Today Wild Card Weekend continues with a trio of big playoff games to choose from. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for all three matchups using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Buffalo Bills (-8.5, 48)

The Broncos (10-7) are the 7-seed and just crushed the Chiefs 38-0 in Week 18, easily covering as 10.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Bills (13-4) are the 2-seed and just fell to the Patriots 23-16 in Week 18, losing outright as 3-point road favorites.

This line opened with Buffalo listed as an 8.5-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw some books rise to Bills -9. However, since that time we’ve seen the line fall back to Buffalo -8.5. Several shops are now juicing up the Broncos +8.5 (-115), signaling a possible gameday fall down to Bills -8. The public is backing the Bills to win big, as Buffalo is receiving 62% of spread bets at DraftKings and 61% of spread bets at Circa. However, despite receiving a majority of tickets this line has barely budged off the opener and is even slightly trending down toward the Broncos. This signals a sharp line freeze and some sneaky reverse line movement on the Broncos plus the points.

Denver has notable “bet against the public” value, as the Broncos are receiving a clear minority of tickets in a heavily bet playoff game. At Circa, the Broncos are only receiving 39% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, further evidence of pros out in Vegas grabbing the points with Denver. Wild Card dogs are 25-13 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2017. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year are 39-20 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2017. Bill Vinovich, the lead ref, is 58% ATS to the road team historically. Denver will lean on their defense to keep this close, as the Broncos are only giving up 18.3 PPG (2nd best in the NFL).

In terms of the total, it has ticked up slightly from 47.5 to 48. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 70% of bets and 82% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 66% of bets and 61% of dollars. When the total is 47 or more in a postseason game, the under is 28-17 (62%) with a 20% ROI since 2017. Weather shouldn’t be an issue here, as the forecast calls for low 30s with partly cloudy skies and mild 7-10 MPH winds.

4:30 p.m. ET: Green Bay Packers at Philadelphia Eagles (-5.5, 45.5)

The Packers (11-6) are the 7-seed and just fell to the Bears 24-22 in Week 18, losing outright as 10-point home favorites. Meanwhile, the Eagles (14-3) just edged the Giants 20-13 in Week 18, covering as 3.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Philadelphia listed as a 4-point home favorite. We quickly saw this line shoot up to Eagles -5.5 early in the week. Since that time, we’ve seen some buyback on the Packers +5.5, as a few shops have fallen back down to +5. The public is all over Philadelphia, as the Eagles are taking in 70% of spread bets at DraftKings and 71% of spread bets at Circa. The next move will be telling and something worth monitoring leading up to kickoff. Will this number trend up to -6, which will indicate late smart money breaking toward the chalk favorite? Or do we see it fall down toward -5 across the board, which will signal late sharp dog action?

The Packers have notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet game. At Circa, Green Bay is taking in 29% of spread bets but 54% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy indicating wiseguy money out in Vegas grabbing the points, not laying them. Road Wild Card dogs are 20-11 ATS (65%) with a 26% ROI since 2017. Green Bay qualifies as a “dog who can score” system match (27.1 PPG), thereby keeping pace or backdoor covering. Those looking to back Green Bay but also add some security could look to tease up the Packers from +5.5 to +11.5, thereby passing through the key numbers of 7 and 10. Teasing up Wild Card dogs 6-points has gone 31-7 (82%) since 2017.

Sharp money has also leaned under here, dropping the total from 46.5 to 45.5. This dip is notable because the public is playing the over (62% of bets at DraftKings), yet the total fell. When the total falls at least a half point in a postseason game, the under is 24-18 (57%) with a 10% ROI since 2017. The forecast calls for mid 30s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

8 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3, 50.5)

The Commanders (12-5) are the 6-seed and just outlasted the Cowboys 23-19 in Week 18 but failed to cover as 7-point road favorites. Similarly, the Buccaneers (10-7) held off the Saints 27-19 in Week 18 but failed to cover as 14.5-point home favorites.

This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite. Early in the week, we saw this line jumped up to Bucs -3.5. However, once the hook was available we saw sharp buyback on Commanders +3.5, dropping the line back down to Bucs -3 where it stands now. We are seeing continued liability on Washington as several shops are now juicing up Commanders +3 (-115). As we sit on the key number of 3, the next move will be something to keep a close eye on between now and kickoff. If we see it trend down to 2.5, that will signal late smart money siding with the Commanders. If we see it rise toward 3.5, that will indicate respected chalk action on the Buccaneers.

The Bucs are receiving 51% of spread bets at DraftKings and 58% of spread bets at Circa, signaling slight public support on the home favorite. This provides slight contrarian value on the Commanders plus the points. Playoff dogs who missed the postseason the previous year, like the Commanders here, are 39-20 ATS (66%) with a 28% ROI since 2017. Short playoff dogs +3 or less are 22-10 ATS (69%) with a 35% ROI since 2017. Wild Card Dogs getting 3-points or less are 11-2 ATS (85%) with a 65% ROI since 2017. Craig Wrolstad, the lead ref, is 56% ATS to the road team historically.

In terms of the total, we haven’t seen it budge much off the opener of 50.5. This lack of movement is notable because the public is heavy on the over (74% of bets at DraftKings and 82% of bets at Circa), yet the line hasn’t risen up to 51 or 52. This indicates a sharp line freeze on the under, with books reluctant to move the total upward despite heavy public betting on a higher scoring game. At DraftKings, the under is receiving 26% of bets and 33% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 18% of bets and 34% of dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split on a lower scoring game. When the total is 47 or more in a postseason game, the under is 28-17 (62%) with a 20% ROI since 2017.

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