Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 10 with a Monday Night Football showdown between the Philadelphia Eagles and Green Bay Packers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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8:15 p.m. ET: Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (-1.5, 45.5)
The Eagles (6-2) just brushed aside the Giants 38-20, easily covering as 7.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Packers (5-2-1) just lost to the Panthers 16-13, losing outright as 12.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Green Bay listed as a 3-point home favorite.
The public thinks the wrong team is favored and 74% of spread bets at DraftKings are rushing to the window to grab the points with Philadelphia.
This lopsided support forced oddsmakers to drop Green Bay from -3 to -1.5, with some shops showing -1 or even a pick’em.
However, now that the line has fallen so drastically we are starting to see some sharps “fade the trendy dog” and buy-low on the Packers at a reduced price.
At DraftKings, Green Bay is only receiving 26% of spread bets but 46% of spread dollars, a sharp contrarian “low bets, higher dollars” bet split in their favor.
The Packers offer rare “bet against the public” value as an unpopular home favorite in a heavily bet primetime game.
The Packers have additional buy-low value as a favorite coming off a non-cover and straight up loss as a double-digit favorite against a sell-high popular dog coming off a win and easy cover.
Favorites off a loss, like the Packers here, are 33-18 ATS (65%) with a 23% ROI this season. If the favorite off a loss is at home, they improve to 22-11 ATS (67%) with a 27% ROI this season.
Favorites off a loss playing an opponent off a win, the ultimate buy-low, sell-high value play, are 15-6 ATS (71%) with a 36% ROI this season.
Sharps looking to mitigate some risk in the event of a close game have also targeted Green Bay on the moneyline at -110.
Home favorites off a loss are 24-9 (73%) straight up with a 12% ROI this season. Jordan Love is 10-4 (71%) straight up with a 5% ROI at home in his career.
Those looking to back Philadelphia but gain some additional wiggle room could entertain Philadelphia in a Wong Teaser. By taking the Eagles up from +1.5 to +7.5, savvy pros can pass through the top key numbers of 3 and 7.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen the line rise from 44.5 to 45.5, with several books juicing the over 45.5 to -115.
The public is hammering the over and expecting a higher scoring game. At DraftKings, the over is taking in 74% of bets and 75% of dollars. At Circa, the over is taking in 85% of bets and a hefty 97% of dollars.
Overs are 79-68 (54%) with a 2% ROI this season, with non-division overs going 60-47 (56%) with a 7% ROI.
However, we’ve seen primetime unders go 18-15 (55%) with a 4% ROI this season and 208-151 (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2019.
When the primetime total is 45.5 or higher, the under is 125-85 (60%) with a 14% ROI since 2019.
Weather could play a factor tonight, as the forecast calls for freezing temperatures of roughly 30 degrees with partly skies and 7-10 MPH winds at Lambeau Field.
