Today we wrap up NFL Week 1 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Denver Broncos and Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Denver Broncos at Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 43.5)
The Broncos finished an impressive 14-3 last season and oddsmakers expect another strong performance this year as their win total sits at 9.5 with the over juiced to -125 at DraftKings. On the other hand, the Chiefs went a disappointing 6-11 last year but oddsmakers expect a bounce back campaign this season as their win total sits at 10.5 with the under juiced to -140.
This line opened with Kansas City listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 66% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to grab the points with Denver.
However, despite two-thirds of tickets supporting the Broncos the line has remained relatively stagnant at Chiefs -2.5.
Reading between the lines, this signals a sharp line freeze in favor of Kansas City, as oddsmakers refuse to drop the line in favor of the Broncos despite heaving betting on Denver.
The Chiefs offer notable “fade the trendy dog” buy-low contrarian value as Kansas City is only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised game on ESPN/ABC.
At DraftKings, the Chiefs are receiving 34% of spread bets but 52% of spread dollars. At Circa, Kansas City is taking in 41% of spread bets and 47% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” sharp contrarian split in favor of the home chalk.
In an attempt to mitigate some risk in the event of a tight game, bettors may prefer a Chiefs moneyline play at -135.
Favorites are 11-4 (73%) straight up with an 11% ROI so far in Week 1.
Patrick Mahomes is 47-12 (80%) straight up with a 3% ROI as a home favorite in the regular season.
On the other hand, those looking to back Denver may prefer placing the Broncos in a Wong Teaser. By taking Denver up from +2.5 to +8.5, savvy value-minded bettors can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it tick up from 42.5 to 43.5.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 51% of bets and 55% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 37% of bets along with 57% of dollars. Both books are showing a “low bets, higher dollars” discrepancy in favor of a higher scoring game, especially the wiseguys in the desert.
Overs have gone 9-6 (60%) with a 15% ROI so far in Week 1.
The forecast calls for warm temperatures in the high 80s along with clear skies and 10-14 MPH winds.
