AFC South
The AFC South is arguably the league’s most intriguing and unpredictable division. In recent years, the Texans have emerged as the class of the group, capturing the division crown in each of the last two seasons — and six times in the past decade. Last year, Houston finished 10-7 in what was a shaky sophomore season for quarterback C.J. Stroud. Meanwhile, Indianapolis, Jacksonville and Tennessee all struggled to find consistency.
The Texans remain the team to beat, even after losing left tackle Laremy Tunsil. The team retooled the offensive line with veteran additions and focused on depth in the draft, hoping to keep Stroud upright and productive. Houston’s offense, led by Stroud, Joe Mixon and Nico Collins, is expected to be explosive, but questions linger about pass protection and defensive depth. Still, the team’s recent success and roster continuity makes the Texans the early favorites.
The Colts are looking to break their division title drought and took steps forward this offseason. They drafted a highly talented tight end in Tyler Warren and made targeted free agency moves to bolster their roster. With a young core that includes quarterback Anthony Richardson, Indianapolis is banking on internal development and improved health to close the gap with Houston. Their draft was well-received, and if their young talent matures, the Colts could be a dark horse in the division. But if Richardson doesn’t step up and secure the starting job, Daniel Jones is lurking in the shadows. There’s been some buzz about Jones’ play in practice, and he could offer the team the solution it’s looking for at quarterback.
The Jags, meanwhile, underwent a major overhaul, bringing in new head coach Liam Coen and trading up in the draft to select two-way star Travis Hunter. The offense is expected to be more dynamic, and there’s optimism that the new regime can spark a turnaround after a disappointing 2024 campaign.
There isn’t as much hope for the Titans, but the team did draft Miami quarterback Cameron Ward with the first pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. They’re very much rebuilding and playing the long game, but the hope is that Ward will be the franchise player they’ve been looking for. If he is, Tennessee isn’t too far away from being a factor in this weak division.
For bettors, the AFC South could offer some long-term value. This is one of the NFL’s most wide-open races, and it’s one in which the favorite really isn’t head-and-shoulders above the competition. Houston could very well win the division for a third year in a row, but nobody would be too surprised if Indianapolis or Jacksonville takes that spot.
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Houston Texans
The Texans enter the season looking to take another step under head coach DeMeco Ryans. After years of rebuilding and inconsistency, Houston surged back into relevance in 2023 and 2024, posting back-to-back 10-7 records and making playoff appearances both seasons.
The 2024 campaign saw the Texans start hot at 5-1 and win the AFC South, but offensive struggles and injuries led to a late-season stumble. They did manage a wild-card victory over the Chargers, but a fourth-quarter collapse ended their run in Kansas City. Despite the disappointment, the Texans’ defense emerged as an elite unit, and the front office responded to offensive shortcomings with sweeping changes. Let’s see if they work.
Offense
The big story for the Texans offense is the arrival of Nick Caley as offensive coordinator, replacing Bobby Slowik after a season in which C.J. Stroud regressed and tossed 12 interceptions. Caley is tasked with revitalizing an offense that averaged just 21.9 PPG and finished 21st in EPA per play (-0.038).
The offensive line, a major weakness last year, has been completely retooled. Laremy Tunsil was traded to Washington, and Houston went out and signed Cam Robinson and Laken Tomlinson. Tytus Howard shifts inside to guard, with Blake Fisher at right tackle and Jake Andrews at center. Howard says the goal is to be “more nasty up front,” but none of these guys have really proven themselves — at least when looking at PFF grades.
If the line delivers and does a better job of pass-protecting, the hope is that Stroud will take a step forward after taking a small step back in 2024. He has a good group of pass-catchers, so there will be no excuses if he has time to throw.
The running game should also be better in 2025. Joe Mixon’s 1,016 rushing yards and 11 rushing touchdowns seemed good on the surface, but this was an inefficient running game last year. It’ll need to be better this season.
Defense
Houston’s defense is the clear strength of the team and among the NFL’s best. The front seven is anchored by pass rushers Will Anderson Jr. and Danielle Hunter, who helped the Texans finish fourth in sacks in 2024 with 49. The defensive line is deep, and the linebacker group is fast and physical.
The secondary is also incredibly tough, with corners Derek Stingley Jr. and Kamari Lassiter making up one of the league’s top tandems. Safety Jalen Pitre and C.J. Gardner-Johnson round out an aggressive ball-hawking group.
Ryans and coordinator Matt Burke really know what they’re doing with the talent on the roster, and they’re good at developing the young guys. This defense was sixth in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (-0.054), and the team should be back in that range again.
Outlook
The Texans will face a first-place schedule, and they have several marquee matchups against AFC contenders — along with some tough road games. Ultimately, none of that will matter if the offensive line is better, but I have my doubts. So, while there’s a lot on this roster to like, I can’t say I see another season with double-digit wins coming. It also doesn’t help that the Colts and Jaguars should be much better.
Pick: Under 9.5 Wins
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Indianapolis Colts
The Colts are entering Year 3 under Shane Steichen. In two seasons with the former Eagles offensive coordinator, Indianapolis is 17-17. Not great, not terrible. But this team expects to compete with Houston atop the standings.
Indianapolis’ defense is rapidly improving, and things should be better on that side of the ball in 2025. But how will the offense look? We all know Jonathan Taylor is one of the best running backs in football, but poor quarterback play has plagued this team since Steichen took over. The Colts are hoping that Anthony Richardson will take some steps forward, but Daniel Jones could end up stealing the job. Regardless, Steichen needs his team to be better through the air or he could be looking for work.
Offense
Taylor had a good season in 2024, rushing for 1,431 yards with 11 touchdowns. However, the passing game didn’t do him any favors.
This year, Indianapolis is going to need Richardson to be better as a passer — and take care of himself when he decides to run. But it definitely feels like Jones has a shot at winning this job. He’s similarly big, mobile and talented, but he’s a bit sharper as a passer.
Whoever starts will have a nice group of weapons. Michael Pittman Jr. has shown that he’s a good contested-catch, jump-ball option, and Josh Downs was tremendous out of the slot last year. Tyler Warren also happened to fall to Indianapolis at 14 in the 2025 NFL Draft. He should immediately make a presence in the passing game, especially with his ability to make plays after the catch.
This offensive line should also be strong. The left side is as good as any in the league with Bernhard Taimann and Quenton Nelson forming a monster duo. And if things stabilize on the right side, Indianapolis could get back to having one of the best lines in the NFL.
Defense
The Colts are talented up front. DeForest Buckner is still a stud — even if he has lost a half-step — and there’s plenty of talent surrounding him in the front seven.
The secondary does need to improve in 2025, though. Last year, the Colts were 23rd in the league in Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.101). Maybe Charvarius Ward can change that. Last season was rough for Ward, but he was one of the better corners in football in 2022 and 2023.
It’ll also be interesting to see what defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo can do. Anarumo’s time in Cincinnati had run its course, but being in a new environment, with some decent talent to work with, should change things for the experienced play caller.
Outlook
The Colts have a tough road schedule, as they’ll face five teams that made the playoffs a year ago, plus a Seahawks team that missed out despite winning 10 games. Indianapolis probably needs to win 2-3 road games in order to win eight or nine games, but I’m still playing the Over. While the quarterback situation is messy, the Colts are good everywhere else. And I have always been a Danny Dimes truther. Let’s see him put that time in Minnesota to good use.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Jacksonville Jaguars
The Jaguars are one of the teams I highlighted when looking for this year’s version of the Broncos and Commanders. Not only is Liam Coen a brilliant offensive coach, but he filled his staff with fresh, innovative football minds. Also, new general manager James Gladstone did great work as a scout for the Rams. He’s a sharp decision maker that should get things right in Jacksonville.
This team was also more talented than last year’s 4-13 record. Honestly, the Jaguars were 2-8 in one-score games in 2024, so they were close to having an entirely different season. It just shouldn’t surprise anybody if some fresh faces can help Jacksonville rise above last year’s ineptitude, making the Jaguars a real contender to win the division.
Offense
Coen’s Tampa Bay offense was fifth in the NFL in EPA per play (0.133). Not only did he have the passing game clicking, but he also turned the Bucs into a great running team. They were sixth in Rush EPA per play (0.012), giving them an element they didn’t have the year before. So, there’s a real chance Coen does some great things with the Jags.
Jacksonville finished the 2024 season just 19th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.023), which was unacceptable considering the talent. Trevor Lawrence hasn’t lived up to the immense pre-draft hype he received coming out of Clemson, but he’s a big quarterback with a good arm and some real mobility. Coen should be able to turn Lawrence into a borderline top-10 starter, and there’s plenty of talent around him.
Brian Thomas Jr. has the potential to be an elite receiver in this league, and No. 2 pick Travis Hunter should be another dangerous weapon. The Jaguars also have a decent group of running backs, and the offensive line play shouldn’t be a problem.
Defense
This was a lousy defense in 2024. The Jaguars were 31st in the NFL in EPA per play allowed (0.131), and they had the worst Dropback EPA per play allowed (0.241). Jacksonville is hoping that new coordinator Anthony Campanile can patch things up.
The Jaguars are strong along the defensive line. Josh Hines-Allen is one of the best defensive ends in the league, and Travon Walker, the No. 1 pick in 2022, is starting to become a problem. The team also has a good group of linebackers, with Devin Lloyd and Foyesade Oluokun being the standouts.
The secondary is the big question mark. Jacksonville added Jourdan Lewis to the mix, but it’ll take stronger play from Tyson Campbell and Montaric Brown for this group to be better than it was last year. Also, Hunter can definitely help whenever he’s out there on defense. We just don’t know how often that’ll be.
Outlook
The Over on Jacksonville’s win total is one of my favorite plays heading into the season. If the Jaguars had some better luck, or coaching, last year, they probably would have won closer to seven or eight games. Well, not only should they have better coaching in 2025, but they also have a better roster — and an easier schedule. That said, not only is the Over on 7.5 a play, but I’d look into some alternates — and the Jags to make the postseason.
Pick: Over 7.5 Wins
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Tennessee Titans
The Titans went 3-14 last season. That’s not what the Tennessee front office was hoping for when hiring Brian Callahan. The Titans wanted their new coach to turn Will Levis, a second-round pick in 2023, into a serviceable starter. But bottoming out and landing the top pick in the 2025 NFL Draft wasn’t the worst thing.
Cameron Ward, who threw for 4,313 yards with 39 touchdowns for Miami, offers some hope. He’s the type of dynamic playmaker that teams are looking for at the quarterback position.
Just don’t expect this team to deliver the way Washington and Denver did with rookies under center last season.
Offense
The TItans were 30th in the NFL in EPA per play (-0.104) last year, and Levis’ play was a big part of the reason. In 12 games, Levis threw 12 interceptions and had a QBR of 27.8. Levis showed some flashes as a rookie, but it was clear in Year 2 that the team needed to move on.
Ward has good size, he’s dangerous throwing on the run and he’s not afraid to take shots. In college, he almost looked like Patrick Mahomes. The difference is that Ward’s arm isn’t as big, he isn’t as good at making reads and he’s a little more mistake-prone. But hey, not everybody stacks up well compared to an all-time great. And Tennessee isn’t expecting Mahomes. The Titans will be happy with a good starter. Ward can be that.
However, this team does lack weapons. Calvin Ridley is the No. 1 wideout, but he hasn’t looked like a top option since 2020. And while the team did sign Tyler Lockett, his best football is behind him as a smaller 33-year-old. The Titans also had a lousy running game in 2024.
Fortunately, the offensive line should be better in 2025. JC Latham and Peter Skoronski should improve, and the team signed Kevin Zeitler, who had a PFF grade of 86.5 last season. That’ll help everybody.
Defense
The Titans gave up 27.1 points per game last season. They were a little better when it came to EPA per play allowed (0.050), finishing tied for 23rd in the league. However, none of that is going to cut it with a young quarterback. And really, it’s hard to be overly optimistic about the team improving on this side of the ball.
Tennessee does have some players along the defensive line, as Jeffery Simmons and T’Vondre Sweat make up a scary duo. Sebastian Joseph-Day is also solid. This team just has an unimpressive group of linebackers and edge rushers. When you couple that with a rough group of defensive backs, you’re looking at a defense that should struggle to get stops again.
Outlook
The Over on Tennessee’s 5.5-win total is heavily juiced, so there’s some betting interest with this team. But I’m not there. While the Titans do play an easy schedule, expecting six wins is asking a lot of Ward. He’ll need to deliver immediately, and he’ll need to be more than just average. That’s not a reasonable expectation with his group of pass-catchers, and the porous defense putting him in brutal situations. I’m expecting another rough year in Nashville.
Pick: Under 5.5 Wins
