Player props have become one of baseball’s most entertaining ways to bet, offering value well beyond the moneyline, run line, or game total. Each day, this column highlights the best opportunities on the board — from strikeouts and hits to total bases and pitcher outs recorded — using matchup data, recent form, and betting trends to identify edges. Keep reading for the top MLB player prop picks for September 10. Also, make sure you check out our live VSiN programming for more. Our hosts and analysts will be all over the MLB, which is why it pays to be a VSiN Pro subscriber.
MORE: Check out the VSiN Pro Picks page for more bets from our talented hosts and analysts!
Thursday Player Prop Best Bets
Below you’ll find my official plays on the player prop market for Thursday. These are the ones that make the VSiN Pro Picks page and count towards my season-long record. I’ll write three up per day, but I’ll add additional ones in an “Additional Best Bets” section. I go lighter on baseball than I do other sports. My MLB units are 50% of what my normal units are.
Jacob deGrom Over 6.5 Strikeouts (-108) vs. Mariners
Rangers at Mariners – 4:10 pm ET
DeGrom has had at least seven strikeouts in four of his last six starts. Sure, we have seen some duds from the righty lately, but he’s still one of the best swing-and-miss pitchers in baseball. He should be able to take advantage of this matchup. The Mariners have a strikeout rate of 22.7% and whiff percentage of 26.2% against righties, which are some of the worst marks in the league. Of course, deGrom has gone Under in three meetings with Seattle this year, so the matchup hasn’t done him justice yet. But that can easily change.
Max Fried Over 5.5 Strikeouts (+109 – 1.5 units) & Alt Strikeouts 7+ (+205 – 0.5 units) vs. Rockies
Rockies at Yankees – 7:05 pm ET
We haven’t seen the best of Fried as a swing-and-miss guy this season, but he’s still averaging 5.1 strikeouts per game. That means he usually flirts with this number, and I expect him to do even more damage against a miserable Rockies lineup. Colorado has a strikeout rate of 25.1% and whiff percentage of 27.1% against lefties, and both of those numbers are pitiful. Fried has gone Over 5.5 strikeouts in two of his four starts against teams in the bottom 10 in strikeout rate against lefties this year.
Hagen Smith Over 2.5 Strikeouts (-123) vs. Pirates
Pirates at White Sox – 7:40 pm ET
Smith isn’t going to pitch much in this game, as he’s making his first start tonight. That likely means that he isn’t fully stretched out, so it’ll be hard for him to really record a ton of outs. However, there’s a good chance he strikes out a ton of batters in a short period of time. He has had at least three strikeouts in four of his last six appearances, and the Pirates have the worst whiff percentage (28.8%) in the league against lefties.
Additional Picks
Nick Martinez Over 3.5 Strikeouts (+105) vs. Braves
Cristian Javier Over 3.5 Strikeouts (-138) vs. Phillies
Noteworthy OptaAI Player Prop Edges
Check out the BRAND NEW OptaAI Player Props MLB pages for more of these! VSiN Pro subscribers can find 50+ player prop ideas on a daily basis! We’ll list the top edges in some of the biggest markets below, but there will always be a lot more to uncover on the pages themselves.
Evan Carter Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-111) vs. Mariners
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.47 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -334 — a +24.4% edge to the Over.
Taylor Trammell Over 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-105) vs. Phillies
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.40 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -304 — a +24.0% edge to the Over.
Ezequiel Tovar Over 0.5 Hits + Run + RBIs (-113) vs. Yankees
Our OptaAI player prop projections have him finishing with 1.44 hits, runs, and RBIs, suggesting these odds should be -321 — a +23.2% edge to the Over.
