Everyone watched the Seattle Seahawks dominate the New England Patriots on both sides of the ball on Sunday to a 29-13 victory in Super Bowl LX in Santa Clara, Calif., that wasn’t as close as the final score indicates.
For our betting recap purposes here at VSiN, the headline is that the Seahawks also easily covered as 4.5-point favorites and -230 on the money line in the wire-to-wire rout and the game stayed Under the consensus closing betting total of 45 points.
But there’s more to the story, and I like to tell it by using the prop bets that have become so popular.
So let’s see how the Seahawks’ rout unfolded.
Score in first 3.5 minutes of game: Yes (+450)
We often see scoring get off to a slow start in Super Bowls (even when they end up being high-scoring games), so the “No” is usually the winning side of this popular prop. For Sunday’s game, the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas had “Will either team score in the first 3.5 minutes of the game” and the “Yes” cashed at the very juice price of +450 as the Seahawks took the opening kickoff and only used 3 minutes and 2 seconds to march down the field to set up Jason Myers’ 33-yard field goal with 11:58 remaining in the first quarter.
First score of game: Non-TD (+130)
The first score in Super Bowls is usually a touchdown, so the “First score of the game will be?” prop was again lined with “Touchdown” favored at -150 with “Any other score” (basically field goal or safety) at +130. However, Myers’ FG also made a winner of “Non-TD.” The Seahawks were also -125 to score first.
Will either team score 3 straight times?: Yes (-170)
The “No” at a plus-price of this prop has long had the reputation among Vegas sharp bettors as a sucker bet because most pro football games have three straight scores at some point. And the “Yes” hit easily in Super Bowl LX with the Seahawks notching the first three scores of the game with three Myers field goals. For those curious, there is also a prop for “Will either team score four straight times?” but in that one the “No” is actually favored at -400 (as that’s much less likely to happen) and the “Yes” cashed again at a juicy +300 for those who took a shot.
Jason Myers Over 8.5 points (EVEN)
Myers’ three first-half FGs gave him all nine of the Seahawks’ points and put him Over his game prop of 8.5 points (even money). In fact, it could be argued at halftime that Myers was a live long shot of 100-1 to win MVP, especially as there wasn’t a clear-cut MVP choice from Seattle’s dominant defense. Myers flew Over his game total of 1.5 FGs (-160) and actually ended with 17 total points, doubling his betting total, as he kicked a Super Bowl record five field goals when his 26-yarder put the Seahawks ahead 22-7 with 5:35 remaining in the game. In addition to the first score props mentioned above, Myers also cashed a ton of other props for his backers along the way as he impressively kicked at least a FG in each quarter and was +220 to kick a FG in the first quarter, +110 to kick a FG in the second quarter, +160 to kick a FG in the third quarter and +160 to kick a FG in the fourth quarter. He also cashed +260 to make two or more FGs in any quarter (the second). But in this era where kickers make 50-yarder look like PATs, the Under 49.5 for Longest FG cashed as Myers’ longest boot was just 41 yards right before halftime.
First half: Seahawks -3 and Under 21.5
The first-half point spread (which is, logically, usually half of the game spread) was a solid Seahawks -3 for the two weeks leading up to the Super Bowl even though the game spread quickly settled in at Seahawks -4.5. Normally, we would see oddsmakers make that kind of favorite a 2.5-point first-half favorite, but it’s pretty clear they didn’t want to give Seattle backers an advantageous line of under a full field goal. As it turned out, the books probably saved themselves some money there if they deterred some bettors from laying the full 3 or if it caused some to flip to the Patriots +3 in the first half as the Seahawks led 9-0 at intermission to easily cover with Myers’ three FGs. Despite the very early first FG, the Under 21.5 was never really in doubt with the Patriots only having four first downs and never threatening to add to the first-half total.
Player to score first TD: AJ Barner (14-1)
This is always one of the most-bet proposition wagers every Super Bowl and this year was no different as it seems everyone wants to bet who hits pay dirt first (and it’s often a big score). There was no TD in the first half (“No TD” in first half was offered at 10-1 at the Westgate SuperBook) or even through the first three quarters (and those who took a flier on “no TD” in the whole game at 120-1 were probably starting to dream how they were going to spend their winnings, but then Seattle tight end AJ Barner caught a 16-yard TD pass from Sam Darnold with 13:24 remaining in the fourth quarter to send those who got 14-1 odds on him into a frenzy. Barner was the third betting choice among Seattle players (behind just Kenneth Walker III and Jaxon Smith-Njiba) and sixth choice overall (behind New England’s Rhamondre Stevenson, Stefon Diggs and Hunter Henry. Barner was also the sixth betting choice at 16-1 to score the first TD of the second half at the Westgate.
Defense or special teams TD: Yes (+270)
This prop usually doesn’t cash as the “No” is favored at -330 – and heading into the final minutes of Super Bowl LX it didn’t look it would cash either – but Seahawks LB Uchenna Nwosu intercepted Patriots QB Drake Maye and took it to the house for a 45-yard pick six TD with just 4:27 remaining in the game to hit it at +270 for bettors who take a chance. This cashed for the second straight year as Eagles rookie cornerback Cooper DeJean had a pick six (on his 22nd birthday to boot) off Patrick Mahomes in the Eagles’ 40-22 rout of the Chiefs last year. In addition, that play also paid off for Longest TD of the Game to go Over 36.5 yards (-110). The previous longest TD of the game was Maye’s 35-yard TD pass to WR Mack Collins with 12:27 to play.
Kenneth Walker III to win MVP (+500)
The Super Bowl MVP is usually the QB of the winning team, but with Darnold not putting up the most impressive stats (19-for-38, just 50%, for 202 yards and one TD, though he avoided throwing an INT), Seattle RB Kenneth Walker III cashed for backers at +500 as the third choice behind the two starting QBs. Walker, who became the first RB in 28 years to win Super Bowl MVP since Denver’s Terrell Davis in Super Bowl XXXII, rushed for 135 yards on 27 carries as the workhorse (with his running mate Zach Charbonnet sidelined with a torn ACL) and adding another 26 yards on two receptions. It was interesting to hear NBC color commentator Cris Collinsworth say that the MVP voting might have flipped to Walker if a long TD run hadn’t been called back on a holding penalty (as he was probably assuming the winning QB, Darnold, would get the nod), but Walker had apparently sealed the award with his strong play the whole game, including outgaining the Patriots in the first half.
And now you know, to steal the line of famed radio broadcaster Paul Harvey, the rest of the story of Super Bowl LX.
