Merry Christmas! Today we have an NFL doubleheader on tap as the Kansas City Chiefs face the Pittsburgh Steelers and the Houston Texans host the Baltimore Ravens. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5-minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.

 

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1 p.m. ET: Kansas City Chiefs (-2.5, 45) at Pittsburgh Steelers

The Chiefs (14-1) have won five straight games and just held off the Texans 27-19, covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Steelers (10-5) have dropped two in a row and just got rolled by the Ravens 34-17, failing to cover as 7-point road dogs.

The early lookahead opener for this game was Steelers -1.5 at home. However, we quickly saw a sizable adjustment in favor of the Chiefs, flipping Kansas City to a 1.5-point road favorite. The public thinks this line is way too short and 64% of spread bets at DraftKings and 72% of spread bets at Circa are laying the points with Kansas City. This lopsided support drove the Chiefs up from -1.5 to -3. However, once the key number of 3 was available we saw sharp buyback on the Steelers +3, dropping the line back down to 2.5. Several shops are juicing up Steelers +2.5 (-115) while others falling down to +2. In other words, the game day movement is breaking back toward Pittsburgh plus the points.

Pittsburgh has notable contrarian value, as they are only receiving roughly one-third of tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised game. The Steelers have buy-low value as an unpopular home dog on a losing streak against a sell-high favorite on a winning streak. This is also a wiseguy system match with “Mike Tomlin as a dog,” who has covered nearly 65% of the time in his career when getting points. Pittsburgh will also welcome back star WR George Pickens, who is expected to play after missing the last three games. Those looking to go contrarian and back the Steelers but also missed out on the key number of +3 could instead target Pittsburgh in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Steelers up from +2.5 to +8.5 (or +2 to +8), bettors can strategically pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.

The early opener for the total was as low as 41. Buoyed by the return of Pickens, we saw a heavy adjustment on the over, driving the total up from 41 to 45. Pros and Joes seem to both be leaning over. At DraftKings, the over is receiving 63% of bets and 65% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 59% of bets and 66% of dollars. The weather looks ideal in Pittsburgh, as the forecast calls for high 30s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.

Player Prop to Consider

Noah Gray Over 18.5 receiving yards (-110): Gray has gone over this number in 5 of his last 6 games and 9 of his last 12 games. He has also gone over this number in 6 straight road games. This is a buy-low play on Gray as well, as he only caught one pass for 10 yards last week against the Texans. Gray ranks 4th on the team in terms of receptions and targets. He is also tied with DeAndre Hopkins for the 3rd-most receiving yards (430).

4:30 p.m. ET: Baltimore Ravens (-6, 47) at Houston Texans

The Ravens (10-5) have won two in a row and just dismissed the Steelers 34-17, covering as 7-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Texans (9-6) just saw their two-game win streak come to an end, falling to the Chiefs 27-19 and failing to cover as 3.5-point road dogs.

This line opened with Baltimore listed as a 3-point road favorite. The public is rushing to the window to lay the points with the Ravens, who are receiving 80% of spread bets at DraftKings and 79% of spread bets at Circa. This lopsided support drove Baltimore up from -3 to -6, with some shops like Circa even reaching -6.5. All movement and liability has been on Baltimore laying chalk, without any discernible buyback on the Texans. The Ravens are likely to be popular public teaser play (-6 down to a pick’em), which means Baltimore just has to win the game straight up and not cover the spread. Houston is the top “bet against the public” play, as the Texans are receiving less than one-quarter of spread bets across the market. The Texans also have buy-low value as a inflated line contrarian dog, as they opened at +3 and are now as high as +6.5.

In terms of the total, it opened at 47.5 and most of the market has fallen slightly down to 47. This half point dip is notable because the public is pounding the over (73% of bets at DraftKings and 68% of bets at Circa), yet the total fell. This indicates a sharp reverse line move on a lower scoring game. Baltimore is 12-3 to the over, the best over team in the NFL. However, Houston is 10-5 to the under, tied for the best under team in the NFL.

Player Prop to Consider

Joe Mixon over 22.5 receiving yards (-110): Mixon has gone over this number in five straight home games. This is also a buy-low over play as Mixon only caught one pass for 14 yards last week against the Chiefs. The Texans are a dog in a high total game, which means they will likely need to focus on the passing game if they are trailing and need to catch up. This game will also be played indoors, which bodes well for offensive output on a fast track.

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