On Sunday, January 18, we’re going to be treated to a fun matchup between the Houston Texans and New England Patriots in the AFC Divisional Round. We try to dive into all of the big games throughout the NFL season and the NFL Playoffs won’t be any different. So keep reading for a Texans vs. Patriots betting preview. Also, make sure you head over to our NFL Divisional Round Betting Hub for a look at all of our NFL betting content.
MORE: Head to the Pro Picks page for best bets from all of our VSiN hosts and analysts!
How To Watch Texans vs. Patriots
When: Sunday, January 18 at 3:00 pm ET
Where: Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts
Channel: ESPN / ABC
Texans vs. Patriots Odds
Odds from DraftKings Sportsbook as of Wednesday, January 14. Look around for the best prices!
Moneyline: Patriots -170, Texans +142
Spread: Patriots -3 (-118), Texans +3 (-102)
Total: Over 40.5 (-115), Under 40.5 (-110)
Texans vs. Patriots Analysis
The Texans defense, which is the second-best unit in the league when looking at EPA per play allowed (-0.108), bailed C.J. Stroud out in the Wild Card Round. The 24-year-old had five fumbles and an interception in a 30-6 win over the Steelers last week, playing as sloppy of a game as we’ve seen at the quarterback position all year. However, Pittsburgh also happened to have two turnovers, and Houston took both of them the other way for touchdowns. The Texans were also remarkable on third downs defensively, holding the Steelers to two conversions in 14 tries.
Houston now has to stop a much better offense. Drake Maye, who might be league MVP this year, is No. 1 in the NFL in passing efficiency (0.223 EPA + CPOE Composite) this season. He has been awesome right from the jump, and he’s not going to be as easy to keep down as Aaron Rodgers was. Maye is lethal when throwing to every part of the field, but he’s also big and extremely mobile. He’s going to make some plays with his legs in this one, and he’s going to make life a lot tougher on Will Anderson Jr., Danielle Hunter, and the rest of the Texans pass rushers. However, that doesn’t mean those defensive playmakers will be completely taken out of the game. I’d be surprised if Anderson and Hunter don’t make their marks here, and I trust corners Kamari Lassiter and Derek Stingley Jr. to perform at a high level against the Patriots pass-catchers. I also like Houston’s big defensive line to limit the damage done by the New England running game.
It’s just hard not to feel like this Texans defense is up for any challenge, and it’s harder not to like them against a second-year quarterback in a cold-weather playoff game — even if that quarterback is a top-five passer in the league.
Stroud is just going to have to play a cleaner game here. The good news for him is that it’d be nearly impossible for him to play like that again. However, he’s going to need to be much, much better, and he might need to do it without Nico Collins. Collins suffered a concussion in the win over the Steelers, so there’s no guarantee he’ll be out there here. Well, Stroud’s job would be difficult with no Collins and a weak offensive line. But I’ll still take my chances with Houston. Stroud has a lot of flaws, but he also throws a beautiful deep-ball. With the defense the Texans have, all it might take is one or two big plays for Houston to find a way here.
Houston has also been good in these types of games under DeMeco Ryans. The Texans are 10-2 against the spread when playing on the road in games with totals between 35.5 and 42 points under Ryans. They’re also 8-5 ATS as road underdogs of 7 or fewer points, and they’re 17-8 ATS when facing teams with winning records in that span.
Texans vs. Patriots Player Props
Lean: C.J. Stroud Over 207.5 Passing Yards (-115)
Our OptaAI player prop projections have Stroud throwing for 240.89 yards, which is a massive edge to the Over on his passing yard total of 207.5. Of course, the uncertainty at the wide receiver position makes it a little harder to take this, and the weather report for this game doesn’t make things any better. However, even in Stroud’s miserable game against Pittsburgh, the third-year pro threw for 250 yards. That said, this number feels a little disrespectful to him.
Texans vs. Patriots Pick
I have been really high on this Patriots team all year, so it’s not easy for me to fade them in a big spot. However, it feels like the Texans defense is too good for them to be getting 3.5 in a postseason game. This one is going to end up being a grind-it-out win for whoever comes out on top, and I honestly think there’s a better chance of Houston winning outright than losing by more than a field goal. The only reason I’m not going a little bigger on this is the weather report. If it ends up being wet out there, that would favor the Patriots.
Bet: Texans +3.5 (-118)
