2023-24 NFL Season Overachievers and Underachievers
Courtesy of my T Shoe Index, I’m going to be taking a deep dive into the 2023 NFL season to analyze which teams overachieved (or underachieved) relative to preseason expectations (TSI power rating) and hypothesize why a team’s rating ended up so much different than its preseason rating.
For instance, was it turnover luck? Facing teams that were dealing with key/multiple injuries? Or on the flip side, did the team have poor injury luck themselves, causing a nosedive in TSI rating? This is an overview of the teams I’m going to cover in this series, and beginning April 16, I will highlight the teams one by one and provide more in-depth analysis of how we can use these findings to evaluate the futures market for 2024.
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For a refresher, read all about the T Shoe Index here.
Teams Who Overachieved
T Shoe Index Ratings Risers
| Ravens | 7.4 |
| Texans | 5.4 |
| Colts | 5.1 |
| Buccaneers | 4.8 |
| Bears | 3.5 |
| Rams | 3.2 |
| Dolphins | 2.7 |
| Browns | 2.7 |
| Packers | 2.6 |
| Cardinals | 2.4 |
| 49ers | 2.3 |
| Raiders | 2.1 |
| Lions | 1.7 |
| Broncos | 1.2 |
| Cowboys | 1.2 |
| Saints | 0.7 |
| Vikings | 0.5 |
| Jaguars | 0.5 |
The Baltimore Ravens, who finished 13-4 and at the top of the AFC North, including a ridiculous 7-1 on the road. Most importantly, Lamar Jackson and company finished a phenomenal 12-7 (63% ATS), covering by an average of 7.6 points per game, so it wasn’t just TSI that was apparently too low on John Harbaugh’s team, as the Ravens’ TSI rating rose 7.4 points from start to finish in 2023.
Read Tyler’s Ravens recap.
The Houston Texans, who saw rookie QB CJ Stroud light the world on fire after controversy surrounding his S2 cognitive test scores leaked prior to the draft, topped the AFC South with a 10-7 record and went 10-9 ATS, covering by 2.9 points per game and had a 5.4 point rating increase last season.
Read Tyler’s Texans recap.
The Indianapolis Colts, featuring Gardner Minshew and Anthony Richardson at quarterback at varying points of the year, had a 5.1 point power rating increase after finishing 9-8 overall and 9-8 ATS. Also worth mentioning are the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, who saw a Baker Mayfield resurgence lead them to a division-winning 9-8 record and a whopping 12-7 ATS.
Read Tyler’s Colts recap.
Read Tyler’s Buccaneers recap.
Teams Who Underachieved
T Shoe Index Ratings Fallers
| Steelers | -0.1 |
| Titans | -0.4 |
| Chargers | -0.6 |
| Bills | -0.8 |
| Falcons | -1 |
| Seahawks | -1.1 |
| Chiefs | -1.8 |
| Patriots | -4.5 |
| Eagles | -4.7 |
| Panthers | -4.8 |
| Jets | -5.1 |
| Bengals | -5.1 |
| Commanders | -5.1 |
| Giants | -5.3 |
What goes up, must come down, right? The New York Giants, Washington Commanders, Cincinnati Bengals and New York Jets all seemingly dealt with some combination of injuries and inconsistent QB play that led to their respective power ratings nosediving last season.
Read Tyler’s Giants recap.
The Giants and Commanders finished at the bottom of the NFC East, going 6-11 and 4-13, respectively, and combining to go 14-18-2 ATS.
Read Tyler’s Commanders recap.
Cincinnati, who saw franchise QB Joe Burrow battling injury to start the season before succumbing to another injury midway through, had the misfortune of playing in the toughest division in football and finished above .500 at 9-8 but missed the playoffs and finished 7-8-2 ATS.Â
Read Tyler’s Bengals recap.
The Jets saw their Aaron Rodgers Super Bowl dreams go up in flames literally seconds into the season, and young QB Zach Wilson wasn’t able to provide consistent enough QB play to pair with a stingy defense, leading to a 7-10 season and a 6-10-1 ATS record.
Stay tuned at VSiN.com for the next couple weeks as I dive deeper into these teams and provide context around what may have happened with these teams’ seasons to identify regression candidates to bet on or against in the 2024 futures market, even before my preseason TSI ratings and projections come out, which will feature projections on every NFL game of the season and win totals for each team you can use to pad your futures portfolio.
