Tonight we kick off NFL Week 2 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Washington Commanders and Green Bay Packers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Washington Commanders at Green Bay Packers (-3.5, 48.5)
The Commanders (1-0) brushed aside the Giants 21-6 in Week 1, covering as 6.5-point home favorites. Similarly, the Packers (1-0) just dismissed the Lions 27-13, easily covering as 1.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is too short and 62% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Packers at Lambeau.
This lopsided betting pushed Green Bay up from -2.5 to -3.5.
However, instead of the line continuing to move toward the Packers -4, we’ve seen sharp buyback on the inflated Commanders, as Washington is being juiced up +3.5 (-115 or -120), with some books even inching back down to Packers -3. Essentially, late movement is breaking back toward Washington plus the points, with wiseguys jumping on Washington plus the hook.
The Commanders have notable “bet against the public” value, as they are only receiving 39% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game.
At Circa, Washington is taking in 38% of spread bets but a whopping 80% of spread dollars, a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp bet discrepancy and further evidence of the wiseguy wagers out in the desert backing the road dog plus the points.
Short road dogs +6 or less are 312-260 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2019. Primetime dogs are 4-0 ATS so far this season and 145-126 ATS (54%) with a 3% ROI since 2020.
Jayden Daniels is 13-7 ATS (65%) with a 23% ROI in his career, including the postseason. As a dog, Daniels is 5-3 ATS (63%) with a 17% ROI.
For those looking to back Green Bay but wary of a 3-point key number win that doesn’t cover, we’ve seen some respected smart money play the Packers on the moneyline (-175). At Circa, the Packers are receiving 65% of moneyline bets and 93% of moneyline dollars, a sharp bet split in favor of a straight up Green Bay victory.
Thursday Night Football favorites are 204-78 (72%) straight up with a 6% ROI since 2006.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it remain relatively stagnant at 48.5, with some shops touching 49.
At DraftKings, the over is receiving 53% of bets and 50% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 70% of bets and 79% of dollars.
Unders are 12-5 (75%) with a 43% ROI so far this season. Primetime unders are 191-139 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019. When the total is 47.5 or higher, primetime unders are 73-53 (59%) with a 13% ROI since 2019.
Weather shouldn’t be an issue tonight at Lambeau Field, as the forecast calls for mid 60s with partly cloudy skies and mild 5 MPH winds.
