Week 8 of the NFL regular season wraps up tonight with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and Kansas City Chiefs. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Kansas City Chiefs (-11, 48)
The Commanders (3-4) have lost two straight and just got crushed by the Cowboys 44-22, failing to cover as 1.5-point road dogs. On the other hand, the Chiefs (4-3) have won two in a row and just demolished the Raiders 31-0, easily covering as 13.5-point home favorites.
Originally, this line opened with Kansas City listed as a 5.5-point home favorite. However, once Commanders QB Jayden Daniels was ruled out with an injury and Marcus Mariota would get the start in his place, we saw this line skyrocket up from Chiefs -5.5 to -12.5.
However, since that time we’ve seen some sharp buyback on the Commanders, dropping Washington back down from +12.5 to +11, with a few books even down to as low as +10.5. Essentially, all late movement and liability is breaking back toward Washington plus the points.
The public isn’t scared off by the big number and 63% of spread bets at DraftKings and 67% of spread bets at Circa are laying the points with Kansas City.
As a result, Washington is offering “bet against the public” value as the Commanders are only receiving roughly one-third of spread tickets in a heavily bet, nationally televised primetime game.
Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like the Commanders here, are 7-5 ATS (58%) this season and 128-100 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018.
Primetime dogs are 15-9 ATS (62%) this season and 156-135 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dog is getting 6.5-points or more, they have gone 6-1 ATS (86%) this season and 59-39 ATS (60%) with a 15% ROI since 2020.
Road dogs off a loss playing an opponent off a win are 10-6 ATS (63%) with a 19% ROI this season.
Patrick Mahomes is just 10-16 ATS (39%) as a favorite of 10-points or more in his regular season career.
Those looking to back the ugly primetime dog would be wise to shop around, as FanDuel is currently offering Commanders +11.5 (-112) while the rest of the market sits at +11 or +10.5.
In terms of the total, we saw it open as high as 50.5, tumble all the way down to 46.5 and then creep back up to 48 when it sits on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is taking in 36% of bets and 42% of dollars. At Circa, the over is receiving 50% of bets and 54% of dollars.
Primetime unders are 13-14 (48%) this season but 203-150 (58%) with a 10% ROI since 2019. When the total is 47.5 or more, primetime unders are 6-4 (60%) this season and 99-70 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2017.
The forecast calls for mid 50s with cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds at Arrowhead Stadium.
