Tonight we wrap up NFL Week 7 with a Monday Night Football doubleheader. Let’s examine where smart money is leaning for both games using our VSiN NFL Betting Splits, which are updated every 5 minutes and come directly from DraftKings and Circa Sports.
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7 p.m. ET: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Detroit Lions (-6, 53.5)
The Buccaneers (5-1) just brushed aside the 49ers 30-19, easily covering as 3.5-point home favorites. On the other hand, the Lions (4-2) just fell to the Chiefs 30-17, failing to cover as 2.5-point road dogs.
This line opened with Detroit listed as a 4.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is a bit high and 56% of spread bets at DraftKings are taking the points with Tampa Bay, who has the better won-loss record.
However, despite a majority of tickets backing Tampa Bay we’ve actually seen this line move further toward Detroit -4.5 to -6, with some shops even inching up to -6.5. This signals sharp “fade the trendy dog” reverse line movement on the Lions, as the line has moved in their favor despite being the unpopular play.
At DraftKings, the Lions are receiving 44% of spread bets and 67% of spread dollars. At Circa, Detroit is taking in 60% of spread bets and a whopping 93% of spread dollars. Both books are showing a wiseguy “low bets, higher dollars” bet discrepancy in favor of the home chalk.
Detroit has buy-low value as an unpopular favorite off a loss in which they failed to cover against a sell-high trendy underdog off a win and cover.
The Lions also have correlative betting value as a favorite in a high total game (53.5), with the more expected points scored making it easier for the favorite to cover the number.
In terms of the total, it opened at 53.5 and the public expects a shootout with 76% of bets at DraftKings taking the over.
However, despite this heavy over betting the total has remained stagnant at 53.5 and even dipped down to 53 or 52.5 at some shops. It never touched 54. This signals some line freeze liability and reverse line movement on the under, as the total has stayed the same or fallen despite the public pounding the over.
At Circa, the under is receiving 17% of bets but 53% of dollars, a sharp contrarian split in favor of a lower scoring game.
10 p.m. ET: Houston Texans at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 41.5)
The Texans (2-3) just dominated the Ravens 44-10, easily covering as 2.5-point road favorites. Meanwhile, the Seahawks (4-2) just took down the Jaguars 20-12, covering as 1.5-point road favorites.
This line opened with Seattle listed as a 2.5-point home favorite.
The public thinks this line is way too short and 73% of spread bets at DraftKings are laying the points with the Seahawks.
This lopsided betting pushed Seattle up from -2.5 to -3. However, we’ve seen some resistance and sneaky buyback on Houston as oddsmakers are reluctant to pass through the key number of 3 and move up to -3.5 despite the public hammering Seattle.
The Texans have notable “bet against the public” value as they are only receiving 27% of spread bets in a heavily bet primetime game.
At Circa, Houston is taking in 21% of spread bets but a whopping 73% of spread dollars, a massive “low bets, higher dollars” split and further evidence of the sharps out in Vegas backing the road dog plus the points.
Primetime dogs are 15-6 ATS (71%) this season and 156-132 ATS (54%) with a 4% ROI since 2020.
Houston enjoys a “rest vs tired” advantage, as the Texans were off last week while the Seahawks played the Jaguars.
The Texans have additional correlative betting value as a dog in a low total game (41.5), with the fewer amount of expected points scored making it harder for the favorite to cover.
Those looking to contrarian and back the dog would be wise to shop around for the hook, as ESPN BET is currently offering Texans +3.5 (-125) while the rest of the market sits at Houston +3.
Sharps have also hit the under, dropping the total from 42 to 41.5, with some books down to 41.
At DraftKings, the under is receiving 33% of bets and 61% of dollars. At Circa, the under is taking in 63% of bets and 85% of dollars. Both books are showing a notable “low bets, higher dollars” sharp split in favor of a lower scoring game.
The forecast calls for mid 50s with cloudy skies, mild 5 MPH winds with a 30% chance of rain at Lumen Field.
