Chiefs vs. 49ers Super Bowl LVIII odds and predictions
In a rematch of Super Bowl LIV, the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers will clash in Super Bowl LVIII on Sunday, February 11. Naturally, this massive showdown will take place at Allegiant Stadium in Las Vegas, Nevada. It’s a fitting location for the most heavily bet game of the year. When these teams met in the Big Game in 2019, the Chiefs won 31-20 as 1.5-point favorites. That game also happened to go Under the total of 53. This year, it’s the 49ers that are favored to win their first Super Bowl championship since 1994. But that means very little when the opposing team has Patrick Mahomes. With that said, keep reading for our Chiefs vs. 49ers NFL picks and predictions to see how this one might play out.
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How To Watch Chiefs vs. 49ers
Date: Sunday, February 11
Time: 6:30 pm ET
Channel: CBS
Chiefs vs. 49ers Spread
The Chiefs have been underdogs in each of the last two games, and these were the first true road playoff games of Mahomes’ career. But Kansas City was able to find ways to win both. First, Mahomes threw for 215 yards with two touchdowns and no picks in a win over the Buffalo Bills. Then, Mahomes threw for 241 yards with a touchdown and no interceptions against the Baltimore Ravens, who had the best Defensive DVOA in football during the regular season. Kansas City’s defense, which was seventh in the league in Defensive DVOA this year, has also come up big in key moments. That unit was spectacular against Baltimore, giving up only 10 points and forcing three turnovers.
At this point, it’s getting hard to expect anything other than Chiefs wins when the lights are brightest. Even in a match-up that is quite favorable for the 49ers on paper, it’s just hard to suggest betting against Kansas City. Sure, San Francisco is first in the league in Offensive DVOA this year, but Steve Spagnuolo has his defense clicking right now. If the Chiefs are vulnerable anywhere, it’s against the run. They weren’t a good rushing defense during the regular season. But that meant very little against the Ravens, as they only gave up 81 rushing yards in a very difficult road environment. And Kansas City’s fifth-ranked passing defense really made life difficult on Lamar Jackson.
The 49ers do have an insane amount of talent on the offensive side of the ball, with Christian McCaffrey, Deebo Samuel, Bradon Aiyuk and George Kittle giving Brock Purdy all the options he can possibly ask for. But the Chiefs have proven they can slow down some elite offenses already, and Purdy has had his struggles in this postseason. That makes it pretty easy to envision a scenario in which he doesn’t make all the required throws here. Kansas City just needs to avoid giving up chunk yardage to McCaffrey on the ground, as that would make life a lot easier on Purdy.
The reality with a game like this is that it should be one that comes down to the fourth quarter. And while this might sound extremely square, you’d rather have Mahomes over Purdy in that scenario any day of the week. On top of that, Mahomes is 10-1-1 against the spread when playing as an underdog in his career. He is also looking to win his third Super Bowl, while Purdy is playing in his first. There’s a big edge in experience for Kansas City in this game, and that should matter here — especially with all of the distractions that come with this game being played in Vegas.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Total
It’d be somewhat surprising if this turned into a high-scoring affair — even with all the offensive talent on the field. After Kansas City’s 17-10 win over Baltimore in the AFC Championship Game, the Under has now hit in five of the last six Chiefs games. They’re doing an excellent job of dictating the way their games are played. That should continue against the 49ers.
These teams combined for 51 points in Super Bowl LIV, but Tyreek Hill is no longer with Kansas City. Without that electric over-the-top threat, the Chiefs have become more of a ball-control team.
San Francisco got involved in a shootout with Detroit, but the team should also be alright with a slower game. The 49ers are likely going to view the running game as a potential avenue to victory here, and that would lend itself nicely to the Under.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Player Prop
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Travis Kelce Alt Receiving Yards 80+ (+120)
Kelce was tremendous in the win over the Ravens, hauling in 11 catches for 116 yards and a score. It’s just very clear that Mahomes is more comfortable looking in his direction than anywhere else. That said, Kelce is going to be targeted a ton in Super Bowl LVIII. The 49ers are also a middle-of-the-pack team when it comes to yards per game for opposing tight ends (52.6 YPG). And Kelce obviously isn’t your average tight end. So, even though this is a good San Francisco defense, the match-up isn’t all that bad for Kelce. With that in mind, I’d suggest playing Kelce to have at least 80 yards at plus-money odds.
Chiefs vs. 49ers Prediction
This 49ers team is absolutely talented enough to win a Super Bowl. However, actually going out and doing it feels like a tough task against this opponent. Purdy has had some moments in which he has looked really shaky throughout this postseason. Now, Kansas City is going to do everything it can to make him uncomfortable. And the Chiefs happen to have the best player in the world playing quarterback for them. Mahomes simply knows how to find ways to win close games, and that’s likely going to be the difference here.
Lean: Chiefs ML
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