There are so many betting options for the NFL that it will make your head spin. The nice thing is you can find a player prop that makes sense, even if you don’t have an opinion on the side or total in a game. This is especially true if you are a serious fantasy football player because you can find some profitable prop bets while studying the matchups for your league.
Week 1 is a bit of a crapshoot because we didn’t see a lot of the first-teamers in the preseason, so we’re hoping to be on the right track with how coaches deploy players and set game plans.
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Let’s consider some player prop options, with odds from DraftKings Sportsbook. As always, shop around for the best lines.
Antonio Gibson Over 58.5 Rushing Yards (-115)
This bet largely depends on what you think about the Commanders against the Jaguars. Gibson went over this number in nine of the 16 games he played last season. Washington won seven of those games. As we know, there’s a high correlation between rushing success and game state. If a team has the lead, they are more likely to run the ball. If they are trailing, they are more likely to throw.
Gibson had at least 60 yards in all seven of Washington’s victories and had five of his highest-volume games by carries in those wins. Washington is a slight favorite against Jacksonville. I think the Commanders will be a little cautious with Carson Wentz in his Washington debut, so even if the game result isn’t favorable, Gibson should still get a good bit of work, especially with Brian Robinson Jr. sidelined.
Jacoby Brissett Under 203.5 Passing Yards (-115)
The Brissett era begins for the Browns in Week 1 against the Panthers, and one would think that Kevin Stefanski and Alex Van Pelt want to keep the ball on the ground as much as possible. Carolina is likely to flood the box in hopes of stopping the run, but Brissett is not a deep-ball threat and the Browns have a ton of questions at wide receiver beyond Amari Cooper.
This also profiles as a lower-scoring game that has the chance to be tight throughout. It doesn’t seem like Cleveland will be trailing to the point where throwing the ball becomes a necessity. The Browns have multiple running backs they can rely on and Kareem Hunt is the only one who is a major receiving threat. I don’t expect a lot of pass attempts here.
Wil Lutz Over 6.5 Points (-130)
This one is a little chalky, but the Saints appear to have the makings of a dynamic offense with Michael Thomas back, rookie Chris Olave catching balls and a healthy Jameis Winston, who was strong in seven games last season with a 14-3 TD-INT ratio. We’ll see if the Saints are able to convert at a high rate in the red zone, but they should move the ball against the Falcons.
Lutz missed all of last season following core muscle surgery, but he’s a very accurate kicker at 86.6% on field goals and 97% on extra points for his career. He should be on target after a strong preseason.
