Tonight we kick off NFL Week 15 with a Thursday Night Football showdown between the Atlanta Falcons and Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for tonight’s primetime matchup using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
Become a VSiN Pro subscriber today and get a full year for just $199 PLUS a copy of The NFL Sharp Betting Playbook by Josh Appelbaum, his new book OUT NOW >> Go here and use promo code BOOK to sign up.
8:15 p.m. ET: Atlanta Falcons at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-5.5, 44)
The Falcons (4-9) have dropped seven of their last eight games and just got crushed by the Seahawks 37-9, failing to cover as 7-point home dogs. Similarly, the Buccaneers (7-6) have lost four of their last five and just fell to the Saints 24-20, losing outright as 7.5-point home favorites.
This line opened with Tampa Bay listed as a 5.5-point home favorite.
The public expects the Buccaneers to get back on track and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings and 75% of spread bets at Circa are laying the points with Tampa Bay at home.
However, despite receiving such lopsided support we’ve seen the Buccaneers remain stagnant at -5.5. In fact, Tampa Bay even touched down as low as -4.5 or even -4 at times during the week.
Reading between the lines, we are seeing a wiseguy “line freeze” in favor of the unpopular Falcons, as the line has stayed the same or even moved in their favor at times despite the public pounding Tampa Bay.
The Falcons have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only taking in roughly one-quarter of spread tickets in a heavily bet primetime game.
Atlanta also matches several betting systems.
Primetime dogs are 23-20 ATS (53%) with a 2% ROI this season and 164-146 ATS (53%) with a 1.5% ROI since 2020. If the primetime dogs is getting 4.5-points or more, they improve to 88-63 ATS (58%) with a 12% ROI since 2020.
Dogs who missed the playoffs the previous season playing an opponent who made the playoffs the previous season are 48-36 ATS (57%) with a 9% ROI this season. Dogs off a blowout loss of 20-points or more, like the Falcons here, are 16-11 ATS (59%) with a 13% ROI this season and 137-106 ATS (56%) with an 8% ROI since 2018.
Short road dogs +6 or less are 40-33 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI this season and 348-289 ATS (55%) with a 5% ROI since 2019.
Atlanta has additional betting system value as a divisional dog, with the built in familiarity and rivalry aspect leveling the playing field and benefiting the team getting points.
When both teams are coming off a loss, as is the case here, the divisional dog is 84-62 ATS (58%) with an 11% ROI since 2020.
In his career, Baker Mayfield is 31-28 ATS (53%) as a dog but just 22-34 ATS (39%) as a favorite, including just 4-7 ATS (36%) as a favorite of 4.5-points or more with the Buccaneers.
In terms of the total, we’ve seen it dip from 44.5 to 44, with a few other books inching down to 43.5 on gameday.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 49% of bets and 51% of dollars. However, Circa is showing 73% of bets and 92% of dollars on the over.
Primetime unders are 27-19 (59%) with a 12% ROI this season and 128-90 (59%) with a 12% ROI since 2022.
Outdoor divisional unders are 24-20 (55%) with a 5% ROI this season and 323-272 (54%) with a 5% ROI since 2017.
The forecast calls for mid 50s with clear skies and mild 5-10 MPH winds at Raymond James Stadium.
