Super Bowl LIX Thoughts, Best Bets and Player Props from Steve Makinen:

I have spent the last week and a half studying all kinds of stats, trends, matchups and more regarding Sunday’s Super Bowl matchup between the Chiefs and Eagles. And while I can certainly respect the opinion out there of those insisting the Kansas City championship pedigree is too great, or that the NFL is going to do its best to guide Andy Reid, Patrick Mahomes and company to victory, I just can’t draw myself away from my usual methods of handicapping games to agree with them. In short, I am going to be on the side of the Eagles here, and most/all of my prop takes will reflect that as well. I will explain. 

 

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For as much as I haven’t exactly embraced Philadelphia during this NFC title run, it’s inarguable that the Eagles are a more physical team and far better statistical team at this point. I have some legitimate concerns about the Chiefs and their quest to three-peat.

First, Kanas City was playing far better defensively going into last season’s Super Bowl than now. As proof, I turn to the forecasting methods I’ve shared with readers for the last five Super Bowl games. Before Super Bowl 58 versus San Francisco, my points scoring projection for San Francisco was 25.2, my yardage points projection was 20.7. Let’s average those figures out to 22.5 for the 49ers. For this year’s game, my projections for the Eagles were 31.4 and 24.3, which averages out to 27.9. While some of that has to do with Philadelphia’s offense, it goes to show that the Chiefs are estimated to give up almost 5.5 points more in this game. Those numbers don’t get that high unless the Chiefs’ defense is trending in the wrong direction. 

Second, I believe the Eagles’ physicality and approach to the game will be similar to what Tampa Bay did to the Chiefs in 2021. The Bucs had the top rushing defense in the league that season and were able to sell out and commit to stopping Mahomes. They badgered him all day with pressure and he struggled like perhaps no one had seen prior. On numerous occasions this season, including both playoff games, we have seen the Chiefs’ offense struggling to protect their star QB. They haven’t been able to balance that well with an efficient running game, and I believe that is one of the primary reasons that Kansas City finally topped the 30-point mark in its most recent game. Philly already boasts the league’s top pass defense in terms of yardage and per attempt. This is a huge strength to fall back on in forcing teams to be one-dimensional.

Third, going in an almost anti-conspiratorial direction, the NFL has been inundated with negative messaging regarding the Chiefs and what is deemed to be preferential treatment by officials. If you recall, Kansas City’s Super Bowl win over Philadelphia two years ago was marred by a late defensive holding call on the Eagles that allowed K.C. to run the clock down late for a winning field goal. I have to think the league will be on guard this weekend regarding the officiating to keep things from getting controversial. This can only benefit the Eagles. 

Fourth, the Eagles’ running game has to be of great concern to Reid and Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnulo. It has taken much of the pressure off QB Jalen Hurts. Running back Saquon Barkley has been a home run threat every time he touches the ball. The problem for the Chiefs is that they cannot afford to sell out on Barkley, since not only are his home run threats on standard Philly offensive plays, but Hurts is also a big running threat who boasts a trio of pass catchers that are as good as any in the NFL. Think of Philadelphia as a better version of Buffalo, a tremendous running team but also one with superior talent on the outside. The Bills made the mistake of abandoning their base running packages too often in the AFC title game, despite being wildly successful when using them. The Eagles haven’t proven prone to making that same mistake, especially lately. 

Finally, I can’t disregard that this version of the Chiefs is quite possibly one of the worst teams statistically to play in the Super Bowl in many years. And they are facing a team that has been superb in that regard. I wasn’t surprised to see my forecasted projections favoring the Eagles by as many as five points. From a statistical standpoint, over the course of 19 games, Kansas City hasn’t really done anything that is championship-worthy. 

Because of this, the line set by oddsmakers seems overly based on psychological manipulation rather than on actual team strength. I get it, I really do. However, it would be against all my fiber and being to play into that line of thinking. I believe Philadelphia is the better and more complete team and I can actually see the Eagles winning comfortably. It’s almost laughable that they are an underdog, despite going into championship week as a projected favorite in this matchup. I also could never overlook the fact that teams with the lesser record in Super Bowl games are on a 16-1 ATS run. 

My two most realistic projections for this game would be 1) K.C. winning a very tight game decided late or 2) Philadelphia taking care of business handily and winning by a margin not close to the point spread. I’ll go with the latter, let’s say Philly 31-24. With that in mind, I will make the following wagers in order of liking: 

1. Philadelphia ML +100

2. Philadelphia alternate line -6.5 +252

3. 6-point teaser Phi +7.5/Under 55.5 

My favorite props

A lot of my prop wagers stem from the fact that Philadelphia has committed significantly to the running game in recent weeks, and I anticipate continued success in that regard. The Eagles were the top-ranked team in the league in a couple of very important statistics when it comes to past Super Bowl betting, time of possession and pass defense, both in total yardage and yards per attempt. The Eagles controlling the pace of play can frustrate Kansas City here, and it could wind up with Mahomes facing a ton of pressure in trying to hasten the pace. Between that logic and the individual statistical projections I made for this game last week, these are the props I am looking at: 

1. Jalen Hurts — Over 38.5 rushing yards

2. Kareem Hunt — Under 44.5 rushing yards

3. A.J. Brown — anytime TD scorer +170

4. Isiah Pacheco — anytime TD scorer +265

5. DeAndre Hopkins — Over 11.5 receiving yards 

Good luck with your Super Bowl LIX wagering!

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