ 46-10 rout of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl XX. The books lost big on that bet (they didn’t offer a “no” option), but they received nationwide publicity that built over the years for Nevada’s sports betting monopoly and has really exploded since the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision to overturn PASPA in 2017. 

The Eagles beat the Chiefs 40-22 in Super Bowl LIX after closing as 1-point underdogs and going Over the betting total of 48.5 points, but my assignment the last couple of years here at VSiN has been to tell the story of the Super Bowl by using 10 different bets throughout the game. However, similar to ESPN’s Chris Berman running over in his “Two-Minute Warning” segments at halftime of Monday Night Football games over the years, we go well over our self-imposed limit here in the telling of these stories as most of the relevant plays mentioned below cash multiple props at the same time as you’ll see.

 

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No score in first 7:30 of game: No (+155)
We often see scoring get off to a slow start in Super Bowls (even when they end up high-scoring games), and this year’s game as the Eagles and Chiefs each punted on their opening possessions. The “no” cashed at the juicy price of +155 after the first half of the first quarter at the 7:30 mark (both into the game and time remaining in the quarter). That prop was at the Westgate SuperBook, which also had the “no” cash on other versions of the prop in the first 3:30 (-500), first 4:30 (-280), first 5:30 (-150) and first 6:30 (+105).

First score of game: TD (-160)
The first score in the Super Bowl is usually a touchdown, and it’s priced that way, with TD being the -160 favorite and “any other score” (meaning field goal or safety) at +140. Last year, the 49ers drew first blood with a then Super Bowl-record 55-yard FG by Jake Moody, but on the possession where it went Over 7:30 without a score, Eagles QB Jalen Hurts hit WR Jahan Dotson for an apparent 28-yard TD pass with 6:30 left in the first quarter, but it was overturned by replay with the ball placed at the 1-yard line. On the next play, Hurts scored on a “tush push” QB sneak for the first score.

Player to score first TD: Jalen Hurts (+600)
This is always one of the most-bet proposition wagers every Super Bowl. This year was no different as it seems everyone wants to bet who hits pay dirt first (and it’s often a big payday, as would have been the case if Dotson’s TD was upheld, as he was offered at odds of around 60-1. Instead, those backing Hurts cashed at +600 as he was the second choice on the betting board (behind Saquaon Barkley at +450). Hurts was also the 3-1 second choice to be the first Eagle to score a TD. The Eagles were also a short -105 underdog to be the first team to score. The touchdown also cashed for those on the shortest TD of the game being Under 1.5 yards at -190.

Defense or special teams TD (+260)
The Eagles added a field goal to go up 10-0, but most people still thought Patrick Mahomes had plenty of time to rally the Chiefs, especially since he’s done it so many times. However, on the very next possession, Mahomes was intercepted by Eagles rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean, who returned it 38 yards for a pick-six (on his 22nd birthday, to boot) to cash this prop. The 17-0 lead also cashed the “yes” for “Will either team score three straight times?” at -170. The Over/Under for “longest TD of the game” was set at 39.5 yards, so that stayed Under for the time being.

First half: Eagles +0.5 and Over 23.5
The rout was on, and the Eagles closed out the first half with a 24-0 lead, easily covering as 0.5-point underdogs on the 1H line. The Over/Under was much more in doubt. After being only 7-0 after the first quarter, it looked like it would stay Under 23.5 points, but that was put more in doubt after DeJean’s pick-six made it 17-0. With 1:35 left before intermission, Hurts hit A.J. Brown for a 12-yard TD pass to put it Over after Jake Elliott’s point after was successful. The first-half total opened at 24.5 at several books, so those Under bettors actually cashed (it was also available at 24 at most books over the past two weeks, so those bettors got a push and a refund). The TD also cashed the “Will either team score in the final two minutes of the first half” prop at -330.

Longest TD Over 39.5 yards (-110)
The first three TDs of the game were Under the total on this prop. However, even after the Eagles took a 27-0 lead on another Elliott field goal, they weren’t content to just milk the clock (probably being reminded of the Falcons’ infamous collapse after leading the Patriots 28-3 in Super Bowl LI only to lose) and Hurts hit WR DeVonta Smith on a 46-yard bomb to go Over on this prop and build a 34-0 lead.

Xavier Worthy to score TD (+155)
Trailing 34-0 and in danger of embarrassingly getting shut out, the Chiefs finally got on the board with 34 seconds left in the third quarter on a 24-yard TD pass from Mahomes to WR Xavier Worthy, who was +155 to score a TD at anytime in the game (note: he added another on a 50-yard pass from Mahomes for the final TD of the contest). It also gave hope to Mahomes backers who bet him -420 to throw a TD pass or -150 to throw Over 1.5 TD passes or +260 to throw Over 2.5 TD passes as he ended up going Over all of those as he threw three scoring passes in just over the final quarter.

Total number of FGs Over 3.5 (+130)
We’ve mentioned a few of Elliott’s field goals for the Eagles, but he was one of the unsung heroes in the rout. With 8:01 left in the game, he booted a 50-yarder to increase the lead to 40-6. That put the combined FGs for the game Over the total of 3.5, but what was more impressive is that all four field goals were by him – and none by the Chiefs’ Harrison Butker. The 50-yarder also cashed for “longest FG” to go Over 48.5 yards (after two of his prior kicks were from 48 yards) and also the “shortest FG” to go Over 27.5 yards as his shortest was from 29 yards out.

Eagles-Chiefs Over 48.5 (-110)
With the slow start and the Eagles leading only 7-0 after the first quarter, this was looking like a stone-cold Under. However, as we wrote above, that isn’t always the case as the points started adding up. The Eagles outscored the Chiefs 17-0 in the second quarter to get back on pace for the game total of 48.5 with 24 points in the first half. Sixteen points were scored in the third quarter as the Eagles still led 34-6, and then 22 points were scored in the final 15 minutes (going Over 19.5 points for the highest-scoring quarter, by the way). The score that actually put it Over the total was Mahomes’ 7-yard TD pass to DeAndre Hopkins with 2:54 to play as it made the score Eagles 40, Chiefs 12 before the successful two-point conversion, which cashed +240 for “will there be a successful two-point conversion?”). 

Jalen Hurts wins MVP (+300)
The Super Bowl MVP is usually the QB of the winning team, and even though the Eagles’ defense dominated for most of the game, Hurts was voted the game’s MVP and cashed at odds of 3-1. That was especially a value bet for those who believed the Eagles would win as the money line was right around even money. In addition to scoring the first TD, Hurts actually led the Eagles in rushing with 72 yards. He also completed 17-of-22 passes for 221 yards and two more TDs.

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