Week 1 of the NFL regular season continues tonight as the San Francisco 49ers face off against the Los Angeles Rams in Melbourne, Australia. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime showdown using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:35 p.m. ET: San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Rams (-3.5, 48.5)
The 49ers finished 12-5 last season and oddsmakers expect another strong showing this year as their win total sits at 9.5 with the over juiced to -146 at DraftKings. Similarly, the Rams went 12-5 last year and oddsmakers expect more of the same this year as their win total is 11.5 with the over juiced to -130, the highest win total in the NFL.
This line opened with Los Angeles listed as a 2.5-point neutral site favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 65% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with Los Angeles.
This lopsided betting pushed the Rams up from -2.5 to -4. However, once the line reached 4 we saw some sharp buyback on the 49ers at an inflated +4, dropping the line back down to Rams -3.5 where it sits on gameday. We’ve also seen the juice even out toward San Francisco, as the Rams were being juiced up -3.5 (-115 or -120) and are now inching back to -3.5 (-110).
The 49ers offer buy-low “bet against the public” value as San Francisco is only receiving roughly one-third of tickets at DraftKings in a heavily bet, primetime, standalone game on Netflix.
At DraftKings, the 49ers are taking in 35% of spread bets and 45% of spread dollars. At Circa, San Francisco is receiving 62% of spread bets but a whopping 87% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of the dog plus the points, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Week 1 dogs, like the 49ers here, are 87-70 (55%) with a 7% ROI since 2016.
Week 1 divisional dogs have barked even louder, going 35-20 ATS (64%) with a 22% ROI since 2016. Week 1 inflated dogs receiving at least one additional point off the opener (like the 49ers here +2.5 to +3.5) have gone 40-25 ATS (62%) with an 18% ROI since 2016.
Kyle Shanahan is 17-9 ATS (65%) with a 28% ROI as a regular season dog getting 4-points or less.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick down from 49 to 48.5. Most books are juicing up the under 48.5 (-115) while a few others are moving down to 48.
While the market is showing under liability, the bet splits are telling a different story. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 39% of bets and 50% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 44% of bets and 55% of dollars.
Primetime unders are 281-230 (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2016.
When the primetime total is 47.5 or more, the under improves to 112-86 (57%) with a 9% ROI since 2016.
2026 Super Bowl Odds (DraftKings)
Rams +500
Bills, Ravens +1000
Seahawks +1100
Chiefs +1600
Eagles, Chargers +1700
Texans, Bengals +1800
49ers, Patriots, Lions +1900
Packers, Broncos +2000
