Tonight Week 15 of the NFL regular season wraps up with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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8 p.m. ET: Chicago Bears at Minnesota Vikings (-7, 43.5)

The Bears (4-9) have dropped seven straight games and just got rolled by the 49ers 38-13, failing to cover as 3-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Vikings (11-2) have won six in a row and just crushed the Falcons 42-21, easily covering as 6-point home favorites.

This line opened with Minnesota listed as a 6-point home favorite. Early smart money laid the points with the Vikings, steaming Minnesota up from -6 to -7. However, now that we’ve reached the key number of 7 we’re seeing the Bears juiced up +7 (-115), signaling some resistance and possible buyback on Chicago at an inflated price. The public is hammering the Vikings, with 80% of spread bets at DraftKings and 72% of spread bets are Circa laying the points with Minnesota.

The Bears have notable inflated line contrarian value, as they are only receiving roughly one quarter of spread bets across the market. This means Chicago is the top “bet against the public” play of the night. At Circa, the Bears are only taking in 28% of spread bets but 67% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split. Road dogs getting 6.5-points or more are 26-17 ATS (61%) with a 16% ROI this season. Divisional dogs getting 6-points or more are 18-6 ATS (75%) this season with a 42% ROI. Dogs off a blowout loss, like the Bears here, are 114-94 ATS (55%) with a 6% ROI since 2017. Chicago also has ultimate buy-low value as an unpopular dog on a losing streak against a sell-high popular favorite on a winning streak.

In terms of the total, we’ve seen this line tick up from 42.5 to 44.5, then fall back down to 43.5. It appears as though wiseguys hit the high water mark of under 44.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 62% of bets and 69% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 84% of bets but only 62% of dollars. Monday Night Football overs are 12-5 (71%) this season with a 35% ROI. However, both teams are 8-5 to the under on the season. John Hussey, the lead ref, is 53% to the under historically.

Player Prop to Consider

Cole Kmet over 24.5 receiving yards (-110). Kmet has gone over this number in 7 of last 10 games. However, it’s a bit of a buy-low over play as he didn’t record a single catch last week against the 49ers despite being on the field for over 90% of the snaps. When Kmet faced the Vikings in Week 12 he finished with 7 catches on 10 targets for 64 yards. The Bears are a touchdown dog and will likely need to throw the ball to keep pace. Kmet could also benefit from garbage yards late in the game if Chicago is trailing.

8:30 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons (-5.5, 44.5) at Las Vegas Raiders

The Falcons (6-7) have lost four straight and just fell to the Vikings 42-21, failing to cover as 6-point road dogs. Similarly, the Raiders (2-11) have dropped nine in a row and just lost to the Buccaneers 28-13, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs.

The early opener for this game was Atlanta -3.5 on the road. However, once it was confirmed that Raiders backup QB Desmond Ridder would start in place of the injured Aidan O’Connell, we saw a swift and quick adjustment in favor of the Falcons -3.5 to -5.5 and now -6 at some shops. It appears as though sharps jumped on the Falcons at -4.5 or less. The public is all over the Falcons with 72% of spread bets at DraftKings and 67% of spread bets at Circa laying the points with Atlanta. However, there appears to be a point of resistance at the key number of 6, as most shops are still hanging -5.5 and seem reluctant to give out the key number of +6 to contrarian Raiders bettors. Las Vegas has notable inflated line “bet against the public” value as they are only taking in roughly 30% of spread bets across the market. Primetime home dogs getting 5.5-points or more are 22-12 ATS (65%) with a 24% ROI since 2020. Those looking to go contrarian and buy-low on the Raider would be wise to shop around for the +6.

Sharps have also leaned over, as the total has ticked up slightly from 44 to 44.5. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 50% of bets but 60% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 52% of bets but 80% of dollars. Both shops are showing a split public but heavier money on the over, which is likely to come from sharper bettors. Monday Night Football overs are 12-5 (71%) with a 35% ROI this season. When the total is 45 or less, the over is 6-2 (75%) with a 44% ROI. Both teams rank top 15 in pace of play, with Atlanta 10th and Las Vegas 14th. The over is 4-1 in Raiders’ home games this season.

Player Prop to Consider

Jakobi Meyers Over 59.5 receiving yards (-110). Myers has gone over this number in four of his last five games. He finished with 7 catches on 10 targets for 67 yards last week against the Bucs. He has been targeted 10 or more times in three straight games and has become to go-to receiver ever since Davante Adams was traded to the Jets. The Falcons are giving up 229.1 passing yards per game this season (25th), including 268.7 passing yards per game on the road. The Raiders are also a dog who will likely need to throw the ball to keep pace.

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